The Irish Gold Cup is a proper Grade 1 race with some house-hold names amongst the previous winners and it’s also been a lead into Cheltenham Gold Cup winners thanks to Sizing John and Galopin Des Champs in recent years.
I’ve looked at all renewals this century with a comparison against the last 10 runnings to see what it takes to land this if you’re tempted to take on Galopin Des Champs in his three-peat attempt.
KEY TRENDS
- Will be aged 7-9 or if a 10yo+ they will have won this race before
- Backing 2nd favourites blind this century and the last decade has been profitable
- Ideally has an OR of 168+ but should have an OR of at least 160+
- Should have last run between 24 and 47 days ago
- Preferably has 3 or more runs at Leopardstown
- Should have a 40% or higher strike rate at about 23-25 furlongs
- Preference goes to multiple Grade 1 winners
Focused Trends
AGE
- 7yo – 6/25 (24%) & 3/10 (30%)
- 8yo – 6/25 (24%) & 2/10 (20%)
- 9yo – 9/25 (36%) & 4/10 (40%)
- 10yo – 2/25 (8%) & 1/10 (10%)
- 11yo – 1/25 (4%) & 0/10 (10%)
- 12yo – 1/25 (4%) & 0/10 (10%)
7-year-olds consistently have the highest win and place rate with 9-year-olds fairing next best. Both have been profitable to back blind both this century and the in the last decade but for 9-year-olds it’s thanks to 33/1 winner Edwulf.
8-year-olds account for the most runners across both time frames yet run at a loss if just betting those blind.
Each of the winners who were aged 10 or older were previous race winners, so ignore elders who haven’t landed this in their heyday.
PRICE
- Favourites – 10/25 (40%) & 2/10 (20%)
- 2nd favourites – 8/25 (32%) & 4/10 (40%)
Backing favourites blind both this century and in the last decade is a loss maker however betting the 2nd favourite for both periods has been profitable.
OFFICIAL RATING
- Winner has an OR of 160 or higher – 16/25 (64%) & 7/10 (70%)
- Winner has an OR of 168 or higher – 8/25 (32%) & 6/10 (60%)
Being such a high calibre race in the calendar it’s no surprise to see that most winners have an OR of 160 or higher. Backing this metric blind would have shown a small loss both this century and in the last decade but if you put the bar up to 168 then you’d have shown a small profit in both time frames.
LAST TIME OUT
- Finished 1st last time out – 10/25 (40%) & 5/10 (50%)
- Last ran between 24-47 days – 22/25 (88%) & 8/10 (90%)
Last time out winners only account for up to half of the winners but it’s been profitable to back these blind for both the last century and the last decade but Conflated winning at 18/1 is the reason for the that.
It’s also been profitable to back all runners who last ran between 31 and 60 days ago due to both Carlingford Lough and Edwulf winning at big prices. Extend the range to the last 14-63 days and you’d capture every single winner but since Florida Pearl, no horse has won having run inside 24 days. The sweet spot here is clearly between 24 days and 47 days, but most runners fall into this window.
COURSE FORM
- Winners who had RUN at Leopardstown – 25/25 (100%) & 10/10 (100%)
- Winners who had WON at Leopardstown – 20/25 (80%) & 7/10 (70%)
- Winners who had RUN at Leopardstown 3 or more time – 19/25 (76%) & 9/10 (90%)
Every winner of this race has already run at Leopardstown and the vast majority had won around here too. Again, the vast majority had 3 or more runs at the track
DISTANCE FORM
- Winners who had RUN at about 23-25 furlongs – 24/25 (96%) & 9/10 (90%)
- Winners who had WON at about 23-25 furlongs – 20/25 (80%) & 7/10 (70%)
- Winners who had WON more than once at about 23-25 furlongs – 15/25 (60%) & 6/10 (60%)
- Winners who had WON 40% or more of their runs at about 23-25 furlongs – 17/25 (68%) & 7/20 (70%)
Only Sizing John hadn’t already raced at about 23-25 furlongs and most had won at about the trip too. With it being a Grade 1 that’s obvious though and maybe it’s worth looking at the strike rate at about that trip being over 40% which accounts for 70% of the winners
GRADED FORM
- Had won a Grade 1 – 22/25 (88%) & 8/10 (80%)
- Had won MORE than one Grade 1 – 16/25 (64%) & 7/10 (70%)
Again, given the nature of this race, it’s preferable to have previous Grade 1 winning form and ideally, on multiple occasions.
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