17 fences to be jumped in the Mares’ Chase and while it’s only been in the Festival calendar for 4 seasons up to now, it’s provided some thrilling clashes.
Just 4 renewals of this race but I’ve looked at them all to see what’s it taken to land this race up to now.
KEY TRENDS
- Will be aged 7 or 8
- Likely to be priced 3/1 or shorter
- Won last time out
- Has 3 runs this season
- Rated 147 or higher
- Is NOT the highest Official Rated runner (One winner but was joint highest rated)
Focused Trends
AGE
- 7yo – 2/4 (50%)
- 8yo – 2/4 (50%)
All four winners were aged 7 or 8-years-old and they both operate at an 18% strike rate. All ages bar 9-year-olds have lost around £4 though in the history of the race whereas those 9-year-olds are even deeper in the red at minus £7.
PRICE
- Favourites – 0/4 (0%)
- Second favourites – 3/4 (75%)
- Priced 4/1 or shorter – 4/4 (100%)
No winning favourite of this race yet but we’ve had three winning second favourites who are profitable to back blind for a 135% ROI.
Backing runners priced 3/1 or shorter has shown a 34% ROI so you must respect the front of the market.
LAST TIME OUT
- Won last time out – 4/4 (100%)
- Raced in Ireland – 3/4 (75%)
Last time out winners have taken all running’s of this race, but it is a loss maker to back that metric blind. 3 of the 4 winners last run in Ireland despite all 4 winners being Irish trained.
CAREER FORM
- Winner who had run 3 times that season – 4/4 (100%)
- Winners who had won at 2m4f to 2m5f – 4/4 (100%)
All winners of this race had run exactly 3 times that season and all the winners had already won at 2m4f to 2m5f.
WEIGHT
- Carrying 11 stone 2 pounds – 2/4 (50%)
- Carrying 11 stone 5 pounds – 1/4 (25%)
- Carrying 11 stone 7 pounds – 1/4 (25%)
There has been just one winner carrying 11 stone 7 pounds but there have only been two up to now who have tried, so they operate at a 50% strike rate. This drops for 11 stone 5 pound runners to 10% then down to 8% for those carrying the minimum 11 stone 2 pounds.
OFFICIAL RATING
- Top Rated winners – 1/4 (25%)
- Rated 147 or higher – 4/4 (100%)
There has been one winning Top Rated runner but it was in a year where there were joint highest rated runners, so you could say that every year a highest rated runner has failed to win the race.
All winners have been rated 147 or higher with three of those rated 150 plus.
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