The Eider Chase is seen as a Grand National Trial with Comply Or Die taking both in 2008. There are 24 fences to be jumped over a trip of 4m 1½f.
I’ve looked at all runnings this century and compared those with the last ten renewals to see if I can point out any notable patterns.
KEY TRENDS
- Look towards 9-year-olds (profitable to back blind and the highest strike rate)
- Respect 3rd and 4th favourites
- Holds an Official Rating of 131 to 140
- Carrying 10-13 to 11-6
- Not wearing any headgear
- No more than 2 wins this season
- Has won over 3m2f or further before now
Focused Trends
AGE
- 7yo – 2/20 (10%) & 1/10 (10%)
- 8yo – 3/20 (15%) & 0/10 (0%)
- 9yo – 10/20 (50%) & 7/10 (70%)
- 10yo – 3/20 (15%) & 1/10 (10%)
- 11yo – 2/20 (10%) & 1/10 (10%)
The standout age here are 9-year-olds and they run at the highest strike rate by some way. They are also profitable to back blind.
PRICE
- Favourites – 4/20 (20%) & 2/10 (20%)
- 3rd or 4th in the betting – 8/20 (40%) & 6/10 (60%)
- Priced 9/2 to 12/1 – 14/20 (70%) & 8/10 (80%)
Favourites are a loss maker both this century and in the last 10 renewals. They outperform second favourites who are winless since 2009, but 3rd and 4th favourites are both profitable to back blind this century and in the last 10.
Most winner were priced between 9/2 and 12/1 but that’s only profitable blind in the last 10 running’s. However, backing all runners priced 9/2 to 8/1 had made money across both periods.
RATINGS AND WEIGHT
- Winners with an OR between 131 and 140 – 13/20 (65%) & 7/10 (70%)
- Winners carrying 10-13 to 11-6 – 13/20 (65%) & 8/10 (80%)
Using either of these ranges, the OR or the weight carried, would have been profitable to back blind across both time frames
If combining both these metrics you’d have found 8 winners this century and returned an 85% ROI to SP. Moving into the last decade, it’s found 6 winners and returned a 46% ROI to SP.
LAST TIME OUT
- Won last time out – 7/20 (35%) & 3/10 (30%)
- Didn’t complete last time out – 4/20 (20%) & 4/10 (40%)
Last time out winners have been a loss maker across both periods but interestingly in the last 10 running’s we’ve had 4 winners who failed to complete last time out which is now a money maker to follow blind.
COURSE FORM
- Winners who had RUN at Newcastle – 6/20 (30%) & 4/10 (40%)
- Winners who had WON at Newcastle – 3/6 (50%) & 3/4 (75%)
Around two-thirds of winners had not run at Newcastle before but half of those who had run here had won here too. It’s clearly not essential to have course form, but it would be preferable if you’ve been here to have won here too, especially looking at more recent renewals.
CHASE FORM
- Had won at 3 miles 2 furlongs or further – 19/20 (95%) & 9/10 (90%)
- Winners who had 3 to 5 runs this season – 15/20 (75%) & 8/10 (80%)
- Winners who had 0 to 2 wins this season – 18/20 (90%) & 9/10 (90%)
All bar one winner had already won at 3m 2f or further and typically most winners had won no more than twice this season. The majority also had 3-5 runs this season.
HEADGEAR
- Winners without headgear or a tongue-tie – 15/20 (75%) & 8/10 (80%)
Most winners of this race are not sporting headgear or a tongue-tie and in the last 10 running’s it’s shown a 27% ROI to just back this blind.
There have been 3 winners in a tongue-tie but none of those wore headgear too.
Looking For More Racing Info? Check Out Our Racecards & Top Tips Sections
Make sure you’re following us on all our social media platforms to keep up to date with all the latest horse racing news and the best tips.