The Cheltenham Festival is here, but a whole host of short-priced favourites on the Tuesday has not deterred our value man Matty Sutcliffe from boldly taking them on. He has four day one selections at Cheltenham, including a potential 50/1 upset in the Supreme…
1:20 Cheltenham – Michael O’Sullivan Supreme Novices’ Hurdle (Grade 1) (GBB Race) (Class 1) (4yo+) – Sky Lord 50/1 0.5pt EW 3 places
Several of these made all last time out which should ensure the opener will be run at a good clip, and that will play into the hands of the highly respectable Kopek Des Bordes, who was an incredibly impressive winner at the DRF last time out, posting a higher RPR than the likes of Appreciate It and Klassical Dream did when winning the same G1 en-route to Supreme success.
Now equipped with a first time hood, Kopek Des Bordes could be tricky to beat if settling better but I never like it when one’s given headgear after a winning performance, particularly in a grade one and it might be worth taking a flyer at SKY LORD to fill the frame at a bigger price.
The son of Blue Bresil was an impressive winner at Cork on hurdles debut in December, easily pulling four lengths clear of the Willie Mullins trained second who has since bolted up seventeen lengths. He then wasn’t seen to best effect having to make most in a slowly run renewal of the Moscow Flyer, but he was leading two out and had Salvator Mundi not cut across him at the last, he might’ve finished a touch closer to that one who’s 8/1 in places here.
He strikes me as one who requires a strongly run two miles to be seen to best effect and he’ll undoubtedly get this in here for last year’s winning trainer.
2:00 Cheltenham – My Pension Expert Arkle Challenge Trophy Novices’ Chase (Grade 1) (GBB Race) (Class 1) (5yo+) – L’Eau du Sud 9/2 1pt WIN
Taking on both of Mullins’ hotpots in the first two races on day one could prove to be an unwise move, but at the risk of repeating myself, the reasons for chancing L’EAU DU SUD remain the same as they did when tipping him up in the Lucky 15 column (https://gg.co.uk/news/tipping/matty-sutcliffe-cheltenham-tips-my-cheltenham-festival-lucky-15/).
2:40 Cheltenham – Ultima Handicap Chase (Premier Handicap) (GBB Race) (Class 1) (5yo+) Happygolucky 22/1 1.5pt EW 6 places
This is far from a deep renewal of the Ultima, particularly given The Changing Man is pitched in as favourite despite having the Reynoldstown handed to him last time out. It’s certainly nowhere near as competitive as the Corach Rambler/Fastorslow Ultima in 2023, where HAPPYGOLUCKY was far from disgraced in 9th.
The Jeremy gelding isn’t getting any younger at 11, but Vintage Clouds proved in 2021 that age is no barrier when beating Happygolucky in the Ultima, and he can go one better this time around. He returned from a 683 day layoff over an inadequate 2m4f here, jumping two out in contention prior to weakening likely on account of the layoff and the trip.
That was still a promising effort with a view to the Ultima in mind, and the handicapper dropped him a handy 3lbs. Whether he retains all of his ability we’ll have to see, but he’s 7lbs below his 2021 Ultima second, 9lbs below his Aintree G3 handicap success, 11lbs below his third to L’Homme Presse in the G3 Rehearsal Chase and 12lbs below that infamously strong 2023 Ultima. He proved he retained ability when returning from a 595 day layoff, his record over 3m+ reads 12139 and his course form reads 3412095, with reasonable explanations for the latter three lesser efforts.
4:40 Cheltenham – Hallgarten And Novum Wines Juvenile Handicap Hurdle (Registered As Fred Winter) (Premier Hcap) (GBB) (Class 1) (4yo) – Hot Fuss 12/1 1pt EW 6 places (14s available with only 5 places)
No horse is yet to get closer to leading triumph contender East India Dock than HOT FUSS, who was a four lengths second to that one at Wincanton on their respective hurdles debuts.
The winner has since franked the form generously now rated 146, and the third finished second to the smart Gibbs Island next time out in the Victor Ludorum prior to winning well last time out. Hot Fuss made all to win the Sandown Introductory Juvenile hurdle next time out, and wasn’t disgraced in the Coral Finale Juvenile Hurdle at Chepstow in his bid to qualify for this, finishing only three lengths behind the second with the field no match for the 148r Nietzsche Has.
Connections spotted a good opportunity to take a 13k handicap at Southwell on the at to keep him ticking over for this, and a mark of 122 will surely underestimate him in time.
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