The event is named after The Long Walk, an avenue of trees in Windsor Great Park and it was given Grade 1 status in 1990. Prior to the redevelopment of Ascot Racecourse between 2004–06, the distance of the race was 3m and 1½f but is now set at 3m ½f.
This century, five winners have gone on to win the Stayers’ Hurdle in the same season:
Baracouda (01/02), My Way de Solzen (05/06), Big Buck’s (09/10, 10/11 and 11/12), Thistlecrack (15/16) and Paisley Park (18/19).
I’ve looked at trends from this century and the last decade to see what it usually takes to land this feature Grade 1 race.
KEY TRENDS
- ALL winners this century have come from the Top 5 in the market
- Should have an OR of 151 or higher
- Preferably ran in the last 38 days
- Ideally will have already won at about 3m but should have run at about 3m
- Has 4 or more wins over hurdles but MUST have at least 3
- Grade 1 form is desirable but not essential
Focused Trends
AGE
- 4yo – 0/24 (0%) & 0/10 (0%)
- 5yo – 4/24 (17%) & 1/10 (10%)
- 6yo – 5/24 (21%) & 2/10 (20%)
- 7yo – 4/24 (17%) & 1/10 (10%)
- 8yo – 6/24 (25%) & 3/10 (30%)
- 9yo – 3/24 (12%) & 2/10 (20%)
- 10yo – 2/24 (8%) & 1/10 (10%)
- 11yo – 0/24 (0%) & 0/10 (0%)
No real bias for ages either this century or in the last 10 years. 9yo’s would show a profit if backing blind but all other ages would be loss makers.
PRICE
- Favourites – 11/24 (46%) & 3/10 (30%)
- Top 3 in the betting – 20/24 (83%) & 8/10 (80%)
- Top 5 in the betting – 24/24 (100%) & 10/10 (100%)
- Priced 9/4 or shorter – 12/24 (50%) & 4/10 (40%)
All winners this century have come from the top five in the betting and would have yielded less than a £1 loss if backing all qualifiers blind. It is not going to make you money but wouldn’t cost you much either. If you backed every runner priced 9/4 or shorter you’d have had half of the winners this century and showed an 11% ROI, the same for the last 10 runnings would have given you an ROI of 25%.
There has been no winner priced bigger than 8/1 since 2007 when 14/1 shot Lough Derg took the race. He’s the biggest priced winner this century too.
OFFICIAL RATING
- Winners with an OR of 151 or more – 20/24 (83%) & 9/10 (90%)
- Winners with an OR of 160 or more – 13/24 (54%) & 4/10 (40%)
With Baracouda and Big Buck’s sharing seven renewals this century they do bring bigger numbers to the table, but we’ve had two winners off the lowest OR of 142. Class can prevail but it’s been a competitive race for many years now and you’d just be looking for a runner with an OR of 151+
LAST TIME OUT
- Ran at Newbury – 13/24 (54%) & 5/10 (50%)
- Ran in the last 38 Days – 22/24 (92%) & 8/10 (80%)
- NONE of the last 5 winners won last time out
13 winners this century came from Newbury but it’s a loss maker as most runners come from there. All winners this century had last run within 49 days (Reve De Sivola 2014 was 49, all others inside 38 days) or 274 days ago (Champ). That’s a negative for the new JP recruit The Wallpark for this years’ renewal.
COURSE FORM (04,05,09,10,22 renewals NOT run at Ascot)
- Winners who had RUN at Ascot – 13/19 (68%) & 7/10 (70%)
- Winners who had WON at Ascot – 7/13 (54%) & 4/7 (57%)
Five renewals have not been held at Ascot so of those that have around two-thirds of winners had been to Ascot and more than half of those had won here too. Plenty have won here first time up so it’s not really essential to have course form but you’d expect if a horse has been here more than once that they would have run well here at least.
DISTANCE FORM
- Winners who had RUN at about 3M – 23/24 (96%) & 10/10 (100%)
- Winners who had WON at 3M – 19/24 (79%) & 9/10 (90%)
Distance form is important here and it’s only been Punchestowns who has won this having not run over a trip of about 3 miles. Since 2009, every winner has raced at about 3 miles and only two hadn’t won at about that trip too.
CAREER HURDLE FORM
- Had 10 or more RUNS over hurdles – 16/24 (67%) & 5/10 (50%)
- Had 4 or more WINS over hurdles – 19/24 (79%) & 9/10 (90%)
- ALL winners had at least 3 wins over hurdles
Five of the last 10 winners had just six or seven runs over hurdles and ALL of those had won at least half of those hurdle races. Will have at least three wins over hurdles but should have four or more ideally.
GRADED FORM
- Had already won a Grade 1 – 15/24 (63%) & 7/10 (70%)
- Had already won at least a Grade 2 – 18/24 (71%) & 7/10 (70%)
It’s preferable to have already won a Grade 1 but the last five who hadn’t had no Grade 2 wins either. So, Grade 1 form is preferable but not essential and the last 15 winners had won at least a Grade 3, and 12 had won at least a Grade 2.
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