Day four of Glorious Goodwood in 2021 saw the emergence of Baaeed as a force to be reckoned with. This year’s Friday looks another enthralling one, and Dave Young has analysed all of the key trends.
Goodwood Handicap Stakes (Class 2) – 2m 4½f
- 9 of the last 10 winners carried less than 9 stone
- 8 of the last 10 winners had run that season (All 8 ran 2+ times)
- 8 of the last 10 winners had NOT won that season (2 did not run)
- 7 of the last 10 winners had 11 or more career runs
Preferably carrying less than 9 stone, has 2 or more runs this season but probably hasn’t won and look for those with 11 or more career runs.
Bonhams Thoroughbred Stakes (Group 3) – 1m
- ALL of the last 10 winners had run at 1 mile (6 had won)
- ALL of the last 10 winners had NOT run in the last three weeks
- 9 of the last 10 winners had 2 or more runs that season
- 8 of the last 10 winners had NOT won a Group race
- 8 of the last 10 winners had 2 or 3 career wins
- 7 of the last 10 winners came from the top 3 in the betting (4 favourites)
- 7 of the last 10 winners had won that season
Will have run at 1m before and ideally won, has NOT run in the last 21 days, has 2+ runs this season, 2 or 3 career wins but has NOT won a Group race.
Golden Mile Handicap (Class 2) – 1m
- ALL of the last 10 winners ran in a Handicap last time out
- 9 of the last 10 winners had 3 or more runs that season
- 9 of the last 10 winners were aged 4 or older
- 8 of the last 10 winners were drawn in stall 5 or lower
- 8 of the last 10 winners had an OR of 96+
- 8 of the last 10 winners had won at 1m (the others had just 1 and 2 runs at 1m)
- 7 of the last 10 winners had already run at Goodwood
Will have run in a Handicap last time out, has 3+ runs this season, aged 4 or older, has an OR of 96+, has won at 1m and a big bonus to be drawn in stall 5 or lower.
King George Qatar Stakes (Group 2) – 5f
- ALL of the last 10 winners had won that season
- ALL of the last 10 winners were single-figure priced
- 9 of the last 10 winners already had 2 or more wins at 5f
- 9 of the last 10 winners had already won a Group race
- 8 of the last 10 winners had already run at Goodwood
- 8 of the last 10 winners had been beaten that season
- 8 of the last 10 winners had an OR of 111+
- 7 of the last 10 winners did NOT run inside the last 40 days
Will have won this season and likely to have been beaten too, will be single-figure priced, has won a Group race and preferably hasn’t run for over 40 days.
Conditions 1m1f (Class 2) – 1m1f
NEW RACE
Hawes & Curtis Nursery Handicap (Class 2) – 6f
- 9 of the last 10 winners had just 1 win
- 8 of the last 10 winners had an OR between 83 and 85
- 7 of the last 10 winners were handicap debutants
- 7 of the last 10 winners had run at 6f
- 5 of the last 10 winners did NOT run at 6f last time out
Likely has just 1 win, has an OR of between 83 and 85, probably a handicap debutant who has run at 6f but not necessarily last time out.
Coral Handicap (Class 3) – 1m3f
- 9 of the last 10 winners carried 9 stone or more
- 8 of the last 10 winners were priced 6/1 or shorter
- 8 of the last 10 winners finished top 2 last time out (5 won)
- 8 of the last 10 winners had 3 or more runs this season
- ONLY 4 of the last 10 winners had run at about 1m 3f and 3 of those had won
Carries 9 stone or more, likely to be priced 6/1 or shorter, ideally finished top 2 last time out and has 3+ runs this season. If raced at about 1m3f then should have run well.
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