Coral Eclipse Trends – All Age Group 1 Analysed

Some big names are on the honours roll for the Eclipse and I can’t remember a bad winner of this race. With the likelihood that Ombudsman comes here off the back of a 130 RPR in the Prince Of Wales’s Stakes, he’s another potential world-class winner in waiting of this race.

KEY TRENDS

• 3-year-olds have been the ones to side with, and 4-year-olds are ones to avoid
• Most likely to be sent off with an SP of 8/1 or shorter
• Should be Officially Rated 118 or higher but look to those 120 or higher
• Likely to have last run in a Group 1 and in the last 5 weeks
• Probably ran at 10 furlongs or further last time out and should have at least placed
• No need for Sandown form, but if has run here, should have won here too
• Probably has raced 2-4 times this season and has won this season
• Must be a Group winner and should be a Group 1 winner already

Focused Trends

AGE

• 3yo – 11/25 (44%) & 7/10 (70%)
• 4yo – 6/25 (24%) & 1/10 (10%)
• 5yo – 8/25 (32%) & 2/10 (20%)

3-year-olds have won the last four renewals and they’re responsible for 7 of the last 10 winners. Each of those 3-year-old winners were either the first or second favourite.

4-year-olds have the worst strike-rate both this century and in the last 10 running’s but each of the 3, 4 and 5-year-olds have around the same place strike-rate (33%) this century which may interest EW or place only bettors.

FAVOURITES

• First favourites – 11/25 (44%) & 6/10 (60%)
• First and second favourites – 17/25 (68%) & 9/10 (90%)
• Priced 8/1 or shorter – 23/25 (92%) & 10/10 (100%)
• Favourites in a field of 7 or less – 9/13 (69%) & 5/8 (63%)
• Favourites in a field of 8 or more – 2/12 (16%) & 1/2 (50%)

Favourites in this race do not show a profit this century blind, but it’s a small loss maker and they show a slight profit in the last decade. Interestingly, in fields of 7 or less, favourites performed better than in fields of 8 or more so that’s worth noting.

All bar two winners were priced with an SP of 8/1 or shorter and the others were priced 12/1 and 14/1. Maybe we’re due a shock winner but it does seem that the market has a good handle on which horses can and can’t win this race.

DRAW

• Drawn in the TOP half – 14/25 (56%) & 6/10 (60%)
• Drawn in the BOTTOM half – 11/25 (44%) & 4/10 (40%)

No major bias in the draw being in the top of bottom half as an overall view but again splitting the renewals by fields of 7 or less and 8 or more shows a slightly different view. In fields of 8 or more two thirds of winners were drawn in the top half and in fields of 7 or less the split is 6 from the top half and 7 from the bottom half. Not hugely relevant I don’t think, but interesting none the less.

OFFICIAL RATING

• Winners with an OR of 118 or more – 22/25 (88%) & 9/10 (90%)
• Winners with an OR of 120 or more – 17/24 (68%) & 7/10 (70%)

All winners have held an OR of 110 and all bar one winner held an OR of 115 or higher. The vast majority of winners held an OR of 118 or higher but over two-thirds held an OR of 120 or higher. Another factor that suggests there are no bad winners of the Eclipse, and it takes a proven horse to land this race. The last 6 winners all held an OR of 120+.

LAST TIME OUT

• Ran at 10 furlongs or more – 19/25 (76%) & 9/10 (90%)
• Won last time out – 13/25 (52%) & 8/10 (80%)
• Placed last time out – 19/25 (76%) & 10/10 (100%)
• Ran in the last 5 weeks – 23/25 (92%) & 9/10 (90%)
• Ran in a Group 1 – 21/25 (84%) & 9/10 (90%)
• Ran at Royal Ascot* – 16/25 (64%) & 3/10 (30%)
• Ran in the Derby – 5/25 (20%) & 3/10 (30%)

*Including the 2005 in these figures which was run at York

The winner of The Eclipse should be coming from a Group 1 race and that race should be within the last 5 weeks. Look to horses coming from The Derby or Royal Ascot but take note of those who ran in the Prix Du Jockey Club too.

They should have run at 10f or further last time out and they should have at least placed

COURSE FORM

• Winners who had RUN at Sandown – 7/25 (28%) & 1/10 (10%)
• Winners who had WON at Sandown – 6/7 (86%) & 1/1 (100%)

Previous course form isn’t essential although any horse who has already race at Sandown should have won here too. All of the 3-year-old winners had NOT been to Sandown before

DISTANCE FORM

• Winners who had RUN over about 10 furlongs – 18/25 (72%) & 8/10 (80%)
• Winners who had WON over about 10 furlongs – 14/18 (78%) & 7/8 (88%)

Most winners of this race will have run at about 10 furlongs, and they are likely to have won at the trip too. Of the 7 winners who did NOT run at about 10 furlongs before this race, 6 were 3yo’s so they don’t need to have run at the trip yet but every single winner older had run at about this distance.

SEASON FORM

• Had raced 2 -4 times – 22/25 (88%) & 9/10 (90%)
• Had won a race – 18/25 (72%) & 9/10 (90%)

Most winners of this race had run 2-4 times which is consistent across both periods and most winners had won already that season too

GROUP FORM

• Had won a Group race – 25/25 (100%) & 10/10 (100%)
• Had won a Group 1 – 21/25 (84%) & 7/10 (70%)
• Had won a Group 2 or better – 23/25 (92%) & 8/10 (80%)

Every winner of this race this century had already won a Group race of some kind. The vast majority have won a Group 1 before now so the bar is set quite high.