A Grade 2 Novices’ Hurdle for the mares and being a Grade 2 it has a penalty system rather than all runners simply running off the same weight. It started off as another race dominated by Willie Mullins who took the first 5 renewals, but different trainers have won each of the last 4.
The race has been in place since 2016 so I’ve looked all runnings to see if we can profile a type to go well in this.
KEY TRENDS
- Will be aged 5 or 6
- Likely to be priced 9/2 or bigger (last 6 winners)
- Last ran 28-47 days ago
- Has 2-4 runs over hurdles and has won 2 or more of those
- Rated 135 or higher
- Is NOT the highest Official Rated runner (only winner came in 2017)
- Is NOT carrying a 3lb penalty
Focused Trends
AGE
- 5yo – 4/9 (44%)
- 6yo – 5/9 (56%)
80% of runners are aged 5 or 6 but they account for all the winners. 5-year-olds show a £1.32 loss yet 6-year-olds show a £15 loss. There isn’t enough this to favour one or the other, so you’d just expect the winner come from either age.
PRICE
- Favourites – 3/9 (33%)
- Priced 9/2 or bigger – 6/9 (67%)
There have been three winning favourites of this race and those came in the first three renewals. Since then, there’s only been one winning second favourite, and all the last 6 winners were priced 9/2 or bigger.
LAST TIME OUT
- Won last time out – 6/9 (67%)
- Placed third last time out – 3/9 (33%)
- Last ran 28-47 days go – 9/9 (100%)
Last time out winners have taken 6 of the 9 running’s but they accounted for almost half the runners, and they show a near £28 loss to £1 stakes.
Horses who placed third last time out took three consecutive renewals in 19, 20 and 21 and thanks to the 50/1 SP of Eglantine Du Seuil, they show a £41.50 profit to £1 stakes.
CAREER FORM
- Winners who had won TWO or more races over hurdles – 7/9 (78%)
- Winners who had 2-4 runs over hurdles – 7/9 (78%)
- Winners who were NOT unbeaten over hurdles – 6/9 (67%)
Most winners of this race had between 2 and 4 runs over hurdles and had won 2 or more of their hurdles starts. Three winners were unbeaten coming into this but only Limini who took the inaugural running of this was an unbeaten winning favourite.
WEIGHT
- Carrying 11 stone 2 pounds – 4/9 (44%)
- Carrying 11 stone 7 pounds – 5/9 (56%)
5-year-olds and older will carry 11 stone 2 pounds with a penalty structure that can see this increase either 3lbs or 5lbs. No winner has shouldered a 3lb penalty to success but those with the 5lbs penalty have taken more than half of the renewals. They operate at a 15% strike rate vs a 4% strike rate for runners without a penalty.
OFFICIAL RATING
- Top Rated winners – 1/9 (11%)
- Rated 135 or higher – 7/9 (78%)
There has only been one winner of this race who held the highest official rating and that came back in 2017. Brighterdaysahead is the only other runner to have placed as the highest rated runner. Most winners held an OR of 135 or higher but that only accounts for around a third of the runners.
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