With 7 winners this century priced at 33/1 to 150/1 this might just be a race where trends can help find a runner who the market ignores. I’ve looked at every renewal this century and with a glance against the last 10 runnings, to see if we can figure out who might take this year’s Easter Monday prize.
KEY TRENDS
- Look to Irish or French Bred runners
- Respect 6 and 7-year-old runners and probably no older than 9-years-old
- Has NOT run at Fairyhouse or has 5 or more runs here
- Look to runners with an OR of 136 to 142 and carrying less than 11 stone
- Respect runners who last ran in Leopardstown or Fairyhouse
- Probably hasn’t won at 3m 2f or further
Focused Trends
AGE
- 6yo – 3/24 (12%) & 2/10 (20%)
- 7yo – 9/24 (38%) & 5/10 (50%)
- 8yo – 5/24 (21%) & 1/10 (10%)
- 9yo – 4/24 (17%) & 2/10 (20%)
- 10yo – 3/24 (12%) & 0/10 (0%)
Two of the last five winners were aged just 6-years-old and they hold the highest win strike-rate this century at 8% although they are loss makers to back blind.
7-year-olds have been prolific across both periods, and they’ve been profitable to back blind across both periods too. Freewheelin Dylan took this as a 9-year-old with an SP of 150/1 so he’s going to skew the figures for that age band, but they are currently profitable to back blind too.
BREEDING
- Irish Bred Winners – 19/24 (79%) & 7/10 (70%)
- French Bred Winners – 5/24 (21%) & 3/10 (30%)
Most winners of this race were Irish Bred and ALL winners this century were Irish or French Bred. 3 of the last 5 winners were French Bred including the last two so that might be something of a turning trend.
PRICE
- Favourites – 3/24 (12%) & 3/10 (30%)
- Priced 9/2 to 8/1 – 5/24 (21%) & 5/10 (50%)
- Priced 33/1 or bigger – & 2/10 (20%)
Favourites haven’t held the best record in the race this century, but all three winning favourites did come in the last decade which shows a profit of £11.50 for a 115% ROI.
As part of those favourites winning, shorter priced horses have fared better in the last decade with 5 winners this century priced 9/2 to 8/1 all coming in the last decade
There has been a history of big-priced winners in this race though, and 2 winners from the last 10 were priced 33/1 or bigger for a £94 profit and 7 winners this century for a £173 profit, just to SP alone.
RATINGS AND WEIGHT
- Winners with an OR of 142 or lower – 21/24 (88%) & 7/10 (70%)
- Winners carrying 10-13 or lower – 20/24 (83%) & 7/10 (70%)
Freewheelin Dylan boosts so many trends with his SP being so large, but most winners are carrying 10-13 or lower and are rated 142 or less. The 7 winners from the last 10 were rated between 136 and 142 so that’s something to look at.
Combining these measures you’d have found 19 winners this century for a profit of £102 but if you take out Freewheelin Dylan it’s a loss maker. If you tweak the measures to having a basement OR of 136 it does increase the profit to £138 to SP but you’d have found 8 winners, this century rather than 19. Does look like it might be a turning trend though to have 136 as the bottom end.
LAST TIME OUT
- Won last time out – 6/24 (25%) & 2/10 (20%)
- Top 3 last time out – 10/24 (42%) & 3/10 (30%)
- Last ran 16-30 days ago – 11/24 (46%) & 5/10 (50%)
- Last ran in Cheltenham – 7/24 (29%) & 3/10 (30%)
- Last ran in Leopardstown or Fairyhouse – 7/24 (29%) & 5/10 (50%)
Finishing position last time out isn’t a great help but most winners did last run between 16 and 30 days ago, although that’s not profitable to back blind.
Backing runners who last ran in Cheltenham, Leopardstown or Fairyhouse has been profitable this century for each, but in the last decade Cheltenham runners are loss makers yet both Punchestown and Fairyhouse runners show profit blind.
COURSE FORM
- Winners who had RUN at Fairyhouse – 17/24 (71%) & 7/10 (70%)
- Winners who had RUN 5+ times at Fairyhouse – 6/24 (25%) & 3/10 (30%)
This is a big fixture for Fairyhouse but they do attract lots of good horses in the early stages of their careers. Interestingly, most winners had not raced at this track before, but of those who had run here the best strike-rate by some way is for horses who 5 or more runs at the track. This is profitable to back blind across both periods and that’s without the help of Freewheelin Dylan. He makes the horses who hadn’t run here profitable to back blind too.
FORM
- Had RUN at 3m 5f or further – 11/24 (46%) & 4/10 (40%)
- Had WON at 3m 2f or further – 3/24 (12%) & 0/10 (0%)
- 3 to 5 runs this season – 14/24 (58%) & 6/10 (60%)
Most winners had 3-5 runs this season but for ruling out horses you’d just want a minimum of 3 runs this season really.
Around 40% of runners had raced at 3m 5f or further before so with the numbers of wins both this century and in the last decade, they perform to about expectation without factoring in price. Including price, they are loss makers though.
Around 20% of runners had won at 3m 2f or further but there hasn’t been a winner fitting that in the last decade and this century there have only been 3. Being unexposed at this kind of distance isn’t uncommon, but it is likely to be helpful in landing such a prestigious Handicap.
HEADGEAR
- Winners who were NOT wearing headgear – 18/24 (75%) & 5/10 (50%)
- Winners who were sporting Cheekpieces – 5/24 (21%) & 4/10 (40%)
Most winners were NOT wearing headgear but that’s a loss maker to follow blind. Cheekpieces have found 4 of the last 10 winners and there was only 1 prior to this so it’s another potentially turning trend. The only other winning headgear type was blinkers, but they’ve had two-thirds of the number of runners as Cheekpieces so don’t operate anywhere near the same level.
TRAINERS (two or more this century and at least one in the last decade)
- Thomas Gibney
- Dermot McLoughlin
- Mouse Morris
- Willie Mullins
- Jonjo and AJ O’Neill
It’s tricky to use trainers to find the winner of a big handicap such as an Irish National but big names like Gavin Cromwell, Henry De Bromhead and Joseph O’Brien appear to be ones to avoid and you might want to add Noel Meade to that list too.
HONOURS ROLL (This Century):
- 2024 – Intense Raffles (FR)
- 2023 – I Am Maximus (FR)
- 2022 – Lord Lariat (IRE)
- 2021 – Freewheelin Dylan (IRE)
- 2019 – Burrows Saint (FR)
- 2018 – General Principle (IRE)
- 2017 – Our Duke (IRE)
- 2016 – Rogue Angel (IRE)
- 2015 – Thunder And Roses (IRE)
- 2014 – Shutthefrontdoor (IRE)
- 2013 – Liberty Counsel (IRE)
- 2012 – Lion Na Bearnai (IRE)
- 2011 – Organisedconfusion (IRE)
- 2010 – Bluesea Cracker (IRE)
- 2009 – Niche Market (IRE)
- 2008 – Hear The Echo (IRE)
- 2007 – Butlers Cabin (FR)
- 2006 – Point Barrow (IRE)
- 2005 – Numbersixvalverde (IRE)
- 2004 – Granit DEstruval (FR)
- 2003 – Timbera (IRE)
- 2002 – The Bunny Boiler (IRE)
- 2001 – Davids Lad (IRE)
- 2000 – Commanche Court (IRE)