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Dublin Racing Festival Trends 2025 – Day Two

Since the Dublin Racing Festival was introduced in 2018, we’ve seen some incredible action over the two days. Some races were run around this weekend before although a few of those have been upgraded for this Festival. I’ve looked at the seven runnings since it’s inception but have gone back to the last decade for races where their conditions haven’t really changed.

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I’ve also included a last winners list below the trends which offer a view to where they have historically headed to the Cheltenham Festival. With the prize money on offer at this meeting though, it’s no surprise to see lots of horses who clearly have these races as a target rather than looking into the spring.

Mares’ Handicap Hurdle – 2m 2f (Race Upgraded for DRF)

Trends

  • ALL of the 7 winners finished Top 5 last time out
  • 6 of the 7 winners last ran between 24 and 63 days ago
  • 6 of the 7 winners carried between 10-0 and 10-12
  • 6 of the 7 winners had run at 2m 4f or further in their career
  • 5 of the 7 winners were aged 5 or 6
  • 5 of the 7 winners had an OR of between 116 and 126
  • 5 of the 7 winners were Irish Bred
  • 4 of the 7 winners were priced 14/1 or bigger
  • 4 of the 7 winners finished Top 2 last time out
  • 4 of the 7 winners last ran at Fairyhouse or Leopardstown

Winners and Cheltenham Race Run (Finishing Position)

2024 – Brucio (GB) – No Race

2023 – Ballybawn Belter (IRE) – No Race

2022 – Party Central (IRE) – Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle (7th)

2021 – Heaven Help Us (IRE) – Coral Cup (1st)

2020 – Black Tears (GB) – Coral Cup (2nd)

2019 – Sassy Diva (IRE) – No Race

2018 – Alletrix (IRE) – No Race

Novice Chase (Grade 1) – 2m 5 ½f

  • 9 of the last 10 winners last ran between 37 and 45 days ago
  • 9 of the last 10 winners came from the Top 2 in the betting
  • 8 of the last 10 winners had raced at 3 miles or further before in their career
  • 7 of the last 10 winners were sent off favourite
  • 7 of the last 10 winners won last time out
  • 6 of the last 10 winners last ran at Leopardstown

Winners and Cheltenham Race Run (Finishing Position)

2024 – Fact To File (FR) – Brown Advisory (1st)

2023 – Mighty Potter (FR) – Turners Novices’ Chase (3rd)* Race no longer exists

2022 – Galopin Des Champs (FR) – Turners Novices’ Chase (Fell)* Race no longer exists

2021 – Monkfish (IRE) – Brown Advisory (1st)

2020 – Faugheen (IRE) – Turners Novices’ Chase (3rd)* Race no longer exists

2019 – La Bague Au Roi (FR) – No Race

2018 – Monalee (IRE) – Brown Advisory (2nd)

2017 – Disko (FR) – Turners Novices’ Chase (3rd)* Race no longer exists

2016 – Outlander (IRE) – Turners Novices’ Chase (Fell)* Race no longer exists

2015 – Apache Stronghold (IRE) – Turners Novices’ Chase (2nd)* Race no longer exists

Novice Hurdle (Grade 1) – 2m

  • 9 of the last 10 winners were trained by Willie Mullins (£19.61 profit & 50% ROI)
  • 8 of the last 10 winners were aged 5 or 6 (7yo’s have the best strike rate with 2-7)
  • 8 of the last 10 winners last ran between 37 and 47 days ago
  • 8 of the last 10 winners ran at Leopardstown last time out
  • 7 of the last 10 winners had run twice that season
  • 7 of the last 10 winners won last time out
  • 7 of the last 10 winners had not run further than 2m1f in their career

Winners and Cheltenham Race Run (Finishing Position)

2024 – Ballyburn (IRE) – Turners Novices’ Hurdle (1st)

2023 – Il Etait Temps (FR) – Supreme (5th)

2022 – Sir Gerhard (IRE) – Turners Novices’ Hurdle (1st)

2021 – Appreciate It (IRE) – Supreme (1st)

2020 – Asterion Forlonge (FR) – Supreme (4th)

2019 – Klassical Dream (FR) – Supreme (1st)

2018 – Samcro (IRE) – Turners Novices’ Hurdle (1st)

2017 – Bacardys (FR) – Turners Novices’ Hurdle (PU)

2016 – Bleu Et Rouge (FR) – Albert Bartlett (Fell)

2015 – Nichols Canyon (GB) – Turners Novices’ Hurdle (3rd)

Dublin Chase (Grade 1) – 2m 1f (Race Introduced for DRF)

  • ALL of the 7 winners were trained by Willie Mullins
  • ALL of the 7 winners last ran between 36 and 64 days ago
  • ALL of the 7 winners were French Bred
  • 6 of the 7 winners were sent off favourite
  • 5 of the 7 winners finished top two last time out
  • 5 of the 7 winners had an OR of 167 or higher
  • 4 of the 7 winners last ran at Leopardstown

Winners and Cheltenham Race Run (Finishing Position)

2024 – El Fabiolo (FR) – Champion Chase (PU)

2023 – Gentleman De Mee (FR) – No Race

2022 – Chacun Pour Soi (FR) – Champion Chase (UR)

2021 – Chacun Pour Soi (FR) – Champion Chase (3rd)

2020 – Chacun Pour Soi (FR) – No Race

2019 – Min (FR) – Champion Chase (4th)

2018 – Min (FR) – Champion Chase (2nd)

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Handicap Chase (Grade 3) – 2m 5½f

  • ALL of the last 10 winners did NOT win last time out
  • 9 of the last 10 winners had NOT won at 3 miles or further
  • 8 of the last 10 winners came from the Top 5 in the betting (2 favourites)
  • 8 of the last 10 winners carried less than 11 stone
  • 8 of the last 10 winners had run at 3 miles or further
  • 7 of the last 10 winners last ran between 21 and 41 days ago
  • 7 of the last 10 winners had an OR of between 133 and 143
  • 7 of the last 10 winners were Irish Bred
  • 7 of the last 10 winners were aged 6 or 7 (both profitable to back blind)

Winners and Cheltenham Race Run (Finishing Position)

2024 – Heart Wood (FR) – No Race

2023 – The Goffer (IRE) – Ultima (4th)

2022 – Birchdale (IRE) – No Race

2021 – Off You Go (IRE) – No Race

2020 – Glamorgan Duke (IRE) – No Race

2019 – Whisperinthebreeze (GB) – NH Chase (Fell)* Race No Longer Exists

2018 – Last Goodbye (IRE) – Plate (10th)

2017 – A Toi Phil (FR) – No Race

2016 – Empire Of Dirt (IRE) – Plate (1st)

2015 – Foxrock (IRE) – Ryanair (12th)

Irish Champion Hurdle (Grade 1) – 2m

  • 9 of the last 10 winners were sent off favourite (None priced bigger than 6/5)
  • 9 of the last 10 winners won last time out
  • 9 of the last 10 winners were aged between 6 and 8
  • 9 of the last 10 winners had won at 2m3½f or further in their career
  • 9 of the last 10 winners last ran at Leopardstown or Fairyhouse
  • 7 of the last 10 winners last ran between 27 and 37 days ago
  • 7 of the last 10 winners were unbeaten that season

Winners and Cheltenham Race Run (Finishing Position)

2024 – State Man (FR) – Champion Hurdle (1st)

2023 – State Man (FR) –  Champion Hurdle (2nd)

2022 – Honeysuckle (GB) – Champion Hurdle (1st)

2021 – Honeysuckle (GB) – Champion Hurdle (1st)

2020 – Honeysuckle (GB) – Mares’ Hurdle (1st)

2019 – Apples Jade (FR) – Champion Hurdle (6th)

2018 – Supasundae (GB) – Stayers’ Hurdle (2nd)

2017 – Petit Mouchoir (FR) – Champion Hurdle (3rd)

2016 – Faugheen (IRE) – No Race

2015 – Hurricane Fly (IRE) – Champion Hurdle (3rd)

Handicap Hurdle – 2m

  • 9 of the last 10 winners were Irish bred
  • 9 of the last 10 winners were aged between 5 and 7
  • 8 of the last 10 winners had run in the last 50 days (other two inside 70 days)
  • 8 of the last 10 winners did NOT win last time out
  • 7 of the last 10 winners carried 10-10 or less
  • 4 of the last 10 winners last ran at Fairyhouse

Winners and Cheltenham Race Run (Finishing Position)

2024 – Lord Erskine (IRE) – No Race

2023 – Gaelic Warrior (GER) – Turners Novices’ Hurdle (2nd)

2022 – Call Me Lyreen (IRE) – County Hurdle (14th)

2021 – Drop The Anchor (IRE) – County Hurdle (7th)

2020 – Thosedaysaregone (IRE) – Coral Cup (3rd)

2019 – Off You Go (IRE) – No Race

2018 – Off You Go (IRE) – No Race

2017 – Ice Cold Soul (IRE) – No Race

2016 – Henry Higgins (IRE) – County Hurdle (21st)

2015 – Katie T (IRE) – No Race

Mares’ I.N.H Flat Race (Grade 2) – 2m (Race Upgraded for DRF)

  • 6 of the 7 winners only had one run that season
  • 6 of the 7 winners were NOT the favourite
  • 6 of the 7 winners won last time out
  • 5 of the 7 winners did NOT run inside the last 50 days
  • 5 of the 7 winners were sent off double-figure prices

Winners and Cheltenham Race Run (Finishing Position)

2024 – Fleur Au Fusil (FR) – Champion Bumper (7th)

2023 – Fun Fun Fun (IRE) – Champion Bumper (15th)

2022 – Lily Du Berlais (GB) – No Race

2021 – Grangee (FR) – Champion Bumper (6th)

2020 – Darling Daughter (IRE) – Champion Bumper (15th)

2019 – Santa Rossa (IRE) – No Race

2018 – Relegate (IRE) – Champion Bumper (1st)

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