22 fences are due to be jumped in this super-staying handicap which is known as the Haydock Grand National Trial.
I’ve looked at all runnings this century and the last decade to see what’s changing, what’s stayed the same, and more importantly; what it takes to find the winner.
KEY TRENDS
- Look to those with an OR of 139-149
- Look to horses carrying 11 stone 4 pounds or higher
- Not sporting any headgear and preferably has no tongue-tie either
- Respect last time out winners
- Must have already won at 3 miles or further
- Probably has 2-4 wins over fences
Focused Trends
AGE
- 7yo – 3/24 (12%) & 1/10 (10%)
- 8yo – 6/24 (25%) & 4/10 (40%)
- 9yo – 7/24 (29%) & 1/10 (10%)
- 10yo – 4/24 (17%) & 2/10 (20%)
- 11yo – 4/24 (17%) & 2/10 (20%)
Runners aged between 7 and 10 have around a 7-10% strike rate so there’s no real bias this century. In the last decade 8-year-olds and 11-year-olds hold a 14% and 13% strike rate respectively and both have been profitable to back blind. 9-year-olds have the lowest place strike rate in the 7-10yo age bracket, and this had been consistent across this century and the last decade.
PRICE
- Favourites – 5/24 (21%) & 2/10 (20%)
- Priced 13/2 to 8/1 – 7/24 (29%) & 6/10 (60%)
Favourites have just under a 20% strike rate (including joints etc) but they’d only have lost you £1 if backing blind this century and you’d have broken even in the last decade. Second favourites are 0 from 14 in the last decade but the 3rd and 4th in the market have shown a small profit in the last 10 years.
Runners priced between 13/2 and 8/1 have flourished in the last decade with a 30% strike rate and are showing a profit of £32.50 from 20 qualifiers. That’s a decent 150% ROI.
RATINGS AND WEIGHT
- Winners with an OR between 139 and 149 – 13/24 (54%) & 8/10 (80%)
- Winners carrying 11-4 or more – 9/24 (38%) & 6/10 (60%)
It’s been profitable to back all runners rated 139 to 149 blind both this century and in the last decade as has backing all runners carrying 11-4 or more.
If combining both these metrics you’d have found 8 winners from 53 qualifiers this century and returned a 57% ROI to SP alone. Moving into the last decade it’s found 6 winners from 26 qualifiers and the ROI increases to a very generous 140%, again to SP alone.
LAST TIME OUT
- Won last time out – 11/24 (46%) & 4/10 (40%)
- Last ran 31-60 days ago – 15/24 (63%) & 6/10 (60%)
Last time out winners have been profitable to back blind both this century and in the last decade and they hold the highest place strike rate for any measure holding 10 or more qualifiers.
It’s also profitable to back all runners who last ran between 31 and 60 days ago blind, but the same goes for horses who last ran between 8-15 days ago which comes from a much smaller sample size.
COURSE FORM
- Winners who had RUN at Haydock – 15/24 (63%) & 6/10 (60%)
- Winners who had WON at Haydock – 9/15 (60%) & 4/6 (66%)
Around two-thirds of winners had run at Haydock and then two-thirds of those had won here too. It’s clearly not essential to have run here, but it’s desirable. The same goes for winning here.
CAREER FORM
- Had won at 3 miles or further – 22/24 (92%) & 10/10 (100%)
- Winners who had 10 or more RUNS over fences – 14/24 (59%) & 7/10 (70%)
- Winners who had 2-4 WINS over fences – 20/24 (83%) & 8/10 (80%)
Every single winner had run over at least 3 miles which isn’t surprising, nor is it that most winners had already won over 3 miles or further. More winners came here with 10 or more runs over fences and that’s increased in the last decade. What has stayed consistent though, is winners having won between 2 and 4 times over fences.
HEADGEAR
- Winners who did NOT wear headgear or tongue-tie – 19/24 (79%) & 5/10 (50%)
Most winners do NOT sport headgear, and most do NOT wear a tongue-tie either. Horses without either have taken 19 of the 24 renewals this century and show a 24% ROI. In the last decade, it’s a 50/50 split between winners who ticked this box or not, but if they did NOT wear a tongue-tie or sport headgear it’s shown a 43% ROI. You’d find 2 more winners if you didn’t care about a tongue-tie being on or not, but it does reduce the ROI to 35%.
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