Newbury hosts the Group 2 Mill Reef Stakes on Saturday, a race which Matty Sutcliffe breaks down in detail below. He has a HUGE nine value tips in all for the meetings at the weekend from Ayr and Newbury.
Published: 12.56pm Wednesday, 18th September (Odds correct at time of writing)
2:05 Newbury – Dubai Duty Free Autumn Cup Handicap (Class 2) (3yo+ 0-105) – Chillingham 10/1 1pt WIN + Lucander 40/1 0.5pt EW 3 places
CHILLINGHAM fared better than his eventual finishing position/beaten distance suggested in the Ebor Handicap at York last month, having used plenty of gas up to race prominently from stall 18. The absence of his usual hood saw him race far too keenly under Callum Rodriguez, who failed to settle him early on and ultimately let him pull his way to the front. Despite those keen exertions, he had a two length lead at the two pole and was still travelling fairly comfortably, but inevitably weakened and was headed by several after a furlong out.
The Ebor was set up well for the closers, with the 1st-9th all noted to race in ‘midfield’ or ‘rear’, so Chillingham was evidently the proverbial sitting duck out in front. That said, Burdett Road (12th) and Fairbanks (14th), who also raced up with the van, have both come out and fared well since in separate listed events at Chester. Chillingham was only four lengths behind the 4th Epic Poet, who’s come out and franked the form since having gone up 6lbs for taking the Old Borough Cup earlier this month.
We could argue that Chillingham needed the run in the Ebor, and visually that may have been the case, with his record fresh reading 514970, with the win coming in moderate company at Thirsk and failing to come closer than five lengths in the other efforts. His record second time up after a break reads well, with form figures of 1223, and beaten distances of a head, 1/2L and 3/4L. It’s a minor concern that two of those came when a beaten favourite, but they were also coming off top-weight and on the other occasion, he bumped into Prydwen who’s now rated 16lbs higher having remarkably taken the German St Leger last weekend.
I’ve no concern with his handicap mark judged on recent collateral form, and he’s dropped a pound to his lowest mark in handicaps since April 2023. The galloping/flat track at Newbury can give him more time to settle early on and I presume the hood will be reapplied this time, and should he strip fitter for that first run since May then this is a much more realistic opportunity to see him return to the winners enclosure for the in-form Ed Bethell team. William Buick has been provisionally booked for only his second ride for the yard.
The other I’d like to consider is LUCANDER, who hasn’t raced this late on in the year in the UK since 2022 for Ralph Beckett. The seven-year-old gelded son of Footsepsinthesand has collected some valuable prizes in Bahrain for his new connections, and was competitive in some big handicaps last spring with RPR’s of 105,109,105 and 106. He had another spell in Bahrain over the winter, finishing behind Isle Of Jura on four occasions though managed to beat him by a short head once. While it’s folly to translate form from overseas back on these shores, given Isle Of Jura is now rated 119 after Listed and G2 successes, that does give us hope that Lucander is capable of putting up a bold bid off a mark of 99.
Lucander has to put behind him two moderate efforts in June, but he was keen enough when meeting trouble in running at Epsom and was barely put into the Copper Horse Handicap when beaten eight lengths in rear there next time out. George Baker is within the winners enclosure of late and the fact that Lucander is having a rare Autumn outing for him is perhaps a sign of how well he is at home. The yard have an 18% win rate in course handicaps over the last five seasons, with a further 45% place rate further boding well.
Although he’s not won on these shores since May 2022, any of his form from last spring or this winter would put him in contention of going close this weekend.
3:15 Newbury – Dubai Duty Free Mill Reef Stakes (Group 2) (Class 1) (2yo) – Symbol Of Strength (7/1 generally, 8/1 William Hill) 1pt WIN + Star Anthem 40/1 0.5pt EW 3 places
The Mill Reef Stakes has increasingly become a curse for connections in wishing their crack 2yo sprinters will train on to be smart 3yos. Last year’s winner, Array, has yet to be seen on track, Sakheer (2022) has form figures of 7000 this season, Wings Of War (2021) went 0-6 as a 3yo and it took him 15 attempts to win again in Hong Kong, Alkumait (2020) retired after one 3yo effort (7th in Greenham), Pierre Lapin (2019) is currently rated 64 after lately being beaten six lengths in claiming company in Dundalk, Kessar (2018) was retired as a 2yo, and we’d have to go back to 2017 to find the last winner that arguably trained on, as James Garfield won the Greenhamon reappearance but even he failed to win again that season (though was second in the Maurice de Gheest).
In short, you want a precocious type that doesn’t particularly give off the impression they’ll be a smart 3yo. Sires such as Dark Angel, Showcasing, No Nay Never and Kodiac typically produce a precocious sort have all contributed to this contest in the last decade, and there’s one horse in particular who leaps off the page here.
Kodiac colt and February foal SYMBOL OF STRENGTH possesses speed in abundance. Having made his debut in May, the team were clearly keen to get him out early and he showed plenty of promise when a staying on fifth at Beverley. He was put away until July when a cosy winner of an Ayr maiden, before stepping up on that form massively when beaten a length at 80/1 in the Gimcrack at York. Symbol Of Strength travelled strongly throughout there and briefly hit the front under a prominent ride, with the other ‘prominent’ runners finishing 7th, 8th, and 9th. Big Mojo (4th) and Camille Pissarro have come out and franked that form with second places at Doncaster, and Symbol Of Strength proved it was no fluke when leading late on to take the G3 Sirenia Stakes at Kempton earlier this month. Last year, that Kempton contest through up the Gimcrack 1st and 3rd with Array and Seven Questions, and in 2021 Wings Of War was second at Kempton before Mill Reef success. Kodiac colt Kessaar also won that contest en-route to Mill Reef success in 2018, and the 2017 winner Invincible Army was 2nd to James Garfield in the Mill Reef next time out.
Evidently, it’s a tried and tested path to success at Newbury and combine that with his precociously bred page, Symbol Of Strength rates a confident bet at this stage and can reverse that Gimcrack form with Cool Hoof Luke.
The other I like to the rear end of the market is STAR ANTHEM for Clive Cox, who’s won this race twice in the last decade with Wings Of War and Harry Angel. Cox is notoriously effective with the placement of his sprinters, for all the quality of his ammunition has slightly dropped off of late. Star Anthem is one of three January foals in the lineup pre-decs, and made a promising debut in April when second to 11/8F Hawaiian. The form of that race has worked out well with Coventry winner and Prix Morny second Rashabar two lengths in behind, along with Norfolk second and Listed winner Tropical Storm back in 5th.
Star Anthem then bolted by four lengths in a Bath maiden with a subsequent winner (89 RPR) in second, and he was far from disgraced in the Coventry when beaten two lengths into 8th behind Rashabar. The Coventry has worked out extremely well in places with multiple graded winners and places subsequently coming from it, and Star Anthem has evidently been saved for this race.
He got the six furlongs well there so there isn’t any worries about the trip, and it would be a poignant winner given Mill Reef himself is in Star Anthem’s pedigree. While he has a layoff to contend with, Cox will have him primed for this and with any natural progression from that Coventry run then he’s massively overpriced as the outsider at this stage.
Added: 2.06pm Thursday, 19th September (Odds correct at time of writing)
1:30 Newbury – Dubai International Airport World Trophy Stakes (Group 3) (Class 1) (3yo+) – Desperate Hero 9/1 1pt EW 3 places
Generally speaking, this contest has favoured those racing to the fore (8/10) in recent years and that will suit DESPERATE HERO, who ran an excellent race from the front when a three lengths six in the G1 Flying Five Stakes at the Curragh last weekend.
He ran to an RPR only a pound below his best effort there when third home on his side having set up Makarova and Believing to come from off the pace to finish 2nd/3rd to Bradsell, and the fact he’s turned out quickly suggests the team are rearing to strike while the iron’s hot.
He proved he was ready to step up to pattern company when an excellent winner of a 38K prize at Hamilton, bolting up four lengths after clocking a 10.23sec second furlong before kicking clear two out to produce the last two quickest furlongs. Given the stiff nature of Hamilton, visually it as seriously impressive for him to not only sustain that early gallop but quicken up the hill, giving 11lbs to the second who’s since climbed 14lbs, and the 3rd has gone 12lbs having beaten Adaay in Devon two lengths in listed company last month.
A repeat of either that Hamilton effort or run from the Curragh last time out would see him go very close back down in grade, and he arguably should’ve picked up a race in this company at Sandown back in July, for all that form has been franked. He won’t be the only one forcing the pace, but I think that’ll suit as he can idle out in front and the return to Newbury where he’s unbeaten over C&D further bodes well.
2:40 Newbury – Dubai Duty Free Handicap (Class 2) (3yo+ 0-105) – Canoodled 10/1 1pt WIN
In this race, it often pays to follow a last time out winner and Ed Walker is doubly represented by the in-form pair of Fantasy Believer and CANOODLED. The latter gets the vote after her convincing success in a valuable fillies handicap at York last month.
The daughter of Mehmas might’ve lost some speed since her early days, but the middle distance stamina on her damside came strongly into her favour at York, as she was racing over 1m2f for the first time in her 34 race career. She posted a second career best RPR there, just 2lbs behind her 1/2L 4th in listed company at Ascot last October and despite a 5lbs rise, she’s still well handicapped off 87 on that Ascot form having began this term on a mark of 91.
As she’s aged, she generally struggles to find her form in the early parts of the season with eight of her top ten RPR’s since 2023 coming in the months between August-October. Four of her five wins have come between August-October too, so now is likely the time to keep her onside and although she’s not backed up a win before, given she is unexposed over the trip I’m not too concerned in that respect and she can give another good account of herself.
Ed Walker tends to excel with fillies once he’s unlocked the key to them and rarely places them poorly, and this 0-105 looks perfect opportunity to continue her progression over this trip. That York form was franked by the 5th Sound Angela who followed up in listed company on Wednesday, and the form of her Ascot fourth off top weight in July has worked out strongly with the winner (rated 8lbs higher) beaten a neck at Goodwood next time out, and the 2nd/3rd reversed that form with each other when 1st and 2nd in 0-100 over the same C&D next time out.
She can miss the break, which is why they went up in trip with her, but the pace should be an honest one with Involvement, Quietness, Whip Cracker, Laafi and Bolster all likely to be prominent early on, meaning she can drop in and settle early from stall nine with this flat/galloping track to suit.
3:20 Newmarket – Turners Parks Group Ltd Handicap (Class 4) (3yo+ 0-85) – Equiano Springs 1pt WIN SP
EQUIANO SPRINGS took his York record to 0-5 when midfield in an eighteen runner handicap on unfavourable rain softened ground earlier this month, and can finally be back in the winners enclosure at his beloved Newmarket.
He was a bet for the column and the weekend watch on the 20th July, though my concern of topweight likely came to the fore for all that race has worked out well with the winner now rated 8lbs higher, the second rated 9lbs higher and the 4th and 6th both going in since. He wasn’t disgrace over that same C&D when beaten a length off this mark after pulling hard throughout, and the winner was evidently well handicapped having won cosily since before beaten a length in a competitive Sandown handicap, now rated 7lbs higher. The 6th, 7th and 8th have all won since and this has to be the time to catch him.
He early defied a market drift when beaten half a length off 3lbs higher in this race last season, and his overall record in C4 Handicaps over 6F on the Rowley Mile reads 11113, so he’ll much better suited to these conditions. He picked up a handicap on the July course after a 10L beaten at York off a mark of 79 last season and it looks as if this race has been the aim, possibly to let him bow out as a ten year old. Hector Crouch takes his first ride for the yard and is healthy to follow at Newmarket, with an overall £53.04 profit margin to a £1 stake.
3:35 Ayr – Virgin Bet Ayr Gold Cup Handicap (Heritage Handicap) (Class 2) (3yo+) – Pilgrim 14/1 1pt EW + Fivethousandtoone 0.5pt EW 33/1 (5 places generally, 8 with Sky)
Royal Ascot winner PILGRIM has been dealt a plum draw on the nearside rail to race prominently and is a shade overlooked in the market after his 15th/22 at York last month. There was a huge far-side bias that day and three of the top five home were all racing prominently, so Pilgrim was undoubtedly unfavoured by track position in rear and stall 20. He was only beaten five lengths in that competitive race, and may have needed the run from a 61-day break (0-2 fresh prior).
Prior to that, he was called the winner from some way out when travelling effortlessly through the field in the Palace Of Holyrood House Stakes at Ascot before leading well on top at the finish, easily defying an 11lbs rise in the weights for his five lengths win at Hamilton. That Ascot form has worked out typically well with the third now rated 13lbs higher after Listed success in Deauville and other multiple subsequent winners throughout.
A repeat of that Ascot effort would see him go close here from a more favourable draw this time around, and he should strip much fitter from that effort at York with a handy 3lbs 3yo allowance to boot.
Further down the market, FIVETHOUSANDTOONE was a part of the large consortium of horses hindered by their track position in the Stewards’ Cup at Goodwood, and Callum Hutchinson barely moved a muscle until two furlongs out where he eventually made ground to pass a few beaten horses. He’s found life tough off his high handicap mark since taking the 77K all-weather sprint trophy at Newcastle (strong form) in March, but there’s been a glimmer of hope in some subsequent efforts that he has the ability to go close in a contest of this nature.
He was far from disgraced when beaten five lengths in the g2 Duke of York Clipper Stakes in May finishing a length behind subsequent G1 Sprint Cup winner Montassib and half a length behind subsequent multiple G1 runner up Swingalong, and he put an excusable effort in the Wokingham behind him when beaten two lengths by Montassib in the Chipchase at Newcastle, with subsequent G2 Park Stakes winner Kinross in second and Ramazan two lengths behind him in 7th. On that collateral bit of form alone, he’s 7lbs better off with Ramazan which makes him certainly overpriced in here.
Seven furlongs didn’t suit at Ascot in the International, nor did it in the G2 City Of York Stakes last time out but he traded low in running when travelling best of all there two furlongs out and could’ve been called the winner at that stage, but the trip seemingly beat him and he weakened quickly. It’s concerning that he hasn’t won on turf since Goodwood and is admittedly 1-19 in this sphere, but he’s run creditably in this event twice from potentially poor draws and from a place perspective, he’s got more than enough ability in him to at least hit the frame providing he breaks well enough from stall ten.
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