Viewers on ITV will be treated this Saturday, with nine live races across Ayr and Newbury’s cards, and GG’s in-house tipster Joe Napier has picked out five best bets.
1.30 Newbury – Dubai International Airport World Trophy Stakes (Group 3)
There are loads of credible betting options in the opener at Newbury on Saturday, but it could nevertheless pay to side with an outsider as SIGNIFICANTLY really came into his own this time last year, and should the expected rain have as detrimental effect to the surface as seems likely, he would be brought into calculations even more.
He won the Ayr Gold Cup with something to spare last season, either side of close runner-up efforts in soft ground handicaps at Doncaster and York. The former does give him a bit to turn around in terms of form with likely favourite Annaf, but while this season has not gone to plan for Julie Camacho’s charge, he was an unlucky loser in the Palace House Stakes at this level in May when he still may not have been finely tuned.
As a hold up horse, his having raced only at Newmarket and York this term, both front-running paradises, will noy have helped. However, his run at the latter venue two weeks ago should have been the necessary pipe opener for him to go much closer here.
1.50 Ayr – LiveScore Bet Doonside Cup Stakes (Listed)
NAP of the day potential belongs to ENFJAAR, who looks primed to overturn recent York running with Phantom Flight and continue what had otherwise been a very progressive season.
He has won handicaps at Chelmsford and York before a close second off 105 at Goodwood. Jack Mitchell then positioned him disadvantageously in the Group 3 Strensall Stakes on the Knavesmire, racing wide and handing a significant advantage to the more prominent Phantom Flight. However, that form is king in this contest and a 3lb swing in the weights should allow Roger Varian’s four-year-old to turn around the 2½-length deficit with George Scott’s current market leader, especially with the boost of Jim Crowley being back in the saddle.
2.40 Newbury – Dubai Duty Free Handicap
Once again, punters backing early should heed the forecasts. It seems unlikely Newbury will race on anything quicker than good-to-soft, which brings top-weight BOLSTER to the fore in this 1m2f handicap.
He is 4/8 in his career and 3/6 at this distance, the three defeats coming on rattling fast ground when he had not fully matured as a three-year-old, and one when sent over to Ireland in Group 3 company that term. However, he bumped into St Leger hero Jan Breughel that day, but was far from disgraced and can be readily excused his last of seven back over 1m at Ascot last time out.
He is only 3lb higher than when winning on his last handicap start at Epsom in June. The concern is how much he is pestered for the lead, but with the forecast throwing up questions for plenty of his rivals, he looks a solid each-way shout.
3.00 Ayr – Virgin Bet Every Saturday Money Back Firth Of Clyde (Group 3)
Likely favourite Sky Majesty has to overcome the trend of only one once-raced filly winning this in the last decade. Similarly, the last three winners have gone off at double-figure odds, with six of the last nine in all being priced at 10/1 or above.
This is broadly an open market anyway, but far enough down it after a promising run last time is PERFECT PART for Brian Ellison. She was a shock 125/1 winner on debut, but everything she has done since has suggested she is a useful filly, not far off Pattern quality.
She was then a clear second under a penalty second time out and fourth in a very competitive novice at Musselburgh, before racing in last of nine in what looked a strong renewal of the Lowther at York. She came through for fifth that day though, finishing ahead of fillies rated in the high 90s despite an inopportune track position and this race looks weaker. She could well play her part.
3.15 Newbury – Dubai Duty Free Mill Reef Stakes (Group 2)
Both Powerful Glory and Shadow Of Light bring high class potential and form, notably in the latter’s case. However, once again the potential trap of soft ground tempts this judge to find one at a sparkly price. Top two on the list are Defence Minister and BRIAN, though it is the latter who could represent the better value.
He is the most exposed in the field with seven runs already to his name, but he has continued to improve all season, bar a blip in an Ascot Listed race over 7f on good-to-firm ground. Otherwise, his two wins have come by nearly ten lengths combined on good-to-soft and soft ground, one of which was over this course and distance.
His third behind Symbol Of Strength at Kempton was a great effort from off the pace, and conditions here suggest a reversal of that form is likely. Should the market leaders fail to handle the ground as well, this 6,000gns yearling purchase could upset them all.
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