The last race of The Cheltenham Festival and often associated with a number of gambles. The race was introduced in 2009 and since then we’ve had many repeat festival winners including Galopin Des Champs.
I’ve looked at all runnings and compared to the last decade to see what it typically takes to win this race.
KEY TRENDS
- Likely to be aged 5 to 7-years-old
- Only one winning favourite in the race’s history
- Typically priced between 9/2 and 12/1 (35% ROI backing blind the last decade)
- Respect last time out winners
- Unlikely to be unbeaten
- Probably has between 1-2 wins over hurdles but not more than 4
- A tongue-tie being worn is not a negative unless it’s the first time
- Will have raced at 19-21 furlongs, bonus if won at the trip too
Focused Trends
AGE
- 5yo – 5/16 (31%) & 3/10 (30%)
- 6yo – 9/16 (56%) & 5/10 (50%)
- 7yo – 2/16 (13%) & 2/10 (20%)
6-year-olds have the best strike rate since the introduction of this race but in the last decade it’s been 7-year-olds that have been the closest to breaking even. There has been no winner older than 7 in this races’ history and with the changes to handicap rules for novices, it may just be that 6 and 7-year-olds benefit further.
PRICE
- Favourites – 1/16 (6%) & 0/10 (0%)
- Priced 9/2 to 12/1 – 10/16 (63%) & 8/10 (80%)
There has been just one winning favourite in this race and that came back in the third running with 9/2 shot Sir Des Champs. To think that Galopin Des Champs was sent off an 8/1 shot might just tell you all you need to know about this race.
The market isn’t a million miles off though, with most winners coming from the Top 7 in the betting and if you were to back all runners priced 9/2 to 12/1 blind, you’d be showing a 35% ROI in the last decade.
RATINGS AND WEIGHT
- Winners with an OR between 137 and 145 – 13/16 (81%) & 9/10 (90%)
- Winners carrying 11-3 to 11-10 – 14/16 (88%) & 9/10 (90%)
With the ceiling on this race being set at 145 it can end up a condensed race in terms of ratings. If you were to back all runners rated 137-145 in the last decade you’d be showing a loss, as would you this century. Backing runners with an OR of 141 to 145 does show a profit in both periods but it’s thanks to 25/1 winner Indefatigable. Most winner carry between 11-3 to 11-10 but that alone is a loss maker too.
In combining both measure of an OR of 137-145 and carrying the weight of 10-3 to 11- would have found 13 of the 16 winners and shown a 13% ROI to SP but a 47% ROI to Betfair SP. Combining the same for the last decade would have found the last 9 winners but it shows a -15% ROI to SP however a +15% ROI to Betfair SP.
LAST TIME OUT
- Won last time out – 8/16 (50%) & 4/10 (40%)
- Finished Top 3 time out – 12/16 (75%) & 8/10 (80%)
Not a whole host to be gained from last time out performances although you’d have broken level backing last time out winners in the last decade and you’d still be showing a 20% ROI if backing those since the race started. All other finishing positions were loss makers in the long term apart from 4th place last time out which is still thanks to the inaugural winner, 25/1 shot Andytown.
CAREER FORM
- Winners who were unbeaten that season – 2/16 (13%) & 1/10 (10%)
- Winners who 1-2 hurdle wins – 13/16 (81%) & 8/10 (80%)
- Winners who had RUN at 19-21 furlongs – 14/16 (87%) & 9/10 (90%)
- Winners who had WON at 19-21 furlongs – 8/14 (57%) & 6/9 (67%)
All but one winner had 3 or fewer wins over hurdles but most had just 1 or 2 and no winner was still winless over hurdles. Most winners had run at 19-21 furlongs before now and around two-thirds of those has won at the 19-21 trip too.
HEADGEAR
Just 2 winners of the 16 sported headgear and it was NOT the first time they had worn it. It’s a loss maker to back either measure blind though, with or without headgear.
5 winners of this race have won equipped with a tongue-tie. It shows a -15% ROI to SP but a +17% ROI to Betfair SP. If you just looked at runners wearing a tongue-tie and NOT for the first time the ROI’s increase to +3% to SP and +42% the Betfair SP.
Looking For More Racing Info? Check Out Our Racecards & Top Tips Sections
Make sure you’re following us on all our social media platforms to keep up to date with all the latest horse racing news and the best tips.