In the early years of this race it was considered to be the most important hurdle race of the season and it held that status until the Champion Hurdle was introduced in 1927.
It’s run the weekend before Cheltenham and there is a bonus awarded to any horse who wins this and at The Festival. Olympian did the double with the Coral Cup, Blowing Wind did it with the County Hurdle and Gaspara did it with the Fred Winter.
I’ve looked at all runnings this century and in comparison to the last decade to see what the profile of a winner looks like and how that’s changed in recent years.
KEY TRENDS
- Likely to be aged 5, 6 or 8-years-old
- Backing the 4th in the betting blind has been profitable (90% ROI this century)
- Rated 128-136 and preferably carrying 10-10 to 11-4
- Did NOT win last time out
- Last ran 16-30 days ago and NOT in the last 15 days
- Has run 2-4 times this season and has won a race this season
- Not wearing headgear (last two winners were)
Focused Trends
AGE
- 4yo – 1/24 (4%) & 0/10 (0%)
- 5yo – 10/24 (42%) & 5/10 (50%)
- 6yo – 6/24 (25%) & 3/10 (30%)
- 7yo – 2/24 (8%) & 0/10 (0%)
- 8yo – 3/24 (13%) & 2/10 (20%)
- 9yo – 1/24 (4%) & 0/10 (0%)
5-year-olds have taken most renewals, and they operate at the highest strike in the last decade. 8-year-olds have the next best strike rate and show a small profit as do 6-year-olds, but they do account for most runners and are a big lossmaker this century. 7-year-olds looks ones to avoid with no win since 2011 and they hold the biggest losses blind across both periods
PRICE
- Favourites – 7/24 (29%) & 1/10 (10%)
- Top 4 in the betting – 14/24 (58%) & 6/10 (60%)
Favourites make money this century but are running at a loss in the last decade. Most winners come from the Top 4 in the betting and if you were to back the 4th in blind you’d show a profit of £10 in the last decade (125% ROI) and £18 this century (90% ROI).
RATINGS AND WEIGHT
- Winners with an OR between 128 and 136 – 13/24 (54%) & 9/10 (90%)
- Winners carrying 10-10 to 11-4 – 9/24 (38%) & 6/10 (60%)
Backing runners rated between 128 and 136 blind in the last decade shows a £33 profit but it’s showing a near £19 loss this century. That does look a trend to be more relevant in recent years with 9 of the last 10 winners found in that range.
Weight carried is a tricky one, but in recent years most winners have shouldered between 10-10 and 11-4.
LAST RUN
- Won last time out – 7/24 (29%) & 1/10 (10%)
- Last ran 16-30 days ago – 13/24 (54%) & 8/10 (80%)
Last time out winners are big loss makers to follow blind and we’ve only had one winner from the last 10 to win last time out and then this, but 42 have tried. Horses who finished 3rd or 4th last time out have respectable strike rates across both periods and the latter wouldn’t make you money but it wouldn’t lose you any either.
Most winners last ran between 16 and 30 days ago but most runners come from that window too. It has been a profit maker in the last decade though and there have been 78 horses this century who ran inside 16 days with just 1 winner from those.
SEASON FORM
- Winners who had 2-4 runs that season – 17/24 (71%) & 6/10 (60%)
- Winners who had won that season – 16/24 (67%) & 7/10 (70%)
Most winners of this race had run 2-4 times already this season and about the same amount had won a race this season too.
HEADGEAR
- Winner who were NOT wearing any headgear – 21/24 (88%) & 8/10 (80%)
Most winners of this race were not wearing any headgear however the last two winners were, but neither were trying them for the first time.
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