The 2025 Grand National weights have been revealed, with defending champion I Am Maximus conceding weight all-round. It is not he who catches the eye according to Matty Sutcliffe though, as he has selected two ante-post bets, both of whom will be popular with once-a-year punters…
Gentlemansgame 50/1 1pt EW 5 places + Intense Raffles 14/1 1pt WIN
The Grand National is rapidly becoming something of a race for staying chasers who aren’t quite quick enough to win a Gold Cup. The ‘easier’ design of the race is a large part of the typical field we see now, as it’s less of an attritional contest and the profile of a Grand National winner has changed dramatically as such. Ninety runners have been entered this year, and a mark of 150 would sneak you in off bottom weight should all the first thirty four be declared. That gives you an idea as to just how competitive from a class angle the race is, not to mention the seventeen grade one accolades accumulated between the top twenty three in the weights.
Grade One form has come to the fore in the last three renewals, with I Am Maximus’ form figures in Grade One’s reading 444143 going into the Grand National, not to mention the former Gold Cup winner Minella Indo finishing eight lengths behind in third. In 2023, Corach Rambler defied favouritism after his Ultima success, and while he was yet to run in a Grade One, he was far from disgraced in both the Betfair Chase and the Gold Cup when attempting to reclaim his crown next season, which gives you an idea as to the profile you need required to win the race, and that year did see the Gold Cup fourth Noble Yeats finish fourth in the contest, with Gailard Du Mesnil in third that day whose form figures in Grade One races read 121321 going in to the Grand National.
Mouse Morris won the Aintree spectacle in 2016 with Rule The World, which came somewhat as a surprise given he was remarkably still a novice, but he has a much more assured model to go to war with this time in GENTLEMANSGAME, who is the perfect mould of a modern day Grand National winner.
Firstly, he’s only ever ran two ‘bad’ races over fences. The first came in the Gold Cup in 2024 around the time when Mouse Morris’ weren’t particularly firing, and the second came last time out when beaten seventeen lengths back at Cheltenham over a furlong shorter in the Cotswold Chase behind L’Homme Presse and Stage Star, giving the pair 6lbs and 2lbs respectively. While he was still able to post a respectable RPR of 158, there’s a suspicion that perhaps Prestbury Park doesn’t show him in his best light. Mouse Morris earmarked either the Gold Cup or the National as his big season target, but after the Cotswold Chase, I’d be very much surprised if they entertain the former again.
Prior to his run last time out, I thought he ran huge race to finish third in the G1 Saville Chase behind Galopin Des Champs and Fact To File. He potentially paid the price for racing close up behind Galopin Des Champs throughout, but I was most impressed with how despite being headed by Heart Wood for third, he was able to regain third spot and clock a quicker final furlong than Fact To File in the process. There was seemingly no fluke about that career best performance, particularly given the first two home filled that spot once more in the Irish Gold Cup next time out. The fifth, Inothewayurthinkin, also better his effort when fourth in that Irish Gold Cup, and the sixth, Grangeclare West, put up a career best when beaten four lengths into second in that contest next time out. That is some of the strongest collateral form you’ll see all season let alone in the Grand National, and given he runs off the same mark as the current favourite, Inothewayurthinkin, who’d have three lengths to find with him on the Saville form, I think he’s criminally overpriced.
That Savills effort wasn’t a fluke by any means, as he was a five-length fourth in the Punchestown Gold Cup last season behind Fastorslow and only four lengths behind Galopin Des Champs, again clocking the second quickest final furlong of the contest suggesting there was enough stamina left to play with in the finish, and a better jump two out might’ve seen him finish closer as he was shuffled back without much room on the rail. Other bits of form include him beating Bravemansgame in the Charlie Hall at Wetherby last season, who finished second in two more Grade One’s thereafter, he was a good second over a likely inadequate 2m4f to Easy Game in that ones Gold Cup in the Gowran Park Champion Chase, finishing ahead of Envoi Allen who’s for figures in Grade Ones subsequently read 2241UR, he’d beaten I Am Maximus on chase debut two seasons ago, and he was a 12-length second to Galopin Des Champs in Grade One company over hurdles.
All the form is undoubtedly there, he ties in with one of the greatest Gold Cup winners in the modern era and that’s exactly the profile you need nowadays. The big question mark is whether he’ll stay, and that’s something we’ll have to take on trust. That said, the aforementioned finishing efforts in the final furlong would suggest he’s by no means weakening at the line over three miles which bodes well, and his pedigree offers further optimism given he’s by Gentlewave, whose progeny generally tend to stay well such as Easysland, who won multiple cross country’s over 3m6f at Cheltenham and a 3m7f contest at Pau, Quick Wave who won the London National over 3m5f and the Grand National Trial at Haydock over 3m4f, and several others whose best form has come around three miles.
At a general 50/1, he’d rate my most confident bet at this stage.
Slightly closer to the market leaders is INTENSE RAFFLES, who remarkably won the Irish Grand National last season on just his third start for Thomas Gibney having bolted up forty three lengths in a novice chase prior. Having watched the race back earlier, it was even more impressive than the first time. He was barely off the bridle until two out when pulling clear of Frontal Assault and gamely fending off the challenging Any Second Now despite an awkward landing jumping the last. He was incredibly strong at the line despite his prominent pitch the whole way, and I liked how he started to stretch clear again once Any Second Now came to his hind quarters, who bodes stamina in abundance having finished third and second in consecutive Aintree Grand Nationals.
The form of that Irish National has worked out well with the third, Minella Cocooner, taking the G3 Bet365 Gold Cup next time out off a mark of 151, the fifth, Height Of Fashion, taking the Listed Porterstown Chase earlier this season, and the seventh, Nick Rockett, who was third to Minella Cocooner subsequently at Sandown, also won the Thyestes off 152 last month now rated 161.
I don’t think we’ve quite scratched the surface with Intense Raffles just yet, who remains entirely unexposed in handicap chases and can follow last years’ winner of the Irish Grand National in landing the Aintree equivalent. His seasonal target is clearly Aintree, given they’re ticking him along over hurdles including over a wildly inadequate 2m4f last time out. He carries a lovely racing weight in 10-10, and I’d imagine he’ll shorten on the run up to Aintree, particularly if running well in the Bobbyjo Chase which could be his next pit stop on the road to the National.
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