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Glorious Goodwood Day 4 Trends – King George Stakes Among Races Under Microscope

Day four of Glorious Goodwood in 2021 saw the emergence of Baaeed as a force to be reckoned with. This year’s Friday looks another enthralling one, and Dave Young has analysed all of the key trends.

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Goodwood Handicap Stakes (Class 2) – 2m 4½f

  • 9 of the last 10 winners carried less than 9 stone
  • 8 of the last 10 winners had run that season (All 8 ran 2+ times)
  • 8 of the last 10 winners had NOT won that season (2 did not run)
  • 7 of the last 10 winners had 11 or more career runs

Preferably carrying less than 9 stone, has 2 or more runs this season but probably hasn’t won and look for those with 11 or more career runs.

Bonhams Thoroughbred Stakes (Group 3) – 1m

  • ALL of the last 10 winners had run at 1 mile (6 had won)
  • ALL of the last 10 winners had NOT run in the last three weeks
  • 9 of the last 10 winners had 2 or more runs that season
  • 8 of the last 10 winners had NOT won a Group race
  • 8 of the last 10 winners had 2 or 3 career wins
  • 7 of the last 10 winners came from the top 3 in the betting (4 favourites)
  • 7 of the last 10 winners had won that season

Will have run at 1m before and ideally won, has NOT run in the last 21 days, has 2+ runs this season, 2 or 3 career wins but has NOT won a Group race.

Golden Mile Handicap (Class 2) – 1m

  • ALL of the last 10 winners ran in a Handicap last time out
  • 9 of the last 10 winners had 3 or more runs that season
  • 9 of the last 10 winners were aged 4 or older
  • 8 of the last 10 winners were drawn in stall 5 or lower
  • 8 of the last 10 winners had an OR of 96+
  • 8 of the last 10 winners had won at 1m (the others had just 1 and 2 runs at 1m)
  • 7 of the last 10 winners had already run at Goodwood

Will have run in a Handicap last time out, has 3+ runs this season, aged 4 or older, has an OR of 96+, has won at 1m and a big bonus to be drawn in stall 5 or lower.

King George Qatar Stakes (Group 2) – 5f

  • ALL of the last 10 winners had won that season
  • ALL of the last 10 winners were single-figure priced
  • 9 of the last 10 winners already had 2 or more wins at 5f
  • 9 of the last 10 winners had already won a Group race
  • 8 of the last 10 winners had already run at Goodwood
  • 8 of the last 10 winners had been beaten that season
  • 8 of the last 10 winners had an OR of 111+
  • 7 of the last 10 winners did NOT run inside the last 40 days

Will have won this season and likely to have been beaten too, will be single-figure priced, has won a Group race and preferably hasn’t run for over 40 days.

Conditions 1m1f (Class 2) – 1m1f

NEW RACE

Hawes & Curtis Nursery Handicap (Class 2) – 6f

  • 9 of the last 10 winners had just 1 win
  • 8 of the last 10 winners had an OR between 83 and 85
  • 7 of the last 10 winners were handicap debutants
  • 7 of the last 10 winners had run at 6f
  • 5 of the last 10 winners did NOT run at 6f last time out

Likely has just 1 win, has an OR of between 83 and 85, probably a handicap debutant who has run at 6f but not necessarily last time out.

Coral Handicap (Class 3) – 1m3f

  • 9 of the last 10 winners carried 9 stone or more
  • 8 of the last 10 winners were priced 6/1 or shorter
  • 8 of the last 10 winners finished top 2 last time out (5 won)
  • 8 of the last 10 winners had 3 or more runs this season
  • ONLY 4 of the last 10 winners had run at about 1m 3f and 3 of those had won

Carries 9 stone or more, likely to be priced 6/1 or shorter, ideally finished top 2 last time out and has 3+ runs this season. If raced at about 1m3f then should have run well.

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