Saturday promises to be a top day of jumps racing across the country. Matty Sutcliffe also aims to make it a profitable one, with four best bets across the Ascot and Haydock cards.
1:40 Ascot – (1m7f152y) BetMGM Mares’ Hurdle (Grade 2) (Registered As The Warfield Mares’ Hurdle) (GBB Race) (Class 1) (4yo+) – Ooh Betty 11/1 1pt WIN
The obvious market leader will be Kargese, who makes her seasonal long awaited seasonal debut having been last seen when winning the G1 Champion Four Year Old Hurdle at Punchestown in May. That said, Willie Mullins hasn’t had a particularly successful time of things across the sea of late, and the large majority of his horses this season have needed a run. While Kargese has achieved plenty more than any of these in her career thus far, she still has to prove she’s able to step up to open company against some hardier types, and on official ratings, she’ll have to improve to justify her short odds.
Aside from Kargese, the other notable factor in there is the distinct lack of pace. All bar OOH BETTY and Brendas Asking will prefer to be held up and the sole guaranteed front-runner is the former, who looks set for an easy lead in front.
The daughter of Westerner only has 6lbs to find with Kargese on the adjusted weights, and posted the same RPR of 131 in class three company last time out that Kargese did when winning her grade one. She’s a progressive sort and her only blip this season came when held up around Newbury in the Gerry Feilden, but either side of that she was given a prominent ride to fend off a subsequent winner at Sandown, and she made most of the running to impressively take a 0-140 at Kempton against the geldings, including two previous winners of the Betfair Hurdle.
Going this way around appears to be the key to her, and if given the soft lead she may have on paper, she’s entitled to spring a surprise.
1:55 Haydock – Sky Bet Supreme Trial Rossington Main Novices’ Hurdle (Grade 2) (GBB Race) (Class 1) (4yo+) – Got A Dream 33/1 0.5pt EW 2 places
This is far from a vintage renewal of this Grade 2 event which can often unearth a Supreme candidate, with Royal Infantry the one who’ll prove tough to beat. The rest should be playing for places in behind, but I do think GOT A DREAM is slightly overpriced dropping back in trip.
The son of Getaway was an eye-catcher in a Warwick bumper last season when faring best of those in rear, and backed that effort under a more positive ride at Huntingdon when a 40/1 winner, a rare bumper winner for Nicky Martin. He somewhat improved on that when beaten eight lengths in the G2 Bumper at the Aintree Festival last year, with five of the six in front of him winning over hurdles since and the other is rated 134 having finished third in the Formby.
He was sent off relatively fancied at 13/2 and 15/2 in his two starts over hurdles this season, but on both occasions he’s shaped as if the 2m3f/2m4f trip hasn’t suited. He looked badly in need of the run when never really travelling at Chepstow in November, but there was plenty to be positive about the way he travelled and jumped at Leicester, before again weakening up the run in.
The majority of his pedigree have shown their best form to come around this trip, and I gather the impression that’s where he’ll be at his best for now as he’s a headstrong sort who wants to get on with things. The form of that last race has produced three subsequent winners which bodes well, and if they pop him out in front then I expect to see a much better showing, and he can fare second best of the lot behind Royal Infantry.
2:50 Ascot – BetMGM Holloway’s Handicap Hurdle (GBB Race) (Class 2) (4yo+) – Kamsinas 8/1 1pt WIN + Moveitlikeminnie 33/1 0.5pt WIN
The prospect of a better racing surface should suit KAMSINAS, whose natural speed was blunted on the soft ground at Haydock last time out, for all he still posted a career best RPR having been beaten three lengths off top-weight, with the race favouring an always prominent pair.
Prior to that, he was a solid winner off 7lbs lower at Aintree when getting the better of Long Draw who’s now rated 12lbs higher, and the form of his victory over Be Aware when giving him 2lbs at Kempton last March has worked out well with that one now 14lbs higher having been beaten half a length in the Greatwood earlier this season.
He returns from a 56-day layoff which is fine given his form fresh reads 1B1311, and given the lack of early pace in here (particularly to the fore of the market), his natural speed will be a major benefit in the closing stages should it turn into a crawl and sprint.
I’d like to have a saver on MOVEITLIKEMINNIE too, whose career best effort over hurdles came here when a two length fourth to Luccia in the Betfair Exchange Trophy last season off 5lbs higher. He was a length behind Altobelli there who’s as short as 7/2 in places for this, and he could be the one to inject some pace into what’s looking like a slowly run affair as mentioned.
He’s failed to completed in three of his last four runs, but he wasn’t out of it at Aintree when running out before the last fence behind one now rated 20lbs higher in that sphere. He’ll have to improve on his nine length fourth here last month, but that was off topweight in a first time visor and the step up in trip should visually suit, with the cheekpieces equipped for the first time over hurdles.
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