The race has been run since 1968 but has been known as the John Durkan since it was renamed after the amateur jockey and assistant trainer in 1998.
It’s one of the early season highlights and with names like Dawn Run, Florida Pearl, Flemenstar, Galopin Des Champs (to name just a few) it’s easy to see why.
I’ve looked at each running this century and compared that to the last decade as the way national hunt horses are campaign now compared to 10/15 years ago can be very different and it’s apparent here in abundance.
KEY TRENDS
- 7-year-olds are the winning-most age
- Horses priced between 13/8 and 9/4 have been profitable to back blind
- ALL of the last 10 winners ran in a Grade 1 last time out
- ALL of the last 9 winners were rated 167 or higher
- ALL of the last 9 winners had NOT run already this season
- Will have been priced 5/1 or shorter last time out
- Will have won at between 2m3f and 2m5f or at least over further
- Probably had no more than 7 runs over hurdles
Focused Trends
AGE
- 6yo – 6/24 (25%) & 2/10 (20%)
- 7yo – 10/24 (42%) & 6/10 (60%)
- 8yo – 5/24 (21%) & 1/10 (10%)
- 9yo – 3/24 (13%) & 1/10 (10%)
6yo’s and 7yo’s have the best strike rate this century with 33% and 25% respectively and they account for two thirds of winners in that period and 80% of winners in the last decade. 8yo’s drop to 11% strike rate then it’s 9% for 9yo’s with the last double-figure aged winner coming all the way back in 1999
PRICE
- Favourites – 15/24 (63%) & 6/10 (60%)
Favourites have a consistent near 60% strike rate in the last 10 year and in all running’s and backing those blind would have yielded £7.65 profit from 26 qualifiers. There have been 9 odds-on runners this century with 6 winners and that just about yields a £1 profit backing blind however if you were to bet every runner priced between 13/8 and 9/4 regardless of their position in the market, you’d have shown a £7.51 profit from a £13 outlay. We’ve had a couple of winners from the last 3 renewals who were priced bigger than that, but historically it shows a loss if betting runners priced bigger than 9/4 blind.
OFFICIAL RATING
- Winners with an OR of 167 or more – 11/24 (46%) & 9/10 (90%)
A few metrics will show the change in recent running’s and Official Rating is one of those. ALL of the last 9 winners were rated 167 or above. That means, while we’ve had 11 meeting that criteria this century, there were just 2 rated higher than 167 from the previous 15 running’s. This does coincide with horses winning fresh which we’ll see as we move on.
LAST TIME OUT
- Ran between 210 and 270 days ago – 9/24 (58%) & 9/10 (90%)
- Ran less than 40 days ago – 14/24 (42%) & 1/10 (10%)
- Ran in a Grade 1 – 12/24 (50%) & 10/10 (100%)
- Won last time out – 10/24 (42%) & 5/10 (50%)
- Priced 5/1 or shorter last time out – 23/24 (96%) & 9/10 (90%)
- Ran at about 2m 4f – 8/24 (33%) & 2/10 (20%)
- Ran at about 2m – 8/24 (33%) & 3/10 (30%)
- Ran at about 3m – 8/24 (33%) & 5/10 (50%)
Last time out trends have seen a shift in the last decade. The last 9 winners have all come here without a run this season yet every winner before that had run at least once this term and the majority of those ran inside the last 40 days.
Status of certain has changed over the years, but also with more horses coming here fresh, we’ve seen more winners coming from Grade 1 races. In fact, ALL of the last 10 winners ran in a Grade 1 last time out, but this is considered in line with them all running fresh too.
Around half of winners had won last time out but all bar last years winner were priced no bigger than 5/1 on their previous start.
It’s an equal split across trips last time out this century, whether they ran at the trip or above or beneath it, however in the last decade we’ve seen more winners come back from about 3 miles last time out.
TRAINER
- Trained by Willie Mullins – 9/24 (38%) & 7/10 (70%)
Most races in Ireland have been dominated by Willie Mullins in recent years and this feels like the pinch-point at which Gordon Elliotts early season dominance starts to come to an end.
If you bet ALL of Willie Mullins’ runners in this race this century, you’d be losing £20.80 from 45 runners so it’s a hefty negative ROI. In the last decade you’d have lost £14.37 of that from 31 runners so it’s not quite as simple as just backing Willie’s in here.
COURSE FORM
- Winners who had RUN at Punchestown – 21/24 (88%) & 10/10 (100%)
- Winners who had WON at Punchestown – 16/21 (76%) & 8/10 (80%)
- Winner who ran at Punchestown Last Time Out – 7/24 (29%) & 7/10 (70%)
With Punchestown being one of the most prestigious racecourses in Ireland it’s no surprise to see the majority of winners have already run here and most of those have won here too. Flemenstar is the only Irish Trained winner to have not seen this track while the other two winners were both British trained. In line with the recent change to when horses had their last run, we’ve seen an influx in winners coming here from the Punchestown Festival in the spring.
DISTANCE FORM
- Winners who had WON at about 2m 4f – 23/24 (89%) & 9/10 (90%)
Bar last year’s winner, all winners of this race had already won at 2m3f-2m5f and most of those on more than one occasion.
CAREER FORM
- Had less than 8 runs over HURDLES – 23/24 (96%) & 10/10 (100%)
- Had either 3 or 4 wins over FENCES – 15/24 (63%) & 6/10 (60%)
All sorts of chasers can take this but all bar Fastorslow last year had won at least 3 times over fences and the majority had 3 or 4 wins. Interestingly, all bar one winner had no more than 7 runs over hurdles and two winners had come straight over fences
GRADED FORM
- Had already won a Grade 1 – 20/24 (83%) & 9/10 (90%)
Hardly surprising to see that most winners had already tasted Grade 1 glory and 3 of the 4 who hadn’t had won a Grade 2.
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