Dave Young has delved through all the recent statistics for the Irish Derby, which is run at the Curragh this Sunday, and our trends man has picked out all the vital facts and figures for the Group 1 Classic.
KEY TRENDS
- Draw isn’t completely essential, but you’d prefer to be drawn in the bottom 3 stalls
- Favourites perform close to expectation, but the winner will likely be 6/1 or shorter
- Will hold an Official Rating of 111 or higher
- Look to runners who last ran in the English Derby
- Probably has already won at 1m2f or further in their career
- Respect horses who have had 3 runs this season
Focused Trends
STALLS
- Drawn in the lowest three stalls – 10/25 (40%) & 7/10 (70%)
- Drawn in the highest three stalls – 6/25 (24%) & 0/10 (0%)
Low draws are beneficial in the Irish Derby but while it’s been profitable to back the inside trio blind in the last decade, it hasn’t been in the last century. Interestingly, it’s stall 2 across both periods that carries the figures but that’s thanks to 33/1 winner Sovereign in 2019.
PRICE
- Favourites – 13/25 (52%) & 5/10 (50%)
- SP of 6/1 or shorter – 21/25 (84%) & 8/10 (80%)
Favourites show a small 50p profit this century and close to 70p loss in the last decade so they’re neither here nor there.
Backing all runners priced 6/1 or shorter would show a profit across both periods, around a 10% ROI in the last decade and near 20% ROI this century.
OFFICIAL RATING
- Winners with highest OR in the field – 14/25 (56%) & 4/10 (40%)
- Winners with an OR of 111 or higher – 22/25 (88%) & 8/10 (80%)
Backing the highest rated runner in the Irish Derby this century has show a 58% ROI and that’s not including Hurricane Run from 2005 who did not hold an Official Rating on these shores but would have come out on top.
In the last decade though, it’s showing a 21% negative ROI with only two winning Top-rate runners in the last eight renewals despite seven of those being sent off as favourite.
Most winners held an OR of 111 or higher which is also profitable to back blind this century but shows a small loss in the last decade.
LAST TIME OUT
- Won last time out – 11/25 (44%) & 4/10 (40%)
- Ran in the last 16-30 days – 22/25 (88%) & 9/10 (90%)
- Ran at Epsom – 19/25 (76%) & 8/10 (80%)
Last time out winners will not make you money to follow blind but if you followed every horse who last ran in Epsom you would be showing a profit in each period but it’s thanks to 33/1 winner Sovereign.
PATHS FROM (Winners to runners this century, P&L and year of last winner)
- Epsom Derby – 19/86 (+£16.80 | 2024)
- Irish 2000 Guineas – 1/9 (+£2 | 2004)
- Orby Stakes – 1/10 (-£3 | 2013)
- Epsom Derby – 1/8 -£5 | 2020)
- Epsom Derby – 1/3 (+£1.50 | 2010)
As touched on in the Last Time Out section, Epsom Derby runners are profitable to follow blind however it really is pushed to the positive due to 33/1 winner Sovereign. Seven of those winners won both races and 15 had placed Top 3.
FORM
- Has won at 1m2f or further – 21/25 (84%) & 8/10 (80%)
- Had 3 runs this season – 14/25 (56%) & 6/10 (60%)
Most winners of the Derby had won at 1m2f or further but it’s not a profitable system to follow blind. More winners than not had run 3 times that season which has been profitable to back blind.
HONOURS ROLL (This Century):
- 2024 – Los Angeles (IRE)
- 2023 – Auguste Rodin (IRE)
- 2022 – Westover
- 2021 – Hurricane Lane (IRE)
- 2020 – Santiago (IRE)
- 2019 – Sovereign (IRE)
- 2018 – Latrobe (IRE)
- 2017 – Capri (IRE)
- 2016 – Harzand (IRE)
- 2015 – Jack Hobbs
- 2014 – Australia
- 2013 – Trading Leather (IRE)
- 2012 – Camelot
- 2011 – Treasure Beach
- 2010 – Cape Blanco (IRE)
- 2009 – Fame And Glory
- 2008 – Frozen Fire (GER)
- 2007 – Soldier Of Fortune (IRE)
- 2006 – Dylan Thomas (IRE)
- 2005 – Hurricane Run (IRE)
- 2004 – Grey Swallow (IRE)
- 2003 – Alamshar (IRE)
- 2002 – High Chaparral (IRE)
- 2001 – Galileo (IRE)
- 2000 – Sinndar (IRE)