A feature of the Festival since 2008 and thanks to its introduction, we saw Quevega land 6 Cheltenham Festival titles. She was very much her own type though, coming here fresh every year bar the first, so she certainly skews the figures prior to this being upgraded to a Grade 1. That happened in 2015 when Glens Melody was the beneficiary of THAT Annie Power fall, but it’s been a decade since that so it’s nice period to review.
So that said, I’ve looked at every running since it’s been a Grade 1 as I think the weight of Quevega’s record will not be helpful but hopefully, we can learn from the last decade to work out who wins this race.
KEY TRENDS
- Will be aged 7 or younger (7-year-olds have been profitable to back blind)
- Ideally won last time out (Profitable to back blind)
- Last ran between 31 and 60 days ago
- Has won 50% or more of their hurdle races
- Has won a Grade 2 or better before now
- 7 of the last 10 winners were NOT the highest rated runner
Focused Trends
AGE
- 5yo – 2/10 (20%)
- 6yo – 1/10 (10%)
- 7yo – 6/10 (60%)
- 8yo – 0/10 (0%)
- 9yo – 1/10 (10%)
Honeysuckle is the only 9yo winner of this race in the last decade and she’s also the only dual winner in that period too. 7-year-olds have the most wins in this race and they are profitable to back blind with a £13.17 profit from £43 outlay.
PRICE
- Favourites – 3/10 (30%)
- Top 3 in the betting – 8/10 (80%)
Favourites have a bad record in this race with the likes of Annie Power and Benie Des Dieux beaten having fallen at the last with their races put to bed. Someone has to benefit from that though and 2nd and 3rd favourites are both profitable to back blind since it’s become a Grade 1.
The two horses who won outside the Top 3 in the betting were both 7-year-olds, so that might be worth bearing in mind if taking on the front of the market, but it’s shown a £1 loss in the last decade with a -3% ROI.
RATINGS
- Winners with an OR of 153 or more – 5/10 (50%)
- Winners with the highest OR in the field – 3/10 (30%)
We’ve had some big names come in here, so half of the winners being rated 152 or below might be a little surprising. Only 3 of the 10 winners were the highest rated runner in the field and they’ve accounted for the favourite in all 10 years (from 13 qualifiers), which you might expect.
LAST TIME OUT
- Won last time out – 7/10 (70%)
- Ran between 31 and 60 days ago – 8/10 (80%)
It’s been profitable to back all last time out winners blind in this race with a £6 profit from £44 outlay. Most winners last ran between 31 and 60 days ago but that’s a loss maker to follow on its own.
COURSE FORM
- Winners who had RUN at Cheltenham – 6/10 (60%)
- Winners who had WON at Cheltenham – 2/6 (33%)
The last four winners of this race have already run at Cheltenham but only two of those had won here, and they were unbeaten.
HURDLE CAREER FORM
- Winners who had 10 or MORE hurdle runs – 4/10 (40%)
- Winners who had won 50% or MORE of their hurdle races – 7/10 (70%)
Tying in with the age bracket, most winners of this race have less than 10 runs over hurdles to their name and most winners had won at least half of their hurdle races.
GRADED FORM
- Had already won a Grade 1 – 5/10 (50%)
- Had won a Grade 2 or better – 7/10 (70%)
- Had won a Grade 3 or better – 8/10 (80%)
Just two winners of this race hadn’t tasted Graded success before now and both of those were aged 7 which comes back to that number once again. Half had already won a Grade 1 though and 4 of those 5 gained a Grade 1 success in Open company.
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