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Grand National Festival Trends – Day One

The Grand National Festival gets underway next Thursday, with the big race itself taking place on Saturday. Our trends man Dave Young, who has already analysed this year’s Grand National trends, now takes aim at day one, with analysis of every race on the card below.

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Manifesto Novices Chase

  • ALL of the last 10 winners failed to win last time out
  • ALL of the last 10 winners had at least 4 runs that season
  • 9 of the last 10 winners had won at least twice that season (the other had won once)
  • 9 of the last 10 winners had recorded an RPR of 155+ over fences
  • 8 of the last 10 winners returned 5/1 or shorter (all winners single figures)
  • 7 of the last 10 winners did NOT record their highest season RPR last time out
  • 7 of the last 10 winners had raced about 2m 4f (all had won a race at about the trip too)
  • 7 of the last 10 winners had run at Aintree (All having just 1 previous visit and only 1 had won)
  • 7 of the last 10 winners were 6yo’s (the last two weren’t)
  • 7 of the last 10 winners had recorded an RPR of 158+ over fences
  • 6 of the last 10 winners ran at Cheltenham (all winners inside last 70 days)

Shortlist – FOUND A FIFTY & GINNY’S DESTINY


Anniversary 4-Y-O Juvenile Hurdle

  • 8 of the last 10 winners had won at least twice that season
  • 8 of the last 10 winners had run at least 3 times that season
  • 7 of the last 10 winners raced at Cheltenham last time out (only 2 had won at The Festival)
  • 7 of the last 10 winners recorded their highest RPR last time out
  • 6 of the last 10 winners were priced sub 3/1
  • 6 of the last 10 winners were beaten last time out
  • Only 5 of the last 10 winners had recorded an RPR of 140+

Shortlist – KARGESE


Aintree Bowl Chase

  • ALL of the last 10 winners failed to win last time out
  • 9 of the last 10 winners had run at least 3 times that season
  • 9 of the last 10 winners had run at about 3 miles before (SHISHKIN last year hadn’t)
  • 8 of the last 10 winners had already won at about 3 miles (7 of those more than once)
  • 8 of the last 10 winners returned 7/2 or shorter in the market
  • 8 of the last 10 winners ran at Cheltenham last time out
  • 8 of the last 10 winners had recorded an RPR of 170+ that season
  • 7 of the last 10 winners had recorded their career best RPR that season (SHISHKIN was second highest the same season, only CLAN DES OBEAUX breaks the trend but also no season wins)
  • 7 of the last 10 winners had won already that season (none last time out)
  • 7 of the last 10 winners were aged 8 or 9
  • 7 of the last 10 winners had run at Aintree before (6 of those had won – CLAN DES OBEAUX had placed twice there)

Shortlist – GERRI COLOMBE


Aintree Hurdle

  • ALL of the last 10 winners ran at Cheltenham last time out
  • 9 of the last 10 winners were 8yo’s or younger (one exception SUPASUNDAE)
  • 9 of the last 10 winners had 3 or more runs that season already
  • 7 of the last 10 winners had won that season
  • 7 of the last 10 winners had posted an RPR of 164+ that season (7 points added for Mares)
  • 7 of the last 10 winners did NOT win last time out (the three that did had ALL won the Champion Hurdle)
  • 6 of the last 10 winners were NOT favourite but all priced single figures
  • 6 of the last 10 had run at about 2m4f before (all but ZARKANDER had won at the trip but he was second in this race on his only attempt at the trip)
  • 6 of the last 10 ran to their highest career RPR that same season (ANNIE POWER wasn’t but had won the Champion Hurdle – mind boggling)
  • 5 of the last 10 winners had run at Aintree before and all 5 had finished 1st or 2nd

Shortlist – IRISH POINT


Hunters Chase

  • ALL of the last 10 winners had run inside 40 days or less (9 of those in 32 or less)
  • ALL of the last 10 winners had raced at about 2m 5f (7 of those 10 has won at about the trip)
  • 9 of the last 10 winners were either having their 1st run in this race or had placed top 2 in it
  • 8 of the last 10 winners finished top 3 last time out (7 of those were top 2 & 5 won)
  • 8 of the last 10 winners had 3 or more runs that season (7 of those 8 had won that season too)
  • 8 of the last 10 winners had won that season
  • 7 of the last 10 winners were 10yo’s or older (NOT the last three)
  • 6 of the last 10 winners were priced 11/2 or shorter
  • 6 of the last 10 winners recorded their highest RPR of that season last time out (3 were career highs)
  • 6 of the last 9 winners posted an RPR of 133+ that season (LATENIGHTPASS had no RPRs from his points but probably would have scored above this too)
  • Only 5 of the last 10 winners raced in the Cheltenham Foxhunters (only ON THE FRINGE was successful there)

Shortlist – CAPTAIN TOMMY & ESPOIR DE GUYE


Red Rum Handicap Chase

  • 9 of the last 10 winners did NOT win last time out
  • 8 of the last 10 winners finished top 3 first time out that season (THE LAST DAY would have won if not for falling to make it 9)
  • 8 of the last 10 winners were aged 7-9yo’s
  • 8 of the last 10 winners had 4 or more runs that season (7 of those 8 had won a race too)
  • 8 of the last 10 winners did NOT record their highest season RPR last time out (THE LAST DAY did but only ran once prior, EDITEUR DE GITE was the only last time out winner too)
  • 8 of the last 10 winners did NOT run at Cheltenham
  • 7 of the last 10 winners ran 42 or fewer days ago (9 of the last 10 ran this calendar year)
  • 7 of the last 10 winners carried 10 stone 10 pounds or less
  • 7 of the last 10 winners were priced 9/1+
  • 7 of the last 10 winners had won a race that season (only 1 of the last 4 winners though)
  • 5 of the last 10 winners won first time out that season (THE LAST DAY would have won if not for falling to make it 6)

Shortlist – GENERAL MEDRANO


Nickel Coin Mares’ Bumper

  • ALL of the last 10 winners had won that season
  • ALL of the last 10 winners had raced in March and/or February (6 of the 10 in March)
  • 9 of the last 10 winners did NOT run at Cheltenham
  • 8 of the last 10 winners had posted an RPR of 109+ (5 of the 8 were 115+)
  • 8 of the last 10 winners were 5yo’s
  • 8 of the last 10 winners posted their best RPR last time out (the other two were on their penultimate starts)
  • 8 of the last 10 winners had 3 or fewer runs that season
  • 5 of the last 10 winners won last time out
  • The average SP of the last 10 winners is 10/1 with just two winning favourites

Shortlist – MOZZIES SISTER

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