The December meeting at Cheltenham rolls onto day two on Saturday, with Doncaster also live on ITV. Matty Sutcliffe gives you SIX selections to follow for the weekend, including a bonus tip for Newcastle…
11:42 Newcastle – Hawk Ponteland Now Open Conditional Jockeys’ Handicap Hurdle (Class 5) (3yo+ 0-100) – Paddy O’Mahler 1pt WIN
Before we tuck in to the ITV action, I’m keen to play PADDY O’MAHLER in the opener at Newcastle who has to come good off this mark soon. Though he remains a maiden, he’s ran some good races in defeat and his best effort came here in March off 5lbs higher when beaten three lengths by one now rated 13lbs higher. He also ran a huge race from 2lbs out of the weights in a 0-130 at Wetherby in February despite being beaten fourteen lengths, and now the yard has hit some form now may be the time to catch him with first time cheekpieces equipped.
1:50 Cheltenham – Nyetimber December Gold Cup Handicap Chase (Premier Handicap) (GBB Race) (Class 1) (4yo+) – Le Patron 12/1 1pt WIN
I’m happy enough with our ante-post selection Fugitif, though admittedly I would’ve preferred it a touch softer. I was seriously annoyed with myself for disregarding LE PATRON at Newbury last time out on account of his mark being too high, but he couldn’t have been any more impressive there and might just be a better horse around this time of year.
He was a lovely winner for us in the G1 Henry VIII Novices’ last season in desperate ground, and that probably left its mark for the season. That race worked out very well, with the second taking the G2 Towton Novices;’ next time out peaking at a mark of 148 last season, JPR One was back in third and he’s now rated 156, having won twice in G2 company since and faring well in the Tingle Creek last time out, and the Grand Annual winner Unexpected Party was back in 5th.
Prior to that, he bolted up at Sandown to beat Blow Your Wad by ten lengths, and he’s now rated 11lbs higher having won a G2 last season as well. So for all his mark has shot back up to a career high of 153, he has the back form to suggest that may be no issue and given his record in handicap chases (all at/around this trip) now reads 111, he has to be considered. I know he was poor in the Turners over C&D, but as mentioned, I think the Henry VIII left its mark. If he steps up again from that Newbury run where he posted an RPR of 156, he’s more than entitled to fair well here.
2:05 Doncaster – bet365 Handicap Chase (GBB Race) (Class 2) (4yo+ 0-150) – Whistleinthedark 25/1 0.5pt EW 4 places + Erne River 16/1 0.5pt EW 4 places
I think the market has this one wrong. Forward Plan took this race for us last season but he’s 12lbs higher this time around and I would imagine they’ll be working back toward the Coral Trophy that he won from 4lbs lower last season. Similar thinking applies to Does He Know, who’s back on the same mark he won the Grimthorpe on last season. That race is worth significantly more than this, so it would be surprising to see them potentially blow his mark for a repeat success.
The two that look a shade overpriced require some faith, but have no business being rank outsiders in the field. WHISTLEINTHEDARK was beaten four lengths in this race last season from a 12lbs higher mark, and he meets Forward Plan on 13lbs better terms. He’s yet to run a good race since then which is evidently factored in his price, but he’s had the summer off to freshen up and arguably struggled to get competitive off his high mark last season. He’s gone well fresh in the past with his record reading 342132189 after a layoff, so he rates a solid each way contender with this likely to have been the plan.
The other is ERNE RIVER, whose recent record is far from inspiring and has pulled up in four of his last six efforts. The two times he didn’t both came over C&D however, taking a C3 off 2lbs higher in first time cheekpieces and then running an excellent fifth in the Great Yorkshire chase off 5lbs higher when beaten just six lengths. He also has a 13lbs swing in the weights with Forward Plan on that evidence, and with his record here reading 11215, a resurgence to form wouldn’t be out of the question particularly with first time blinkers a likely signal of intent.
2:40 Doncaster – bet365 Doncaster Mares’ Hurdle (Listed Race) (GBB Race) (Class 1) (4yo+) – Fireball Frenzy 66/1 0.5pt EW 2 places
West Balboa is a tricky mare to weigh up and she’s struggled badly in two runs over fences this season. She was a beaten favourite at Aintree when last seen over hurdles in a race she’d won the year before, and her record currently stands at 0-6. She’s entitled to take this on ratings, but she’s of no value at Evens. Gale Mahler has to give her 2lbs and is possibly over the top by now having been on the go since May and being well beaten the last twice, and I just wonder whether it may pay to have a small go on FIREBALL FRENZY to knick a place at lively odds.
Progeny of Kingston Hill are growing on me and they typically love this sounder surface. This one was a £70,000 buy having won a Dromahane P2P in April and while she was poor when pulling up on rules debut at Chepstow, she improved for that effort when a nine-length second to Rula Bula on good ground at Market Rasen last month. She kept on well over 2m4f and the winner has since been beaten a length in Listed company herself.
She’s a half-sister to dour stayers Cyclop and Innisfree Lad, so this step up to three miles under rules can see her in a much better light. She has a chunk to improve, but she’s completely unexposed and there’s enough question marks about the others to take a short price about them.
3:15 Doncaster bet365 Handicap Hurdle (GBB Race) (Class 2) (3yo+) Altobelli 9/2 2pt WIN
I’d be amazed if ALTOBELLI can’t rate higher than 130 over hurdles before likely going chasing next season. The son of Maxios flattered to deceive last season, pulling hard in rear when beaten four lengths by Knickerbockerglory at Ascot on seasonal debut in a race that’s worked out well, and he was sent off just 18/5 when beaten a length by Luccia in the Betfair Trophy next time out. The winner was third to State Man in the Champion Hurdle next time out and rated 13lbs higher, and the second is rated 10lbs higher having finished third in the Lanzarote before reappearing with a win in a C2 at Newbury two weeks ago.
He was disappointing when a 5/1 shot for the Betfair Hurdle at Newbury, but he seemingly wasn’t right there and has had plenty of time to recover. It’s slightly concerning that he’s the only one in here lacking a recent run, but his form fresh reads 11192 including beating Ginny’s Destiny in a bumper, and the only outlier came when out of his depth in the G1 Top Novices’ at Aintree. He could only be 80% fit and still take this on some of the aforementioned formlines.
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