3 miles and 2 furlongs are covered with 21 fences due to be jumped in the Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Challenge Cup, and this is now an even bigger feature race for amateur riders with the National Hunt Chase rules changed this season.
Last year’s winner is now the favourite for this season’s Grand National and Angels Dawn took this two years ago and is vying for favouritism for this season’s Foxhunters Chase on Gold Cup Day.
I’ve looked at all runnings this century and in the last decade to see if we can work out what it typically takes to land this race.
KEY TRENDS
- Likely to be aged 7 or 8-years-old
- Respect the Top 3 in the market
- Look to those who last ran between 19 and 28 days ago
- Most winners had NOT won this season
- Most winners had 2 or fewer wins over fences
- Winning form at 24-26F is not essential
- Runners with Tongue-Ties have been profitable to back blind
- 5 of the last 6 winners were Novice Chasers
Focused Trends
AGE
- 6yo – 1/24 (4%) & 1/10 (10%)
- 7yo – 7/24 (29%) & 4/10 (40%)
- 8yo – 6/24 (25%) & 3/10 (30%)
- 9yo – 7/24 (29%) & 0/10 (0%)
- 10yo – 2/24 (8%) & 1/10 (10%)
- 11yo – 0/24 (0%) & 0/10 (0%)
- 12yo – 1/24 (4%) & 1/10 (10%)
Most winners of this race were aged between 7 and 9-years-old but there has been no 9-year-old winner since 2012. Last years’ winner was the only 6-year-old winner this century
PRICE
- Favourites – 6/24 (25%) & 2/10 (20%)
- Top 3 in the betting – 12/24 (50%) & 6/10 (60%)
We’ve had 5 winners this century priced 33/1 to 40/1 which is just one fewer than the number of winning favourites. There’s been one short-priced favourite, which came last year, but it’s been profitable across both the last decade and this century to just back all the front three in the betting.
RATINGS AND WEIGHT
- Winners with an OR between 137 and 145 – 13/24 (54%) & 8/10 (80%)
- Winners carrying 11 stone plus – 17/24 (71%) & 9/10 (90%)
This doesn’t look a race to find a sweet spot in ratings and weight as this handicap has a ceiling on it, so it’s very hard to find a window that works well. It’s typically quite condensed and most runners will fit the range of 137-145 rated while carrying 11 stone or more. It’s a loss maker with a 21% negative ROI.
LAST TIME OUT
- Won last time out – 4/24 (17%) & 1/10 (10%)
- Last ran 19-28 days ago – 11/24 (46%) & 5/10 (50%)
Not as many runners in this race were last time out winners in recent years but they operated at a lowly 3% strike rate. Runners who last ran 19-28 days ago account for around half of the winners and provide an ROI of 24% this century to SP alone.
CAREER FORM
- Winners who had run at Cheltenham – 14/24 (58%) & 6/10 (60%)
- No WIN this season – 13/24 (54%) & 7/10 (70%)
- Winners who had 10 or fewer RUNS over fences – 18/24 (75%) & 8/10 (80%)
- Winners who had 2 or fewer WINS over fences – 19/24 (79%) & 10/10 (100%)
- Winners who had already WON at 24-26F – 12/24 (50%) & 4/10 (40%)
5 of the last 6 winners were a Novice coming into this race so that helps to explain why winners of this race have 10 or fewer runs over fences. Most winners have 2 or fewer wins over fences and most winners hadn’t won a race this season.
Given the staying nature of this race, it’s a little surprising that as many winners this century as not, hadn’t win at between 24-26 furlongs before now and 4 of the last 10 winners hadn’t won over further than 2m1f!
HEADGEAR
8 winners this century wore headgear but that alone shows a 42% negative ROI vs a 27% negative ROI for non-headgear wearing runners.
7 winners this century were equipped with a tongue-tie and those produce a 15% ROI. Only one of those winners was in a first-time tongue-tie so you would be best served to just look at tongue-tie vs no tongue-tie rather than whether it was the first application or not.
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