Day two of Doncaster’s St Leger meeting features a contest even older than the final Classic, with the Doncaster Cup first run in 1766. Matty Sutcliffe has a big outside tip in that race among four in total for Friday.
Published: 4.25pm Wednesday, 11th September (Odds correct at time of writing)
1:50 Doncaster Betfred Mallard Handicap (Class 2) (3yo+ 0-105) – Quantum Leap 12/1 1pt EW 3 places
Horses who ran at York’s Ebor meeting last time out have an excellent record (7/10) in the Mallard handicap, which brings Shadow Dance and QUANTUM LEAP into contention. The former was an impressive winner of the Sky Bet Handicap over 1m4f, but was flattered by his track position throughout and a subsequent 5lbs rise might be enough to take him on off top-weight. Regarding the latter, Quantum Leap is far from straight forward and his habitual slow starts have prevented him from showing his true talent. That said, his form figures this season read 2434, with consistent RPR’s of 88, 87, 87, 87 and his furthest beaten distance was four lengths last time out at York over two miles, a race in which we can certainly upgrade.
Throughout the Ebor meeting at York, horses held up had almost no chance at all with the majority, if not all of the winners of races over a mile+ coming from the front. Quantum Leap was once again slowly away in rear from stall thirteen, though wasn’t entirely detached in rear and raced with more early enthusiasm than previously. He was stone last coming off the bend, but made encouraging headway through the field down the unfavourable outer, posting the highest finishing speed percentage (112.86%) of the field and clocked the quickest furlong (14th) of any horse in the field. That tells us that he has plenty of speed for a stayer, and it’s a case of keeping him engaged early to give him the best possible chance of winning.
With no guaranteed front runner in the field, and only two confirmed to race prominently, this will favour the chances of Quantum Leap as he’ll likely be attached to the field from flag fall, as opposed to playing catchup. He’s on a handy enough mark in 82 given he was only 3/4 a length behind Faylaq at Hamilton giving him 2lbs who’s subsequently rated 6lbs higher, and he was an 11/2 shot for this contest off 5lbs last season when evidently not giving his running. Providing he’s not detached too far early on, then a repeat of his finishing effort from last time out might be enough for him to win here, for all the two progressive 3yos heading the market have to be feared.
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2:25 Doncaster – Betfred Flying Scotsman Stakes (Listed Race) (Class 1) (2yo) – Mukaber 20/1 0.5pt EW 2 places
There’s only been two once-raced winners of this contest in the last ten renewals (2018, 2013) and while connections were responsible for one of those, Jonquil looks short enough at 11/8 for all he looked promising when overcoming adversity in running last time out.
Five of the last seven renewals were won by a horse with three runs already under there belt, and of the ones with experience the outsider MUKABER is of major interest. The gelded son of No Nay Never has taken a while to come to hand, unsurprisingly as he’s a huge, raw sort, but he put his experience to good use when looking a much more furnished stamp of a thoroughbred at Newbury last time out, making all on the far-side under Jamie Spencer and coming home 3 1/4 lengths to the good from the Aidan O’Brien-trained favourite.
That was a taking performance, and one that smacked of class and given that was his first try over the seven furlongs, plenty more improvement can be expected. Jamie Spencer stated after he was surprised it’s taken him this long to come good, so they evidently think a bit of him and he’s well birthed in stall two to make all. What’s more interesting, is that Newbury maiden was won last season by Dancing Gemini, who later followed up in convincing style in this contest. While he lacks the flashy profile of some, he can put his experience to good use and this long, galloping flat track will surely suit.
3:00 Doncaster – Carlsberg Danish Pilsner Flying Childers Stakes (Group 2) (Class 1) (2yo) – Maw Lam 16/1 0.5pt EW (4 places Coral, Hills, Boyles, 365)
This has the potential to be ran at a seriously furious clip with Big Mojo, Aesterius, Tropical Storm, Mr Lightside, Arizona Blaze, Zayer and King’s Call all having made all last time out, and should those burn each other up from the front then it’s highly plausible to think the winner of this race will come from rear.
With that in mind, MAW LAM will be suited to the shape of the race and the booking of James Spencer tells you exactly how she’ll be ridden. The daughter of Acclamation is 0-4 since her cosy debut success, but hasn’t been disgraced in all those subsequent efforts. She was beaten half a length when 7/2F for the Hilary Needler at Beverley, though somewhat of an unlucky loser given she suffered a poor passage in rear. Maw Lam then stepped up massively on that form when a two length third in the Queen Mary at Ascot behind subsequent Lowther third Celandine, and she was again potentially unsuited by her track position when not given a clear run. She matched that form when faring best of those in rear in the G2 Duchess of Cambridge stakes, and arguably should’ve won a listed contest in Deauville next time out.
Fillies have won two of the recent renewals so her handy 3lbs allowance can be factored in, and on collateral form she’s bang there with the protagonists. I think she’s a shade overpriced at 16s, particularly given she will have the race perfectly set up for her with Jamie Spencer making his first ride for the yard. Her sire was 2/2 here including at this meeting, and her damsire also won a conditions race at this meeting in 2004.
3:35 Doncaster – Betfred Howard Wright Doncaster Cup Stakes (Group 2) (British Champions Series) (Class 1) (3yo+) – Wise Eagle 50/1 0.5pt EW 2 places
Outside of Kyprios, the staying division is seriously weak and even the second tier of the old guard in Coltrane and Trueshan appear to be over the top at this stage. Sweet William and Gregory have been flattered in their recent proximity to Kyprios who does nothing out in front, and Point Lonsdale didn’t appear to stay two miles at York last time out, so he may be vulnerable over this longer trip.
I’ve long thought there was a big race in WISE EAGLE, who wasn’t suited by the firm going in the Ebor last time out from a pound off top-weight. If we were to draw a line through that effort and instead judge him on his third in the G3 Silver Cup at York, then he’s entitled to be in with a squeak here. He travelled strongly throughout in that contest, and given 1m6f is slightly inadequate these days, his length proximity to the 112 rated Al Qareem bodes well for the ratings he’s up against in this field.
His form figures between 2m-2m2f reads 12181120, and he’s 2/2 at this particular distance. Combine the latter with the fact he has course form at this meeting, this will likely have been the aim all season and this easier racing surface should see him in a better light. His record in fields of six or under reads 114112 which further bodes well, and if the yard have him in peak condition then he can spring a surprise at lofty odds against some of these exposed/flattered sorts.
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