Ascot’s Saturday card is the final big jumps meeting prior to Christmas. Matty Sutcliffe has analysed the form and come up with four top tips
2:25 Ascot – Howden Long Walk Hurdle (Grade 1) (GBB Race) (Class 1) (4yo+) – Crambo 11/2 1pt WIN + Beauport 33/1 0.5pt EW 3 places
I think the form of Strong Leader is open to question, and is well worth taking on at the prices. For all he was excellent in the Liverpool Hurdle in April, his main market rivals clearly never ran their race and I often treat Aintree form with caution, as those who ran at Cheltenham prior can often be over the top by April, whereas Strong Leader was fresh since January. He was also made to work by the Pertemps winner Monmiral last time out who’s rated 14lbs inferior, and I just wonder whether it might be worth waiting for Aintree again with him as he appears suited to a flatter track.
Last year’s winner CRAMBO ran flat at Cheltenham and Aintree on his last two starts of the season, but I’m happy to chance that if the yard have him right again, he’ll be tuned for a repeat success. His record fresh reads 11119 with the outlier coming at Cheltenham (still posted an RPR of 150), his record going right handed reads 11111, his course record reads 11, and he won’t be fazed by the better ground.
Some of the yard’s horses aren’t quite right at the moment, but they wouldn’t be running Crambo if he wasn’t near enough peak form and the inform Jonathan Burke keeps the ride.
As I don’t think it’s a strong renewal, and you could poke holes in the majority of the protagonists, I’d like to have a saver on BEAUPORT on the basis of his form going right-handed, which reads 1221521. He posted a career best over fences here in the inaugural Berkshire National when bolting up 31 lengths, and while the 12lbs rise from the handicapper has probably made him hard to place over fences, he was never out of the frame in nine runs over hurdles and an aggressive front-running ride from Sam Twiston-Davies, who rides him for the first time since December 2020, could take some of these by surprise.
3:00 Ascot – Howden Silver Cup Handicap Chase (Premier Handicap) (GBB Race) (Class 1) (4yo+) – Flegmatik 14/1 1pt EW 3 places
The cheek-pieces have been missing on all three of FLEGMATIK’s runs this season, all of which came under Tristan Durrell, but the return of Harry Skelton and the cheek-pieces poses a signal of intent. His record in the aids when going right handed reads UR23142, including a four length third to Victtorino in this race last season and now he has a swing in the weights, he’s entitled to get closer this time around.
His form in January when beating Chianti Classico two lengths at Kempton reads strongly in the context of this one, and now he’s on his lowest mark in handicaps since 2022, hopefully now is the time to catch him.
3:35 Ascot – Ladbrokes Handicap Hurdle (Premier Handicap) (GBB Race) (Class 1) (4yo+) – Black Hawk Eagle 40/1 0.5pt EW 4 places
There’s a big pot in BLACK HAWK EAGLE off a mark of 122, who won a pair of handicaps in comfortable fashion this time last season. The first came at Wincanton when beating Georgie Girl 3/4L giving her 3lbs, who’s won three times since and is now rated 22lbs higher.
He finished the season when pulling up at Kelso, but put that well behind him when reappearing with an excellent third in the Welsh Champion Hurdle, faring best of those racing in midfield. That form has worked out well, with the winner finishing eight lengths behind Sir Gino in the Fighting Fifth and the second, Steel Ally, is rated 9lbs higher having won cosily in a C2 at Haydock last time out. It’s interesting that Kerry Lee sends him here as opposed to the 14:48 at Hereford that Nemean Lion contests, as you’d imagine it would’ve been the other way around.
I thought the small field of five went against him at Huntingdon last time out as he ideally wants to come from being covered up off a good gallop, but he stayed on well in that race to be beaten three lengths by Norman Fletcher, who nearly backed that up at Doncaster next time out when beaten two lengths from a 6lbs higher mark in a competitive C2.
All the rage will be for the Greatwood 2nd/3rd and the unbeaten 4yo of Paul Nicholls, but I’d expect Black Hawk Eagle to have 10lbs in hand off this mark and the aforementioned form suggests he’s certainly underserving of being the rag of the field.
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