Ladbrokes Trophy Trends – Saturday Kempton Handicap Analysed

Another big 3-mile handicap but this time from Kempton. It’s a race that’s taken all types to win in the past, so I’ve looked at all running’s this century and the last decade to see what’s changing, what’s stayed the same, and more importantly; what it takes to find the winner.

KEY TRENDS

• Likely to be aged 7 to 9-years-old
• Finished top 3 last time out
• Has run 3 or more times this season
• Probably has won no more than once this season
• Has up to 4 career chase wins and 11 or fewer runs over fences
• Respect headgear but not for the first time

Focused Trends

AGE

• 6yo – 1/25 (4%) & 0/10 (0%)
• 7yo – 5/25 (20%) & 2/10 (20%)
• 8yo – 9/25 (36%) & 3/10 (30%)
• 9yo – 7/25 (28%) & 5/10 (50%)
• 10yo – 1/25 (4%) & 0/10 (0%)
• 11yo – 1/25 (4%) & 0/10 (0%)
• 12yo – 1/25 (4%) & 0/10 (0%)

In recent years, this race has typically gone to a runner aged between 7 and 9-years-old. You’d have to go back to 2011 for the last older horse which was 11-year-old Nacarat winning the race for a second time.

9-year-olds are profitable both this century and in the last decade while 7-year-olds are running at a £1 loss this century but an £8 profit in the last decade.

PRICE

• Favourites – 3/25 (12%) & 0/10 (0%)
• 2^nd, 3^rd or 4^th in the betting – 15/25 (60%) & 7/10 (70%)
• Priced 9/2 to 8/1 – 14/25 (56%) & 6/10 (60%)

Favourites are a big loss maker in this race with no winning favourite since 2008, but then are we due one?

Runners priced 2^nd, 3^rd and 4^th in the betting have all been profitable to back blind individually this century and in the last decade and most winners were priced no bigger than 14/1 but just backing all runners blind priced between 9/2 and 8/1 has been a profitable strategy in the last decade and this century.

RATINGS AND WEIGHT

• Winners with an OR between 147 or lower – 18/25 (72%) & 8/10 (80%)
• Winners carrying 11 stone or less – 14/25 (56%) & 7/10 (70%)

In the last decade, it’s been profitable to back all runners carrying 11 stone or less and it’s been a small loss maker to back all runners rated 147 or lower.

If combining both these metrics you’d have found 14 this century but returned a -20% ROI to SP. Moving into the last decade it’s found 7 winners from 74 qualifiers though and the ROI increases to 9% to SP.

LAST TIME OUT

• Won last time out – 11/25 (44%) & 1/10 (10%)
• Top 3 last time out – 20/25 (80%) & 8/10 (80%)
• Last ran 16-30 days ago – 12/25 (48%) & 4/10 (40%)

Last time out winners have been a loss maker and mostly thanks to the record in the last decade. Horses who placed 2^nd or 3^rd last time out are profitable to back blind this century and in the last decade.

Most winners come from the band of last running 16-30 days ago which is also profitable to back blind for a near 10% ROI. There have been 3 winners from 5 runners this century, and 2 winers from 4 runners in the last decade, who last ran between 100 and 120 days ago. No entry this year running from that bracket but it’s one I like to mention year in year out and found us Our Power a couple of years back.

COURSE FORM – (removed the 2006 running as held at Sandown)

• Winners who had RUN at Kempton – 15/24 (63%) & 6/10 (60%)
• Winners who had WON at Kempton – 11/15 (73%) & 3/6 (50%)

Around two-thirds of winners had run at Kempton and most of those had won here too. It’s clearly not essential to have run here, but it’s desirable. The same goes for winning here.

CAREER FORM

• Had won at 3 miles or further – 15/25 (60%) & 6/10 (60%)
• Winners who had 11 or fewer RUNS over fences – 17/25 (68%) & 7/10 (70%)
• Winners who had 2-4 WINS over fences – 18/25 (72%) & 7/10 (70%)
• Winners who had 3 or MORE runs this season – 22/25 (88%) & 8/10 (80%)
• Winners who no more than ONE win this season – 17/25 (68%) & 10/10 (100%)

Only 3 winners had NOT already run at 3 miles or further but only just over half of the winners of this had already won at 3 miles plus. Most winners had 11 or fewer runs over fences and most winners had between 2 and 4 wins over fences.

Most winners had 3 or more runs this season and in recent years there’s been a shift towards winners not having won more than one race this season.

HEADGEAR

• Winners who wore headgear but NOT for the first time – 7/25 (28%) & 6/10 (60%)

Horse wearing headgear not for the first time are loss makers this century but only for around -2% ROI. In the last decade though they provide a 47% ROI with 6 of the 7 winners fitting this criteria coming in that period. That looks a trend turning in favour of headgear now whereas it wasn’t a positive before. Could be variance but could be a sign of a