...Our tipster Kevin O'Malley starts the new week with three interesting selections running over the jumps at Kempton Park and Carlisle...
When you’re in the midst of a poor run of form betting on horses, there is truly nothing worse than a short price loser to add insult to injury. My natural and overriding instinct as a punter and racing analyst is to find fault, to take on and oppose the top of the market and if there’s one thing I’m keen not to do this jump season, it is throw up short priced horses for the sake of them having an obviously agreeable chance, especially when winners are proving hard to come by. It is a fine balance of not wanting to carelessly seek “value” bets at big prices and ignoring the obvious, both of which are easier to do during a losing run when confidence is down.
November is usually a good month, and it is still young.
Epatante and Gaelic Prince and one or two others are better fancied for the Kempton opener today, but essentially we know little or nothing about them. Jonjo O'Neill is enjoying a respectable start to the season and his Ey Up Rocky is too big here at 25/1. He won a bumper for Micky Hammond before going to the sales and I really liked the way this horse jumped and travelled around Market Rasen back in April. I suspect he’ll be ready to go first time out and the son of Dylan Thomas should be a bit stronger with a summer under his belt.
Canyon City has been in tremendous form of late and I’d make him a 7-8/1 chance on form to win the 2.55pm for Neil King, but the good-moving son of Authorized is available to back at as big as 14/1 this morning. There is some evidence that he can act with a little more cut in the ground and although he’s vulnerable to classier, winter horses now, I feel he remains nicely weighted on 10st 10lb off 129 here. The 5yo won easily on his two starts in October and double figure prices could prove a bit insulting.
The 1.30pm at Carlisle is perhaps the best race of the day, with Vinndication making his Novice Chase debut for the in-form Kim Bailey, facing off against the quality Euxton Lane, Dan Skelton’s Red Rising and our selection Uncle Alastair. Vinndication is the standout horse on hurdling form no doubt about that, he’s also proved himself to be very adept at winning horse races - which is exciting, and important. But this is a different game now and I do have a lot of time for Uncle Alastair, who win or lose today will develop into a lovely staying chaser in time. His hurdling form is solid, he’s built for chasing and comes here after a wind op. At 8/1, I make him a click or two too big at the prices for Nicky Richards and Brian Hughes.
All prices correct at the time of publication in the GG Tips Den, per the top/joint top prices available on the GG.CO.UK Racecards.
You can get in touch with me via email: Kevin.OMalley@GG.CO.UK OR by finding me on Twitter: @KOM_GGRacing
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