kevin-o-malley-the-tips-denWinners have been tough to come by in recent days for our man O'Malley, but in typical style he's sending out a small bunch of 20/1 outsiders on Saturday, with pretty fair reasoning for them outrunning their current prices...

Today’s Selection:

NEWBURY

1.40 - Proschema E/w 20/1 William Hill

2.10 - Iconic Choice E/w 20/1 Paddy Power

3.15 - Chiefofchiefs E/w 20/1 with Bet365

Comments:

The Tom Dascombe and Richard Kingscote partnership is one I am keen to stay on the right side of this season and indeed, the stable is going very well during the early exchanges of the 2019 flat season. Following Dascombe blind around Newbury would have yielded a +£28 level stakes profit to BFSP in the past three years and he sends a couple of interesting and attractively priced runners there today. PROSCHEMA is the first of them in the 1.40pm in the Group 3 John Porter Stakes, where last year’s winner and recently gelded Defoe is a warm jolly, closely attended by the perfectly solid operator that is Young Rascal. Those two are where they should be in the market though and Proschema does have fair claims here I feel, at much more attractive odds. His season started early last year and he thrived when fresh, winning his first two outings handsomely before losing out by 6 lengths to Young Rascal in the Chester Vase, where he hung his chance away in the closing stages.

He disappointed at Doncaster next time out before taking a 60 day break and from there, this 4yo steadily progressed through his next four starts of 2018, recording RPRs of 104, 105, 108 and 111. If he can build on that latest outing, he would only have a handful or so of pounds to find in order to become very competitive. The drop from 1m6f to 1m4f is definitely a positive, as is the little bit of dig in the ground that will remain in the ground come race time. He’s 20/1 at Hills and 16s generally, I’d probably be happy to have him on side at a baseline of 12s, so he rates as fair value in my book and hopefully he can repeat the 2018 feat by going well fresh once more, albeit in warmer company.

30 minutes later, Dascombe’s Iconic Choice is also over-priced to give her backers a solid run for their money in the 2.10pm Fred Darling Stakes over 7f. This Sixties Icon filly will certainly enjoy the soft ground at Newbury. She won four of his last five starts in 2018, signing off with a Listed success here at Newbury back in October. From August until then, Iconic Choice improved by 22lb on RPRs and there’s every chance, given her pedigree, she can progress again as a 3yo. Others have more obvious claims in terms of class and reputation, throw in some fancy jockey silks here and there, but ultimately this is simply a horse race from A to B and in terms of speed ratings achieved with overall form ratings cast aside, the selection has every chance of being very competitive. It is a shot in the dark, but there’s sufficient evidence to suggest she’s a likeable punt at 20/1.

The trouble with the 3.15pm at Newbury is that I fancy at least half of the field. However, I’m happy to side with Chiefofchiefs based on a few key little indicators I tend to like. The most pressing of those is his ability to stay 1m2f, which will really help the horse get home over this stiff mile. The ground will also be right in his favour. The draw could be a concern, but equally they were fairly spread in that regard in this last year, with 8 of the first 10 home hailing from double figure numbered stalls and the Charlie Fellowes runner has major claims at 20/1 for my money, with the brilliant James Doyle a favourable jockey booking to boot. Chiefofchiefs has solid turf form in the book, plenty of experience, he comes out well on all three ratings I refer to and the pair of outings he had at Lingfield in February will hopefully have blown away any Winter cobwebs.

All prices correct at the time of writing in the GG Tips Den, per the top/joint top prices available on the GG.CO.UK Racecards.

You can get in touch with me via email: Kevin.OMalley@GG.CO.UK OR by finding me on Twitter: @KOM_GGRacing


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