The King George is only surpassed by the Gold Cup at Cheltenham as the most prestigious chase in England with Kauto Star landing this five times and Desert Orchid four times. 13 other horses have won this race more than once and it’s the highlight of the festive period.
I’ve looked at trends from this century and the last decade to see what it usually takes to land this feature Grade 1 race.
KEY TRENDS
- MUST have an Official Rating of at least 160
- MUST have already won a Grade 1
- Likely to be aged 6-9 and NOT 10 years old
- Probably will be Top 3 or 7th in the betting
- Should have run in the last 60 days and bonus if a winner last time out
- If British-trained should have already run at Kempton and if already run more than once at Kempton should have won
- MUST have run at 23-25f and if run more than once they should have won too
- Should have won at least 40% of their races and should already have 5 chase wins
Focused Trends
AGE
- 5yo – 0/24 (0%) & 0/10 (0%)
- 6yo – 4/24 (17%) & 1/10 (10%)
- 7yo – 8/24 (33%) & 2/10 (20%)
- 8yo – 7/24 (29%) & 6/10 (60%)
- 9yo – 3/24 (13%) & 1/10 (10%)
- 10yo – 0/24 (0%) & 0/10 (0%)
- 11yo – 2/24 (8%) & 0/10 (0%)
- 12yo – 0/24 (0%) & 0/10 (0%)
Backing 8yo’s or 11yo’s blind this century would have turned a profit and you’d be at a small loss backing the other ages. 6yo’s, 7yo’s and 11yo’s have the highest strike rate.
Most winners come from the bracket of 6-9yo’s so that’s not going to really help whittle down most fields.
PRICE
- Favourites – 11/24 (46%) & 3/10 (30%)
- Top 3 in the betting – 18/24 (75%) & 6/10 (60%)
Backing favourites blind this century has shown a small £0.94 profit and there were 9 winners priced 6/4 or shorter which shows a £2.18 profit if backing blind. Top 3 in the betting have most wins but it’s a loss maker, both this century and in the last 10 runnings. Curiously, three of the last six winners held the title of 7th in the market for a £54 profit backing blind. Might be better to bet the 7th in rather than opting for a pin if you’re that way inclined but you would need to wait right for the off.
OFFICIAL RATING
- Winners with an OR of 160 or more – 19/19 (100%) & 9/9 (100%)
- Winners with an OR of 170 or more – 10/19 (53%) & 1/9 (10%)
There are 5 winners this century who didn’t hold an OR at the time they ran in the King George who were Thistlecrack (2016), Kicking King (2004, 2005), Florida Pearl (2001) and First Gold (2000). I’d think two of those would certainly have been above 170-rated but essentially ALL winners of the King George are 160+ horses but ALL of the last 7 have not been higher than 169. Again, like age, this isn’t likely to help us out much in this years’ renewal.
LAST TIME OUT
- Ran at Haydock – 10/24 (42%) & 3/10 (30%)
- Ran in the last 60 Days – 21/24 (88%) & 9/10 (90%)
- Placed 1st – 13/24 (54%) & 5/10 (50%)
Looking at this century’s winner is slightly swayed by five-time winner Kauto Star so that affects Haydock last time out a little bit, but it’s still a good pointer in recent years. What has remained consistent is winners having placed 1st last time running at about 50% and winners having run inside the last 60 days at around 90%.
COURSE FORM
- Winners who had RUN at Kempton – 18/24 (75%) & 7/10 (70%)
- Winners who had WON at Kempton – 13/18 (72%) & 5/7 (71%)
Most runners in a King George had been to the track before and only two of the six were British-trained horses, Thistlecrack and Kauto Star. Most horses who had run here had also won here and every winner bar Cue Card who had more than one look at Kempton (10) had won here, so that looks quite relevant. Essentially, if a horse has been to Kempton more than once, they should have won here.
DISTANCE FORM
- Winners who had RUN at 23-25F – 24/24 (100%) & 10/10 (100%)
- Winners who had WON at 23-25F – 19/24 (79%) & 8/10 (80%)
- Winners who had WON at 23-25F with MORE than 1 run at 23-25F – 18/19 (95%) & 8/9 (89%)
Distance form is important here and all winners this century had at least one prior run at between 23-25f. There have been 5 winners who had just one run at 23-25f and four of those did not win in that run but 19 winners had more than one run at 23-25f and all bar 6yo Clan Des Obeaux had won too.
CAREER CHASE FORM
- Had 5 or more WINS over fences – 20/24 (83%) & 7/10 (70%)
- Had won 40% or more of races over fences – 21/24 (88%) & 7/10 (70%)
Three of the last six winners had NOT won at least 40% of their chase races but before than it was a criteria to hit. Number of chase runs can depend on age but more relevant seems to be the number of chase wins before landing a King George. Thistlecrack was a Novice when he won this but was unbeaten over fences from three starts so is a bit of an outlier, however preference must go to horses with five or more chase wins.
GRADED FORM
- Had already won a Grade 1 – 23/24 (96%) & 9/10 (90%)
- Had already won more than one Grade 1 – 17/24 (71%) & 5/10 (50%)
With many multiple winners of the race, we’ve possibly got a slightly skewed figure on Graded form, but it’s always been important to have tasted Grade 1 success before landing this and historically it was preferable to have won more than one. In recent years it’s been less important for multiple Grade 1 wins, and if you only take multiple winners first runs then the figure shows as 10/16 and 63%.
So, it’s still preferable to have won more than one Grade 1 but really the key stat is to have at least one Grade 1 under your belt. The only winner without a Grade 1 success prior was 6yo Clan Des Obeaux so you might want to forgive 6yo’s but this year it doesn’t matter with Spillane’s Tower already a Grade 1 winner.
PAUL NICHOLLS’ RECORD
It may be that Paul Nicholls’ isn’t represented by a fancied runner this year but it’s still worth remembering that he has trained the winner of six of the last 11 runnings and thanks to Kauto Star, 11 of the last 18 winners.
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