The feature race on Sunday for The November Meeting in Cheltenham is the Greatwood Handicap Hurdle and it’s had some big names winners over the years. I’ve looked at all running’s this century to try and figure out what it takes to land this race.
KEY TRENDS
- Will be aged 7-years-old or younger and preference for 5yo’s
- Most winners are priced between 9/2 and 12/1 and half of those were priced 17/2 to 12/1 which has been profitable to back blind
- Winner have won from a vast range of ratings but 140-145 has provided half of the last 10 winners
- Likely to have 8 or fewer runs and 2 or more wins over hurdles
Focused Trends
AGE
- 4yo – 4/24 (17%) & 1/10 (10%)
- 5yo – 13/24 (54%) & 6/10 (60%)
- 6yo – 3/24 (13%) & 1/10 (10%)
- 7yo – 3/24 (13%) & 2/10 (20%)
- 8yo – 1/24 (4%) & 0/10 (0%)
The bulk of winners are aged 5 years old and while they had the most runners, they have the best performing strike rate with11% and a £1 level stake this century is showing a £19.21 profit. It’s also worth noting that all bar one winner was aged younger than 8 in the race’s entire history since 1987.
PRICE
- Favourites – 3/24 (13%) & 0/10 (0%)
There’s been no winning favourite since Detroit City in 2006, so if you’re a half glass full kind of person, you may think we’re due one. Second favourites actually have more wins this century and would show a small profit if backing blind but betting the 5th and 6th in the market would have given 9 winners this century and a level stake profit of £43.50 from a £50 layout.
In terms of price bands, 17/2-12/1 has given 9 winners itself and shows a level stake profit of £30.50. Just 3 winners this century were priced 14/1 or bigger from 191 runners, so that a lossmaker of £129.
18 winners have come from the price bracket of 9/2 to 12/1, but only the beforementioned 17/2-12/1 band has been profitable to back blind.
WEIGHT
The winning-most weight this century is 11-12 with 4 winners from 24 and holds this highest number of placed horses with 9. None of those winners came in the last decade though.
Winners are scattered from 9-7 right up to 12-0 in the last century and decade, but exact weights of 11-0, 11-9 and 12-0 have been profitable both this century and in the last 10 years so don’t be put off by the higher weighted runners.
OFFICIAL RATING
- Winners with an OR of 140 to 145 – 8/24 (33%) & 5/10 (50%)
In recent years, runners with an OR between 140 and 145 have claimed half of the races while this century they account for a third on the wins. If you backed every horse within this band this century you would have made a £35.50 profit from 66 runners. 126, 128 and 149 rated runners have all turned a near £10+ profit each this century.
LAST TIME OUT
- Ran 30 days ago or less – 11/24 (46%) & 5/10 (50%)
- Ran 60 days ago or less – 14/24 (58%) & 6/10 (60%)
- Ran 121 days ago or more – 10/24 (42%) & 4/10 (40%)
- Finished Top 2 last time out – 13/24 (54%) & 5/10 (50%)
Most winners finished top 2 last time out but they also account for most runners so it’s not profitable to just back those qualifiers. There is also no real bias in looking at when a horse ran last time out either. Those who need a prep seem to take one, those who don’t, don’t. Trust the trainer.
COURSE FORM
- Winners who had RUN at Cheltenham – 15/24 (63%) & 7/10 (70%)
- Winners who had WON at Cheltenham – 9/15 (60%) & 4/7 (57%)
Being a race for potentially less exposed horses does mean opportunities to have run at this track may be limited. That said, around two thirds of winners had been round here before and of those with a run, more than half had already won here too.
CAREER HURDLE FORM
- Had less than 9 RUNS over hurdles – 18/24 (75%) & 8/10 (80%)
- Had more than 1 WIN over hurdles – 18/24 (75%) & 7/10 (70%)
Fairly unexposed types seem to go well here, but it’s also a race that attracts plenty of those too. More than three-quarters of winners having 8 or fewer runs over hurdles although it’s around the same number of winners who have more than one win to their name. The two winners who raced more than 20 times both carried 11-12 have already tasted Graded success in their career whether that be over hurdles or fences.
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