The Dublin Racing Festival is ripe for at least one upset – or so thinks Matty Sutcliffe, who has four tips for the first day of the meeting, including a 66/1 shot.
1:15 Leopardstown – Nathaniel Lacy & Partners Solicitors Novice Hurdle (Grade 1) (5yo+) – Wingmen 25/1 0.5pt EW 3 places
While he has potentially already played his cards, I’m surprised that WINGMEN is available at 25/1 as I didn’t think he was entirely disgraced in the G1 Lawlors of Naas when perhaps paying the price for racing prominently with his stablemate The Yellow Clay, who will no doubt be a force in either the Ballymore or Albert Bartlett at the Cheltenham Festival. The ground was possibly soft enough for him there and he was only headed two out, with Supersundae possibly flattered three lengths ahead by merely picking up the pieces for second.
Wingmen was outpaced over two miles by Country Mile at Cheltenham, but he looked impressive enough over 2m4f at Navan on debut, a route that generally pays to follow regarding a Nathaniel Lacy winner (Dancing City back in fifth in the race last season).
The former point to point winner cost £250,000 prior to showing up well in bumpers, but the step up to 2m6f one slightly better ground could eke out some further improvement from him. His Flemensfirth dam backs that up given she was a winner over three miles, and the Kayf Tara x Flemensfirth dam cross generally tends to produce a stayer.
He’s one of just two entered for Gordon Elliott who won this with Commander Of Fleet in 2018 (previously beaten over two miles), and the yard have generally had one hit the frame in recent seasons here.
Matthew Sutcliffe’s Value Punts – Saturday, 1st February
Though the build up to Cheltenham is firmly underway, there is brilliant racing from Sandown and Musselburgh on ITV this weekend. Matty Sutcliffe has five selections across the cards at value prices for you to side with. 1:25 Sandown – Virgin Bet Daily Price Boosts Novices’ Handicap Hurdle (GBB Race) (Class 3) (4yo+ 0-125) –…
Thu 30 Jan 20251:50 Leopardstown – Gannon’s City Recovery & Recycling Services Juvenile Hurdle (Grade 1) (4yo) – Lady Vega Allen 4/1 1pt WIN
Willie Mullins has won this with Kargese and Gala Marceau the last twice, who both finished second in the G2 Juvenile Hurdle on Boxing Day en-route to success here and it would come as no surprise if LADY VEGA ALLEN follows suit.
The Saint Des Saints mare was closing all the time up the straight on Hello Neighbour in that contest this season, despite going off a relatively unfancied 10/1 under Sean O’Keeffe. The overall time was only 4.04 seconds slower than standard and she was the only one to come from off the pace to challenge the winner.
I’d be confident that Lady Vega Allen can reverse that form with Hello Neighbour, and while we do have the impressive Saint Lucie to worry about, it’s worth noting that Paul Townend is without a win in this race in the last two renewals.
2:25 Leopardstown – Race And Stay At Leopardstown Handicap Hurdle (Listed Race) (4yo+ 0-150) – Rushmount 66/1 0.5pt EW 5 places
The unexposed RUSHMOUNT has only had four races under rules, and he was a neck second to Lecky Watson on hurdles debut with that one now rated 143 over hurdles, and 152 over fences. Shannon Royale was back in third that day who’s now rated 140 in both spheres, and Rushmount went one better next time out when bolting up eight lengths at Thurles to fend off one with form figures of 3231 since now rated 120, with the nine length third going on to win twice now rated 129.
The Shirocco gelding was sent off 10/1 in the G2 Paddy Kehoe Novices’, though struggled in rear on the heavy going and pulled up at the last. He reappeared in the competitive Pertemps Qualifier at Leopardstown on the 28th, and was far from disgraced beaten 23L when weakening only late on presumably needing the run.
Michael O’Sullivan retains confidence for the ride, and if he’s come on for that first run from a 272-day layoff then he looks fairly overpriced given he looks well-handicapped on that earlier form.
4:05 Leopardstown – Ryanair Handicap Chase (Listed Race) (5yo+ 0-150) – Captain’s Nephew 11/1 1pt WIN
CAPTAIN’S NEPHEW caught the eye on seasonal debut in a listed chase at Navan in December, beaten thirteen lengths into seventh when racing on the wrong part of the track over a distance too far. That looked like a possible pipe opener for the 50k G3 at Fairyhouse next time out, though he could only manage fifth despite being well backed into 13/2. I don’t think that was a bad effort as he was wide throughout, and perhaps did too much in front early on to set it up for those in behind.
He came good over fences last season when ridden more prominently in a Clonmel Novices’ Handicap Chase in December, bolting up seven lengths and he wasn’t disgraced next time out when third in a listed handicap chase at Limerick. He got back to winning ways at Fairyhouse in listed company, and while his form toiled off in three runs thereafter, the 2m4f and 2m7f trips clearly didn’t suit.
He might be in the handicappers grip given he’s 9lbs above his last winning mark, but Tiernan Roche negates that to 7lbs and the rider is currently excellent value for his 5lbs claim given he’s 7-26 in the last 14 days. Captain’s Nephew has never gone well in the early part of the season, so with those two runs under his belt he looks primed to run well here for the in-from Rothwell yard (5-26).
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