Matty Sutcliffe has taken aim at day two at Aintree looking to land some huge punts at massive odds. He has five selections for Friday, including three at 50/1 or bigger…
1:45 Aintree – Huyton Asphalt Franny Blennerhassett Memorial Mildmay Novices’ Chase (Grade 1) (GBB Race) (Class 1) (5yo+) – Quai De Bourbon 10/1 1pt EW 3 places
I’m not entirely sure this is the deepest renewal of the Mildmay, but it’s certainly one of the trickiest to whittle down. There’s numerous pieces of Cheltenham form coming into this, with the Jack Richards winner Caldwell Potter, the Ultima second The Changing Man, the staying on Plate fifth Jordans and the Brown’s trio of Dancing City, Stellar Story and QUAI DE BOURBON.
Handstands and Don’t Rightly Know are the two who didn’t contend the Cheltenham Festival, with the former a three time Graded winner this season latterly dispatching of the subsequent Arkle winner Jango Baie putting him 2lbs clear on the official ratings, and the latter comes here on the back of a four-timer, with the latter pair coming in Listed Mares chases.
While it generally pays to race prominently in this contest, there is a plethora of early pace on here with Handstands, Caldwell Potter, Dancing City, The Changing Man and Don’t Rightly Know all having either made all either last time out or on their penultimate run. Stellar Story was held up in the Brown’s but he was outpaced in a slowly run contest which wouldn’t bode well here on similar ground, Jordans was also held up in the Plate but didn’t appear to have many excuses once pulled out for a run, thus it’s Quai De Bourbon who is of the highest interest in here with how the race could unfold.
He was travelling well when unseating four out at Cheltenham in the Brown Advisory in rear, and while it’s tough to say where he would’ve ended up, since his Martin Pipe third I’ve long thought a step up to three miles would suit, and given they’re coming here as opposed to declaring him in the Manifesto suggests the Mullins camp would be in agreement.
He was a touch disappointing when beaten 3/4l on chase debut at Leopardstown at 8/11F, but he stayed on strongly on the good ground to suggest a step up in trip wouldn’t go amiss, and he reversed the form with Chapeau De Soleil next time out when again staying on strongly, looking a dour stayer in the making. I’d expect him to be held up, and with a strong gallop to aim at, he looks a solid each way bet at the prices.
2:20 Aintree – William Hill Handicap Hurdle (Premier Handicap) (Gbb Race) (Class 1) (4yo+) – Beacon Edge 50/1 1pt EW 6 places
I don’t think there’s any glaringly obvious handicap blots in here. Impose Toi was put up 4lbs for his second in the Coral Cup last time out, but only four lengths in behind him was BEACON EDGE who was dropped two pounds for his seven-length seventh, and given he has a 6lbs swing in the weights with that one, he looks wildly overpriced at 50/1 despite the burden of top-weight.
Though in the veteran stage, the former G1 winner has been in excellent form this season, with a comfortable two length win in the G2 West Yorkshire Hurdle on good ground at Wetherby, with the winner of this race last season Kateira four lengths in behind despite losing her chance after walking through the last. He then put a huge effort in when nine lengths behind Lossiemouth in the Hatton’s Grace with Teahupoo only five lengths ahead. He put behind him a poor effort in the G1 Saville’s Hurdle when an eleven length second to Anzadam having lost a shoe, and he wasn’t disgraced again over an inadequate trip in the Red Milles Trial giving weight away to all.
While his winning form tends to come in smaller fields, he was only beaten a short head in a twenty three runner handicap at the Punchestown Festival last season, and he was only beaten three lengths at Galway in August behind the progressive The Wallpark who’s improved 18lbs since. His last two wins came off breaks of seven days and twenty three days so the sharp turnaround is no issue for one who is evidently thriving on his racing. His sole start here saw him beaten a credible thirteen lengths in the G1 Aintree Hurdle, finishing only six lengths behind Luccia giving her 7lbs. The intermediate trip on this good ground should suit him to a tee, and Gordon Elliott won this with Three Musketeers in 2019. A repeat effort of his Coral Cup run should see him at least run into the extended places.
2:55 Aintree – TrustATrader Top Novices’ Hurdle (Grade 1) (GBB Race) (Class 1) (4yo+) – Rubber Ball 50/1 0.5pt EW 3 places
Romeo Coolio is undoubtedly the most talented in here and is entitled to win on all known form, but it’s surprising they haven’t gone up in trip and if the two miles on good ground is once again his undoing, then this race looks ripe for an upset.
Neil King had his stable star Lookaway finish third in this contest last season having won the G2 bumper here a year prior, and this race will always have been on the minds of the same connections of RUBBER BALL. The imposing son of Yorgunnabelucky is progressing well of late, having failed to land a blow earlier in the season when the yard were going through a torrid time of things. He was two lengths second to the progressive Vanderpoel at Huntingdon in January who won by eight lengths next time out (looked to have an issue when a pulled up 6/1 shot in G2 Premier Novices next time out), and the second, Georges Lad, won on the bridle at Doncaster next time out to fend off a subsequent smart winner for Nicky Henderson.
Rubber Ball opened his account over hurdles at the third time of asking when an eleven length winner at Uttoxeter, and improved on that next time out in a competitive C3 novice at Newbury to beat a pair of well regarded Nicholls/Henderson novices. The second was previously 1/2L behind subsequent Betfair Hurdle winner Joyeuse last season, and wasn’t entirely disgraced when sixth in the Supreme last time out when unsuitably held up in rear.
That performance marked Rubber Ball as a potentially smart one going forward, and this quicker ground will certainly suit. While he has something to find on ratings with the protagonists, he remains with stacks of potential with the yard in some form.
4:05 Aintree – Randox Supporting Prostate Cancer UK Topham Handicap Chase (Premier Handicap) (GBB Race) (Class 1) (5yo+) – Excello 25/1 1pt EW 6 places
Nicky Henderson has won the Topham five times, the first in 1990, then in 2006, before racking up a treble in the race between 2013-2015, and it’s rather interesting that Nico De Boinville jumps ship from 2023 second Fantastic Lady to do 10-2 on bottom weight EXCELLO.
Two of his hat trick winners were six year olds, and the firstone Triolo D’Alene was a similar type having been somewhat out of form and was coming off the back of a three mile chase at Sandown like Excello, and Excello himself bounced back to form over fences having spent the season over hurdles when beaten a length at Sandown, jumping impeccably well from the front before failing to stay three miles up the Sandown hill.
He has experience over similar fences from his three chase starts in Auteuil, and he’s always threatened to be a smart horse having won cosily on chase debut for Nicky Henderson when beating Solo six lengths, who although toward the end of his tether, was still second in the Haldon Gold cup the time before.
Excello went off the boil after that, but a subsequent wind operation perhaps tells the story and the fact they’ve kept him over hurdles all season, bumping into some smart sorts in the process (River Don third Ma Shantou, Albert Bartlett third Derryhassen Paddy), suggests this race has been the plan and given he’s thrown in from his revised mark of 146 last season (14lbs lower now), a bold prominent ride can see his return to the winners enclosure.
4:40 Aintree – Oddschecker Sefton Novices’ Hurdle (Grade 1) (GBB Race) (Class 1) (4yo+) – Jupiter Des Mottes 66/1 0.5pt EW 5 places
JUPITER DES MOTTES has a similar profile to Ahoy Señor, who won this race for Lucinda Russell in 2021 at 66/1 after contesting an Ayr novice hurdle over 2m4f. Although Ahoy Señor won his, I don’t think Jupiter Des Mottes lost all that in defeat to the progressive Crest Of Fortune, having been given too cold a ride by Derek Fox and ultimately given too much to do.
Prior to that, he needed all of the 2m4f at Newcastle when gamely getting up late to fend off a subsequent winner now rated 125, suggesting a step up in trip will only bring out further improvement. Patrick Wadge rode that day and retains the ride this time around, for a yard who also won this with Apple Away in 2023 and had the third at 100/1 in 2022.
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