Qualification for entry in the Festival Hunter Chase is based on a horse’s previous performances in certain types of races within a specific period. To be eligible a horse must have finished first or second twice in hunter chases, or have won two open point-to-point races, or have won one open point-to-point race and finished first or second in a hunter chase.
I’ve looked at all runnings this century and in the last decade to see if we can work out what it typically takes to land this race.
KEY TRENDS
- Likely to be aged 10 or 11-years-old
- Ignore runners priced bigger than 8/1 and shorter than 14/1 (no winners this century)
- Look for runners with an OR of 135 to 141
- Probably last ran 20 to 41 days ago
- Probably ran in a rules Hunter Chase last time out
- Has 3 or more chase wins under rules
- Probably has run at Cheltenham
- Probably has already run at 26-27 furlongs
- Only accept headgear runners in Cheekpieces (they are profitable to back blind)
Focused Trends
AGE
- 6yo – 1/24 (4%) & 0/10 (0%)
- 7yo – 2/24 (8%) & 0/10 (0%)
- 8yo – 3/24 (13%) & 1/10 (10%)
- 9yo – 5/24 (21%) & 0/10 (10%)
- 10yo – 8/24 (33%) & 6/10 (60%)
- 11yo – 4/24 (17%) & 3/10 (30%)
- 12yo – 0/24 (0%) & 0/10 (0%)
- 13yo – 1/24 (4%) & 0/10 (0%)
10-year-olds are the winning-most age over both period and with 2 recent 66/1 winners they show a healthy profit too. They and 11-year-olds account for the majority of runners but most fit the range of being an 8 to 12-year-old
PRICE
- Favourites – 7/24 (29%) & 3/10 (30%)
- Priced 14/1 or bigger – 12/24 (50%) & 5/10 (50%)
Favourites make a small profit blind this century and a small lost in the last decade. ALL of the winners this century were priced 13/8 to 8/1 or 14/1 or bigger so you could probably ignore runners with an SP bigger than 8/1 but shorter than 14/1.
RATINGS (since 2010)|
- Winners with an OR between 135 and 141 – 7/15 (47%) & 6/10 (60%)
Runners with an OR between 134 and 141 in the last 15 years produced 8 winners for a 25% ROI to SP, in the last decade the same range has found 6 winners with an ROI of 20%.
LAST RAN
- Last ran 20-41 days ago – 18/24 (75%) & 7/10 (70%)
- In a Hunter Chase (rules) – 19/24 (79%) & 8/10 (80%)
Most winners last ran between 20 and 41 days ago and most winners last ran in a Hunter Chase under rules.
CAREER FORM
- Winners who had run at Cheltenham – 16/24 (67%) & 8/10 (80%)
- Winners who had 3 or more WINS over fences under rules – 17/24 (71%) & 8/10 (80%)
- Winners who had already run at 26-27F – 15/24 (63%) & 8/10 (80%)
Most winners had already run at Cheltenham and most winners had 3 or more wins over fences under rules.
Most winners had run at 26-27 furlongs before now and that’s been even more prominent in recent renewals.
HEADGEAR
- Wearing Cheekpieces – 4/24 (17%) & 2/10 (20%)
- Wearing other headgear – 0/24 (0%) & 0/10 (0%)
While most winners were not wearing any headgear, and the only headgear winner wore cheekpieces, you’d lose money following that blind. However, if you did just back Cheekpiece wearers it’s shown a 68% ROI to SP this century. 3 of the 4 winners were priced 20/1, 33/1 and 66/1, the other was 13/8 favourite Billaway.
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