The Liverpool Hurdle was established in 1974, and it was originally held at Ascot. The race was transferred to Aintree in 2004, and since then it has been named after the nearby city of Liverpool and takes place during the Grand National festival. The Liverpool Hurdle was promoted to Grade 1 status in 2010, and it currently takes place on the final day of the three-day Grand National meeting.
Dave Young looks at all the runnings since moving to Aintree and in comparison to the last 10, to see if
we can profile the typical winner of this event.
KEY TRENDS
- The winner will be 6 to 8-years-old and 7-years-old have the best place strike-rate
- Favourites perform slightly below expectations
- Runners priced 9/2 to 6/1 and 14/1 to 20/1 have been profitable in the last 10 renewals for a 100% ROI
- Probably is NOT the Top-rated runner in the field but holds an OR of 156+
- Just one winner since 2016 came from the Stayers’ Hurdle at Cheltenham
- Runners priced 8/1 or shorter who have won at Aintree are profitable to back blind
- Ideally has already won a Grade 1
- Runners with their furthest win at 2m4f or shorter are profitable to back blind in the last 10 renewals (88% ROI)
Focused Trends
AGE
- 6yo – 4/20 (20%) & 1/10 (10%)
- 7yo – 9/20 (45%) & 5/10 (50%)
- 8yo – 3/20 (15%) & 2/10 (20%)
- 9yo – 2/20 (10%) & 0/10 (0%)
- 10yo – 1/20 (5%) & 1/10 (10%)
- 11yo – 1/20 (5%) & 1/10 (10%)
Seven and eight-year-olds have taken seven of the last 10 renewals, but the only profitable ages in that period were 10 and 11-year-olds.
45% of seven-year-olds have placed and that’s consistent across both periods measured.
PRICE
- Favourites – 9/20 (45%) & 3/10 (30%)
- Priced 9/4 or shorter – 9/20 (45%) & 2/10 (20%)
Favourites are a small loss maker across both periods and short-priced favourites have performed just below expectations and are showing a small loss too.
Curiously, in the last 10 renewals if you backed every runner priced 9/2 to 6/1 and 14/1 to 20/1, you’d be showing a 100% ROI for £29 profit. There were five winners from this yet there were non from the previous 10 runnings.
RATINGS – (Since 2008)
- Winners with an OR of 156 or more – 13/16 (81%) & 7/10 (70%)
- Winners holding the highest OR in the field – 7/16 (44%) & 2/10 (20%)
Backing all runners since 2008 with an OR of 156 or higher would show a small loss but it’s been profitable to back blind in the last 10 renewals. It’s found most winners across both periods too.
Most winners of this race are NOT the top-rated runner in the field and following the ‘best’ horse in the race has been a loss maker.
LAST TIME OUT
- Won last time out – 9/20 (45%) & 3/10 (30%)
- Second last time out – 4/20 (20%) & 2/10 (20%)
- Last ran at Cheltenham – 17/20 (85%) & 8/10 (80%)
Last time out winners are a loss maker over both periods, but you’d be 50p in profit if you followed horses who placed second last time out, but losing 12p since 2004.
Most winners came from Cheltenham, but so did most runners. Looking at the Stayers’ Hurdle as an in to the race; from 2004 to 2016 it found 11 winners and 10 of those were favourite or second favourite for this race. Since then though, 28 horses have attempted to win here after running in the Stayers at Cheltenham with only Sire Du Berlais doing the business and he won both
COURSE FORM
- Winners who had RUN at Aintree – 17/20 (85%) & 7/10 (70%)
- Winners who had WON at Aintree – 12/17 (71%) & 4/7 (57%)
Most winners will have been to Aintree before but in more recent years, it’s not been essential to have won here before.
There is a profitable strategy which can be applied; runners who had won at Aintree and sent of with an SP of 8/1 or shorter are showing a 48% ROI since 2004 and 58% from the last 10 runnings.
SEASON FORM
- Winners who had 3-5 runs this season – 13/20 (65%) & 7/10 (70%)
- Winners who had 0-1 wins this season – 12/20 (60%) & 7/10 (70%)
This century, the best strike-rate comes from runners who had three to four runs this season but it’s two or four runs this season that have performed well in the last 10.
Also, in the last 10 runnings we’ve seen that horses with 0 wins or just one win this season have taken most races and while they’re losing blind to SP, they show a 9% ROI to Betfair SP.
DISTANCE FORM
- Winners who had RUN at 3 miles or further – 16/20 (80%) & 6/10 (60%)
- Winners who had WON at 3 miles or further – 14/16 (88%) & 5/6 (83%)
While preferable, it’s not essential to have tried THREE miles before now. If you were to back all runners who had their furthest win at 2m4f or shorter then you’d be losing just £1 since 2004 but winning £15 from the last 10 renewals for an 88% ROI.
GRADED FORM
- Had already won a Grade 1 – 13/20 (65%) & 9/10 (90%)
- Had already won MORE than one Grade 1 – 10/20 (50%) & 6/10 (60%)
Most winners had won a Grade 1 before now and that’s been essential in the last 10 runnings with nine of the 10 ticking that box. Multiple Grade 1 wins are consistent across both periods.
Honours Roll
- 2024 – Strong Leader (GB)
- 2023 – Sire Du Berlais (FR)
- 2022 – Sire Du Berlais (FR)
- 2021 – Thyme Hill (GB)
- 2019 – If The Cap Fits (IRE)
- 2018 – Identity Thief (IRE)
- 2017 – Yanworth (GB)
- 2016 – Thistlecrack (GB)
- 2015 – Whisper (FR)
- 2014 – Whisper (FR)
- 2013 – Solwhit (FR)
- 2012 – Big Buck’s (FR)
- 2011 – Big Buck’s (FR)
- 2010 – Big Buck’s (FR)
- 2009 – Big Buck’s (FR)
- 2008 – Blazing Bailey (GB)
- 2007 – Mighty Man (FR)
- 2006 – Mighty Man (FR)
- 2005 – Monets Garden (IRE)
- 2004 – Iris’s Gift (GB)