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Dublin Racing Festival Trends 2025 – Day One

Since the Dublin Racing Festival was introduced in 2018, we’ve seen some incredible action over the two days. Some races were run around this weekend before although a few of those have been upgraded for this Festival. I’ve looked at the seven runnings since its inception but have gone back to the last decade for races where their conditions haven’t really changed.

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I’ve also included a last winners list below the trends which offer a view to where they have historically headed to the Cheltenham Festival. With the prize money on offer at this meeting though, it’s no surprise to see lots of horses who clearly have these races as a target rather than looking into the spring.

Novice Hurdle (Grade 1) – 2m 6½f (Race Upgraded for DRF)

  • ALL of the 7 winners had not run further than 2m 4½f
  • 6 of the 7 winners last ran between 37 and 49 days ago
  • 6 of the 7 winners were aged 5 or 7 (both profitable to back blind)
  • 6 of the 7 winners last ran at Leopardstown or Navan (both profitable to back blind)
  • 6 of the 7 winners had either 2 or 3 runs that season
  • 5 of the 7 winners won last time out

Winners and Cheltenham Race Run (Finishing Position)

2024 – Dancing City (FR) – Albert Bartlett (3rd)

2023 – Good Land (FR) – Turners Novices Hurdle (4th)

2022 – Minella Cocooner (IRE) – Albert Bartlett (2nd)

2021 – Gaillard Du Mesnil (FR) – Turners Novices Hurdle (2nd)

2020 – Latest Exhibition (IRE) – Albert Bartlett (2nd)

2019 – Commander Of Fleet (IRE) – Albert Bartlett (2nd)

2018 – Tower Bridge (IRE) – Albert Bartlett (5th)

Juvenile Hurdle (Grade 1) – 2m

  • ALL of the last 10 winners placed Top 3 last time out
  • 8 of the last 10 winners last ran between 36 and 48 days ago
  • 8 of the last 10 winners placed Top 2 last time out
  • 6 of the last 10 winners came from the Top 2 in the betting
  • 6 of the last 10 winners were French Bred (last 3)
  • 6 of the last 10 winners were trained by Willie Mullins (profitable to back blind)
  • 6 of the last 10 winners last ran at Leopardstown

Winners and Cheltenham Race Run (Finishing Position)

2024 – Kargese (FR) – Triumph Hurdle (2nd)

2023 – Gala Marceau (FR) – Triumph Hurdle (2nd)

2022 – Vauban (FR) – Triumph Hurdle (1st)

2021 – Quilixios (GB) – Triumph Hurdle (1st)

2020 – A Wave Of The Sea (IRE) – Triumph Hurdle (7th)

2019 – Sir Erec (IRE) – Triumph Hurdle (DNF)

2018 – Mr Adjudicator (GB) – Triumph Hurdle (2nd)

2017 – Mega Fortune (FR) – Triumph Hurdle (2nd)

2016 – Footpad (FR) – Triumph Hurdle (3rd)

2015 – Petite Parisienne (FR) – Triumph Hurdle (5th)

Handicap Hurdle (Listed Race) – 3m ½f (Race Upgraded for DRF)

  • ALL of the 7 winners were aged between 6 and 9
  • 6 of the 7 winners carried less than 11 stone
  • 6 of the 7 winners had an OR of 125 to 130 (the other was 137)
  • 5 of the last 7 winners were Irish Bred
  • 4 of the 7 winners ran at Leopardstown last time out
  • 4 of the 7 winners won last time out

Winners and Cheltenham Race Run (Finishing Position)

2024 – Maxxum (IRE) – No Race

2023 – Perceval Legallois (FR) – No Race

2022 – Good Time Jonny (IRE) – Albert Bartlett (9th)

2021 – Maze Runner (IRE) – No Race

2020 – Treacysenniscorthy (IRE) – No Race

2019 – Dallas Des Pictons (FR) – Martin Pipe (2nd)

2018 – Total Recall (IRE) – Gold Cup (Fell)

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Irish Arkle (Grade 1) – 2m 1f

  • ALL of the last 10 winners last ran between 21 and 45 days ago
  • ALL of the last 10 winners came from the Top 3 in the betting
  • ALL of the last 10 winners were priced 6/1 or shorter
  • 9 of the last 10 winners were aged 6 or 7 (5yo’s are 0 from 7)
  • 9 of the last 10 winners won last time out (the other was second)
  • 8 of the last 10 winners were French Bred
  • 7 of the last 10 winners were trained by Willie Mullins
  • 7 of the last 10 winners had NOT won over further than 2m1f

Winners and Cheltenham Race Run (Finishing Position)

2024 – Il Etait Temps (FR) – Arkle (3rd)

2023 – El Fabiolo (FR) – Arkle (1st)

2022 – Blue Lord (FR) – Arkle (3rd)

2021 – Energumene (FR) – No Race

2020 – Notebook (GER) – Arkle (6th)

2019 – Le Richebourg (FR) – No Race

2018 – Footpad (FR) – Arkle (1st)

2017 – Some Plan (IRE) – Arkle (6th)

2016 – Douvan (FR) – Arkle (1st)

2015 – Un De Sceaux (FR) – Arkle (1st)

Irish Gold Cup (Grade 1) – 3m ½f

  • 9 of the last 10 winners were aged 9 or younger
  • 9 of the last 10 winners had an OR of 157 or higher
  • 8 of the last 10 winners last ran between 36 and 47 days ago
  • 7 of the last 10 winners last ran at Leopardstown
  • 7 of the last 10 winners were priced 4/1 or shorter
  • 5 of the last 10 winners won last time out (£17.46 Profit Blind – 145% ROI)

Winners and Cheltenham Race Run (Finishing Position)

2024 – Galopin Des Champs (FR) – Gold Cup (1st)

2023 – Galopin Des Champs (FR) – Gold Cup (1st)

2022 – Conflated (IRE) – Ryanair (Fell)

2021 – Kemboy (FR) – Gold Cup (9th)

2020 – Delta Work (FR) – Gold Cup (5th)

2019 – Bellshill (IRE) – Gold Cup (PU)

2018 – Edwulf (GB) – Gold Cup (8th)

2017 – Sizing John (GB) – Gold Cup (1st)

2016 – Carlingford Lough (IRE) – Gold Cup (4th)

2015 – Carlingford Lough (IRE) – Gold Cup (9th)

Handicap Chase – 2m 1f (Race Upgraded for DRF)

  • ALL of the 7 winners were no older than 7 (backing 5yo’s & 6yo’s blind is profitable)
  • ALL of the 7 winners last run between 27 and 56 days ago (last 4 were 40-49)
  • 6 of the 7 winners had an OR between 132 and 142
  • 5 of the 7 winners had won over 2m4f or further
  • 4 of the 7 winners placed Top 3 last time out
  • 4 of the 7 winners came from the Top 3 in the betting
  • 3 of the 7 winners last ran at Leopardstown

Winners and Cheltenham Race Run (Finishing Position)

2024 – Madara (FR) – Grand Annual (9th)

2023 – Final Orders (GB) – Grand Annual (5th)

2022 – A Wave Of The Sea (IRE) – Plate (15th)

2021 – A Wave Of The Sea (IRE) – Grand Annual (9th)

2020 – Eclair De Beaufeu (FR) – Grand Annual (2nd)

2019 – Quamino (GER) – Novices’ Handicap Chase (PU)

2018 – Patricks Park (IRE) – No Race

Future Stars I.N.H Flat Race (Grade 2) – 2m (New for DRF)

Trends

  • ALL of the 7 winners had won last time out
  • 6 of the 7 winners last ran between 39 and 71 days ago
  • 5 of the 7 winners were Irish Bred
  • 5 of the 7 winners were sent off favourite (not the last two)
  • 5 of the 7 winners were 5-year-olds
  • 5 of the 7 winners last ran at Leopardstown or Navan
  • 4 of the 7 winners were trained by Willie Mullins and ridden by Patrick Mullins

Winners and Cheltenham Race Run (Finishing Position)

2024 – Jeroboam Machin (FR) – No Race

2023 – A Dream To Share (IRE) – Champion Bumper (1st)

2022 – Facile Vega (IRE) – Champion Bumper (1st)

2021 – Kilcruit (IRE) – Champion Bumper (2nd)

2020 – Appreciate It (IRE) – Champion Bumper (2nd)

2019 – Envoi Allen (FR) – Champion Bumper (1st)

2018 – Blackbow (IRE) – Champion Bumper (5th)

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