Our GG expert Matty Sutcliffe returns for his second Cheltenham ante-post look ahead of the 2024 Festival. This week, he has his eyes trained on the Champion Chase and Ryanair Chase with two massive-priced selections.
Published: 1.00pm 31st January (Odds correct at time of publication)
Champion Chase – Amarillo Sky 66’s generally, 100/1 Betfair (E/W)
This year’s Champion Chase looks a penalty kick for El Fabiolo providing he maintains his credentials in the Grade 1 Dublin Chase this weekend. He obliterated Jonbon in last year’s Arkle and was arguably unlucky in defeat to him at Aintree the previous year, so Jonbon will likely be playing bridesmaid to him once more, and he had a hard enough race after multiple mistakes in the Clarence House last weekend. I’m not entirely sure he’s even guaranteed to finish second, but we are likely playing for third place this year and Amarillo Sky could be the one to pick up the pieces. Regarding those outside the top two in the market, Dinoblue is next in the betting at 10/1 but she’s almost certainly going to the Mares Chase. Then, Edwardstone is in at 20s but he’s become something of an enigma haven’t shaped like he wants 2m4f but he was awfully disappointing over that trip at Kempton last time out.
Boothill is 25s and will likely turn up but had often had his limitations exposed in graded company, and his Grade 2 success in there Wayward Lad was a dreadful renewal. Then, we come into the unknown territory regarding those who’ll turn up but I’m fairly certain we’ll see AMARILLO SKY for the Tizzards.
He was a slow burner over fences as a novice in the 21/22 season, and was beaten 14 lengths off 143 in the Grand Annual so I highly doubt they’ll go for that race again off a 12lb higher mark. However, he improved drastically as a second season chaser last term when beginning the season with a game win over Fugitif over course and distance giving him 9lb, who’s evidently franked that form now rated 26lb higher.
He posted the same RPR of 150 as Bun Doran did in 2018, who was subsequently 3rd to Politologue in the Champion Chase. Amarillo Sky then backed up that win at Newbury off top-weight in the Jim Joel Memorial Trophy by 14 lengths giving 21lb to the second. While that form is nothing to shout about in the context of a Champion Chase, it was a career best effort on RPR’s and the highest winning RPR of that contest in the last ten renewals. He then went to the Clarence House where despite posting a joint-career best of 156, he tweaked a leg and came back lame on his right fore, so we can both draw a line through and upgrade his effort. He was only beaten nine lengths, two lengths behind Energumene who subsequently took the Champion Chase.
We’ve not seen him since then, but he was reported to be back in full work at the back end of last year, and we’ll likely see him make a return in the Game Spirit at Newbury next weekend. If he was to put up a big performance in that, he’ll almost certainly be shorter for the Champion Chase and I think he’ll be a massive player for that third spot, especially with his front running style.
Ryanair Chase – Seddon 66’s generally, 100/1 Betfair (E/W)
The Ryanair Chase looks a weak enough contest this season, and even before Allaho was ruled out of the race, he still didn’t look bombproof at the top of the market. Regarding some of the protagonists, Banbridge now heads the market at a top price of 11/4, but he’s well worth taking on given he desperately needs good-to-soft ground at best, and the Thursday has rarely been run on good enough going in recent seasons.
Then, you’ve got last year’s winner Envoi Allen who certainly warrants respect, but I still get the feeling that we won’t know which Envoi Allen will decide to turn up on the day. Last year’s Turners’ winner Stage Star was bitterly disappointing last time out and will have to bounce back from that, and asides from those three, there’s little else who you could be absolutely sure that will turn up.
Contrary to recent renewals, the race has the making of an outsider sparking a surprise and while I’m aware tipping up 11-year-old who we haven’t seen since the American Grand National in October isn’t the most obvious candidate for the Ryanair, I’ll make a case for John McConnell’s admirable SEDDON.
He was given a late entry for this race and connections have said it’s definitely on the table, along with the likes of the Coral Cup and another tilt towards retaining his Plate Handicap crown. He’s around 14/1 for the latter, and while that is likely the obvious option, if he turned up in this below-par Ryanair, he’d go off a 20/1 shot. He won the Plate over C&D last season fairly easily, travelling strongly throughout and drawing clear after the last, fending off Fugitif with Ben Harvey merely keeping him up to his work. The form has worked out strongly too, Fugitif has improved 8lb since after winning the December Gold Cup, and was only beaten six lengths over 2m in the G1 Clarence House last weekend.
Fugitif is 20/1 in places and while I think he’ll have an outsider’s chance, he’s reliant upon a strongly run race and the only reason why he’s 5x less the price than Seddon is that we definitely know he’s going, but if we were to know they’d both turn up, then Seddon’s price at this current time is mind-blowing. In third that day was Shakem Up’Arry who’s 5lb higher having took there Grade 3 New Year’s Day Handicap over the same C&D, in 4th was Gevrey who’s gone up 8lb since after finishing second in the Irish Grand National behind the subsequent Grade 1 Drinmore winner I Am Maximus before winning the Munster National, and plenty of the rest in behind have since ran creditably in strong company since.
Now form boosts in handicaps aren’t a concrete analysis of chancing one in a Grade 1, but it highlights that it was a strong renewal of that handicap and it was only four seconds slower than the Ryanair two races before. I’m under no illusion that he’d have to put up a career best to win this race, and he’s far from certain to be declared, but that’s the risk with ante-post punting. He’s yet to run a bad race for John McConnell who’s improved him plenty since leaving Harry Whittington, and I’m hoping connections ditch the ‘easier’ option of the Plate Handicap and give him his shot to bow out in a Grade 1, for all it’s a very weak looking renewal.
Matthew Sutcliffe’s Cheltenham Value Punts – Henderson’s Baie Overpriced For Supreme
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