The Grand Annual is the oldest race at The Festival, and it is also the oldest chase in the present National Hunt calendar. It’s named after Johnny Henderson, Father of Nicky Henderson who purchased the Cheltenham Racecourse in the 1960s alongside other Jockey Club members to protect it from property developers.
I’ve looked at all runnings this century and in the last decade to see if we can find out what it takes to land this race.
KEY TRENDS
- Likely to be aged 7 to 9-years-old
- More than likely to be priced 14/1 or bigger
- Has an OR between 136 and 147
- Carries between 10-10 and 11-8
- Respect runners coming here off lay-offs of 90 days or more
- Has between 1 and 3 wins over fences but not more than 5
- Should have already run at Cheltenham and a bonus point if already ran in a Grand Annual
- Either has not won this season or has just one win
- Probably did NOT win last time out
Focused Trends
AGE
- 5yo – 1/24 (4%) & 0/10 (0%)
- 6yo – 2/24 (8%) & 1/10 (10%)
- 7yo – 6/24 (25%) & 3/10 (30%)
- 8yo – 5/24 (21%) & 2/10 (20%)
- 9yo – 7/24 (29%) & 2/10 (20%)
- 10yo – 2/24 (8%) & 1/10 (10%)
- 11yo – 0/24 (0%) & 0/10 (0%)
- 12yo – 1/24 (4%) & 1/10 (10%)
Big old range for Grand Annual winners but the bulk of runners fall into the bracket of 7 to 10-year-olds. No age is profitable to back blind this century but it’s fair to assume the window of winners could be brought down to 7-9 with 70% or more winners between those ages.
PRICE
- Favourites – 4/24 (17%) & 1/10 (10%)
- Priced 14/1 or bigger – 11/24 (46%) & 6/10 (60%)
Favourites don’t have the best record in this race and there have been 17 runners just this century alone who were priced 6/1 or shorter with only 1 winning. You can increase that up to 8/1 for a further 24 runners but only one more winner. In fact, backing the Top 5 in the market in the last decade is a big loss maker.
Backing horses priced 22/1 or bigger this century would have found 4 winners and is showing a decent 60% ROI but it’s not been profitable this century so maybe the tide if due to turn back towards more fancied runners in the market. We did have 8 winners from the top 2 in the betting this century but only 2 of those came in the last 10 years.
RATINGS AND WEIGHT
- Winners with an OR between 136 and 147 – 13/24 (54%) & 8/10 (80%)
- Winners carrying between 10-10 and 11-8 – 15/24 (63%) & 9/10 (90%)
Big windows in both the OR and weight ranges selected above and with a 66/1 winner in the last decade, it’s going to read well for figures including Croco Bay.
Combining the rating band and weight band from above will show an 18% ROI this century but of course, Croco Bay does sway those figures significantly. However, if we bring the OR range up to 140 to exclude him and then also bring the weight carried up to 10-13 which would also exclude him, it shows an ROI of 11%. I think this shows we’re close to the right bands.
LAST TIME OUT
- Won last time out – 5/24 (21%) & 3/10 (10%)
- Finished Top 3 time out – 13/24 (54%) & 4/10 (40%)
- Last ran 91 or more days ago – 5/24 (21%) & 4/10 (40%)
Most runners in this race fall under last time winners so while they have won this race, they are the biggest loss maker of any last time out position. Horses who finished 2nd last time out show a profit across both time frames.
There have been 5 winners this century who last ran more than 91 days ago and 4 of those came in the last decade.
CAREER FORM
- Winners who had run at Cheltenham – 21/24 (88%) & 8/10 (80%)
- Winners who had no more than ONE win this season – 22/24 (92%) & 9/10 (90%)
- Winners who had 1-3 WINS over fences – 20/24 (84%) & 9/10 (90%)
- Winners who had 3-5 WINS at 15-17 furlongs – 19/24 (79%) & 7/10 (70%)
- Winners who were a Novice Chaser – 9/24 (38%) & 2/10 (20%)
- Winners who had run in the race before – 8/24 (33%) & 4/10 (40%)
ALL winners this century had no more than 5 wins over fences, but most had between 1 and 3.
Most winners had no more than 1 win this season with the majority having no wins at all. Just over two-thirds of winners had 3-5 wins at between 15 and 17 furlongs and most winners had already run at Cheltenham. More than a third of winners had already contested the Grand Annual in a previous season and while there have been quite a few Novices win this, there have only been 2 in the last decade, but both came in the last 5 years.
HEADGEAR
4 winners this century sported headgear and it produces a 29% ROI. Only 1 of those was in headgear for the first time, and those who had tried it before improve the ROI up to 33%.
Most winners do NOT wear any headgear but it’s a loss maker to back all of these blind.
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