Saturday promises plenty of excitement, with Group 1s and the ever-competitive Cambridgeshire handicap taking place at Newmarket. Here are GG’s in-house tipster Joe Napier’s best bets.
1.30 Haydock – Sky Bet For The Fans Handicap
With at least some rain expected every day until Saturday, a slow ground renewal is promised and then some. Rhoscolyn could well win his second race in four days and Earls has course form on soft form earlier in the year, but the verdict goes to RAADOBARG, who may be the best suited overall on a severely declining mark.
As a six-year-old we are taking it slightly on trust that he is not simply a declining force, but he was third in the Irish Lincoln in March off 8lb higher than this on his last start on heavy. He was placed at Group level on soft fewer than 12 months ago too, while he also showed enough on his penultimate start at Ascot on unsuitably quick going to suggest he can still be a force when he gets his conditions.
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1.50 Newmarket – Juddmonte Royal Lodge Stakes (Group 2)
There is an outside chance the ground could dry slightly at Newmarket on Saturday, but the percentage call is for soft to prevail. That could level the playing field, with Luther a slight doubt to handle it, so WIMBLEDON HAWKEYE becomes the number one, as he should be on form anyway.
Although his sire Kameko never races on slower than good, his dam won both of her starts on good-to-soft, the slowest surface she faced. James Owen’s charge can be expected to handle it as a result, and ran a great race in a very hot renewal of the Acomb Stakes at York, finishing only behind next year’s Derby favourite. That looks superior to anything any rival has achieved, so his current odds look good value.
2.35 Curragh – Montane Developments Beresford Stakes (Group 2)
Though Aidan O’Brien’s extraordinary dominance of this event has been curtailed for the last two years, he looks set to regain this title among a small field. Lambourn did very well to win in France after a tardy start, but first time blinkers suggest they are still figuring him out, whereas TRINITY COLLEGE may be ready to shine.
Blinkers aided him no end when he ran rampant at Galway earlier this month, getting off the mark at the third attempt by 12 lengths. Though the form would not be anything to shout about, the manner of the success was obviously taking. His dam only found her best juvenile form later in the season, so it is on concern he took three runs to get off the mark, and the chances of him setting out and making all look good again. As the mount of Wayne Lordan, he has the jockey booking vote of confidence too.
3.40 Newmarket – bet365 Cambridgeshire
This is great fun to try and decipher, made all the more complicated due to a slight uncertainty in the ground. One easy factor to consider is the draw, with all of the last eight winners being drawn in stall 21 or above, showing the advantage of being near the stands’ rail, though believers in soft ground (and a low-drawn runner) will at least take heart from stall 3 berthing the last winner of this when the going was slower underfoot.
Nevertheless, the higher stalls look the way to go, particularly if a bigger mass of runners convene there. This Songisforyou has been the gamble of the race, but the booking of Jim Crowley aboard the three-year-old NORWALK HAVOC is an alluring one by Jessica Harrington.
Stall 26 is a positive, he enjoys a 2lb swing at the weights with the favourite for having beaten him at Galway last time out, and was notably strong at the finish that day. He was a runner-up at Listed level on soft earlier this season and looks ready for this extra furlong. At more than three times the price as the big gamble in the race, he looks a value alternative.
If you are of the persuasion to seek out an outsider, then perhaps LOOK BACK SMILING can also provide some value. The draw in stall 5 means trust must be placed in the previous soft ground Cambridgeshire in 2010, but he won the Spring Mile at Doncaster on soft earlier this season, and was only just touched off in the Thirsk Hunt Cup in May. Though on a career high mark of 89, we know he likes the likely ground, and there was promise in his comeback run at Ascot over 7f to suggest he can cope with an extra two furlongs and that he may have been prepared with this in mind.
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