The Breeders’ Cup ramps up a gear on Saturday, with the hotly-anticipated Breeders’ Cup Classic providing a date with destiny for City Of Troy. Aidan O’Brien’s hopeful shoulders the hopes of many on these shores, including Matty Sutcliffe, though our value man has spotted a decent outsider to take him on with too.
Published: 9.20am, Wednesday, November 1st (Odds correct at time of writing)
7:41 Del Mar – Prevagen Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint (Grade 1) (3yo+) (Turf) (3yo+) Arzak 25/1 generally (40/1 William Hill) 0.5pt ew 3 places
Cogburn is deemed the fastest horse in the world by most, and could easily be unbeatable here. But it’s worth noting that there’s only been one winning favourite of this race within the last ten years, and ARZAK makes some appeal from an outsiders’ perspective.
He fared best of those racing in rear when a three-length second to Cogburn at Saratoga in June, for all he hasn’t been at his best in three runs since. That said, he was 6th in this race last season, beaten a length from stall eleven, and looks overpriced with Motorious on that evidence.
The line comes quicker off the bend at Del Mar than it does at Santa Anita, and given he’s drawn in stall three that could be more favourable this time around for Arzak who can sit off the strong pace on the rail and find the gaps when they open up late on, with Joel Rosario back in the saddle for the first time since winning on him at Keeneland last October.
8:21 Del Mar – Longines Breeders’ Cup Distaff (Grade 1) (3yo+ Fillies & Mares) (Main Track) (Dirt) (3yo+) Candied 20/1 0.5pt WIN
The blinkers look a solid application to CANDIED, who suffered a torrid trip when third in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies at Santa Anita last season. The Candy Ride daughter will have been working back to the Distaff this season, and wasn’t disgraced when a four lengths second to Thorpedo Anna at Saratoga in July.
The extra furlong perhaps just saw her run out of gas when beaten a head in the G1 Alabama Stakes, but again she wasn’t given the best of trips and that race has been a successful prep for the Distaff in recent seasons, with Randomised winning it last season before beaten 1/2L in the Distaff, Malathaat had also won it before beaten 1/2L in the Distaff (though won the race a year late), and Songbird was beaten a nose in the Distaff having won the Alabama Stakes en route.
The race is more open than the odds suggest, as Thorpedo Anna has been on the go since March and looked somewhat laboured when winning by a neck at 1/10F last time out, having had a hard race in the G1 Travers when second to Breeders’ Cup Classic hope Fierceness. I just wonder whether the favourite is slightly over the top at this stage, and the fresher legs of Candied could pay dividends particularly given she shaped as though in need of the run at Keeneland last time out.
The last two winners of this race had worn blinkers, and should they sharpen Candied up then she can break better from her inside draw and travel with more fluency, before a likely attempt to swoop around runners on the home turn.
9:01 Del Mar – Longines Breeders’ Cup Turf (Grade 1) (3yo+) (Turf) (3yo+) – Jayarebe 5/1 3pt WIN NAP
Eight of the last ten winners of this were won by the European horses, and they hold a strong card again with Rebel’s Romance, Emily Upjohn, JAYAREBE, Luxembourg and Wingspan. Rebel’s Romance won this in 2022, but six year olds have a terrible record in the race and it’s questionable as to what he beat in a German G1 last time out.
Brian Meehan is no stranger to success in the Breeders’ Cup Turf having won the race with Dangerous Midge in 2010 and a three year old in 2006 with Red Rocks, and he has another progressive three year old in the form of Jayarebe, who has the potential to become on eon the best he’s ever trained.
I’m incredibly fond of this horse, and regular readers may remember he was a 11/1 winner for us in the Feilden Stakes in April. He was below par at Chester though there were excuses, and since then he’s progressed on RPR’s from 114, 115 to latterly 117, where he took the G2 Prix Dollar at Longchamp.
The other two successes came when beating King’s Gambit in the G3 Hampton Court Stakes at Royal Ascot, who’s developed into a smart sort, pulling two lengths clear of Bellum Justum who was beaten a neck by the subsequent St Leger winner at Goodwood before winning a Keeneland G3.
Arguably, his best effort came when second to Economics in a G2 at Deauville, faring best of those to race prominently. Economics took the Irish Champion Stakes next time out, which is possibly the best formline in this contest. As a three year old, he receives handy allowance and is closely matched on official ratings with Rebel’s Romance, who hasn’t been particularly well birthed in stall eleven. He’s 2lbs better off with Emily Upjohn and his pedigree/running style suggests these extra two furlongs can eke out even more improvement. He’s by Zoffany out of a mare who won over 1m4f in listed company, and a half-brother to a winner over 1m4f as well as a duel two mile winner including over hurdles.
Rarely would I ever stake 3pt on one let alone at the Breeders’ Cup, but everything appears to point to him as a serious horse and this race could pan out favourably for him from stall five.
9:41 Del Mar – Longines Breeders’ Cup Classic (Grade 1) (3yo+) (Main Track) (Dirt) (3yo+) – Newgate 25/1 0.5pt EW 3 places
I think the whole of the racing world on our side of the pond, including myself, would love to see City Of Troy win the Breeders’ Cup Classic. It would be a monumental achievement for Coolmore, and one that could shape the breeding of thoroughbreds for the future, the same way in which Galileo did.
That said, at 7/4, he’s terribly short for a horse making a debut on dirt and while everyone seems to believe that he’s bred for the surface, progeny of Justify are yet to make giant strides on dirt, instead developing a preference for turf, for all City Of Troy could be that anomaly.
Bob Baffert has won this race a leading four times, albeit with three year olds, but Into Mischief colt NEWGATE can make a bold bid to reach five Breeders’ Cup Classics for Bob Baffert. Baffert won this with Into Mischief colt Authentic in 2020, and Newgate made an excellent return to the track having been off since his blip in the Dubai World Cup in March. He fared best of those to come from rear, losing in a photo finish to two with the benefit of recent match practice, and Baffert had used that race as a prep with Medina Spirit and Improbable, who both finished 2nd next time out in their respective Classic events.
He’s a unique colt given how precocious he was as a 2yo, making a winning debut here over 5 1/2F before finishing that campaign with a mile win in a G2 around Santa Anita under Frankie Dettori, and his draw in thirteen is no issue given he likes to be held up off a strong gallop, which is often the case in this Classic. The blinkers return, and Baffert will have him primed to within an inch of his life for this. With natural progression from last time out, he can outrun his lofty odds.
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