The flat is back when the Lincoln Handicap is being discussed, and this mile handicap is a race worth winning.
I’ve looked at every winner this century at Doncaster and compared it with the last 10 runnings to work out what it takes to land this historic handicap.
KEY TRENDS
- Probably a 4 or 5-year-old
- Preference to runners carrying 9-0 to 9-4
- Preference to runners with an OR of 99 to 102
- Last ran 126 days ago or more
- More winners did NOT run between 7.5 and 8.5 furlongs last time out than did
- Is NOT wearing headgear
- Ideally should have already won at 8 furlongs, preferably multiple times
- Look to those with 3 to 6 runs in the last 365 days
Focused Trends
AGE
- 4yo – 11/22 (50%) & 5/10 (50%)
- 5yo – 6/22 (27%) & 3/10 (30%)
- 6yo – 4/22 (18%) & 1/10 (10%)
- 7yo – 1/22 (5%) & 1/10 (10%)
A very similar split across both periods measured and worth mentioning that most runners are aged 4 or 5-years-old. While 4-year-olds account for most winners they are a loss maker blind, but 5-year-olds have been profitable to back blind in the last decade.
PRICE
- Favourites – 6/22 (27%) & 1/10 (10%)
- 12/1 to 33/1 – 13/22 (59%) & 7/10 (70%)
Favourites are profitable to back blind this century however they’re a loss maker in the last decade, so we might be due one. That said, backing all runners priced between 12/1 and 33/1 at SP would have shown a £35 profit from £115 staked in the last decade for an ROI of 30% which increases to 89% using Betfair SP.
DRAW
- Drawn in the TOP half – 11/22 (50%) & 6/10 (60%)
- Drawn in the BOTTOM half – 11/22 (50%) & 4/10 (40%)
- Stall 10 or higher – 12/22 (55%) & 7/10 (70%)
Historically, there doesn’t seem to be an obvious draw bias based on the winners however 7 of the last 9 winners were drawn in Stall 10 or higher.
WEIGHT
- Carrying 9 stone to 9 stone 4lbs – 11/22 (50%) & 7/10 (70%)
Most winners carry between 8-8 and 9-4 but if you backed all runners weighted 9-0 to 9-4 then you’d be showing a profit this century and in the last decade.
OFFICIAL RATING
- Winners with an OR of 97 to 102 – 12/22 (55%) & 8/10 (80%)
There does seem to be an increase in the OR of the typical Lincoln winner these days with 9 of the last 10 rated 99 or above. In fact, if you just backed all runners rated 99 to 102 in the last decade you’d be showing a £32 profit from an £80 layout.
If you added in the weight range of 9-0 to 9-4 as well as an OR of 99 to 102, you’d have found half the winners in the last decade for a £67 profit from £30 layout!
LAST TIME OUT
- Won – 10/22 (45%) & 5/10 (50%)
- Last ran 126 to 238 days ago – 20/22 (91%) & 10/10 (100%)
- Last ran NOT over 7.5f to 8.5 furlongs – 13/22 (59%) & 6/10 (60%)
Backing last time out winners blind is profitable over both periods. Most winners hadn’t run for 126 days or more, especially in recent renewals.
It’s been profitable to back all runners who did NOT run at 7.5f to 8.5f in the last decade for a 37% ROI which drops to just 4% if looking across this century.
COURSE FORM
- Winners who had RUN at Doncaster – 10/22 (45%) & 4/10 (40%)
More winners had NOT run at Doncaster before, and they are profitable to back blind in the last decade but show a very small loss this century.
DISTANCE FORM
- Winners who had RUN at 8f or further – 22/22 (100%) & 10/10 (100%)
- Winners who had WON at 8 furlongs – 17/22 (77%) & 8/10 (80%)
Every winner had already raced at 8 furlongs or further and most winners had already won at 8 furlongs too.
In the last decade, the strike rate increases for the more wins held at 8 furlongs. 3% for 0, 4% for 1, 7% for 2, 8% for 3 and 9% for 4.
RUNS IN THE LAST 365 DAYS
- Had 3 to 6 runs in the last 365 days – 12/22 (55%) & 7/10 (70%)
More winners than not had between 3 and 6 runs in the last 365 days which has shown a 39% ROI in the last decade and 15% this century.
HEADGEAR
- Did NOT wear Headgear – 20/22 (91%) & 9/10 (90%)
Most winners do not wear any kind of headgear. One winner wore Cheekpieces and one winner wore a visor.
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