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Matthew Sutcliffe’s Value Punts – Tips for Doncaster and Cheltenham from Our Value Man

Cheltenham and Doncaster both host high class meetings over the weekend. Both are fodder for Matty Sutcliffe’s value microscope, and he has three best bets across both.

Published: 1.27pm, Tuesday, October 22nd (Odds correct at time of writing)

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1:45 Cheltenham – William Hill Betting Done Properly Novices’ Hurdle (GBB Race) (Class 2) (4yo+) – Millforce 4/1 2pt WIN 

Gavin Cromwell’s record at Cheltenham within recent season’s is highly admirable, reading 53 runners, 13 winners and 26 places. 39 wins/places, with a profit margin of £28.69 to a £1 stake. Narrow that down to non-handicap hurdles, and it’s 11-4-7, 11 W/P and £25.75. Cromwell had the well-backed Antrim Coast beaten a neck in this by the smart Butch last season, and he can go one better with MILLFORCE this time around. 

The son of ’10 Derby/Arc winner Workforce got off the mark at the sixth time of asking in Irish Points, having placed four times prior to bolting up 15L at Ballindenisk in May, and transferred that experience to rules when making a winning hurdles debut at Bellewstown in August. He’s a strapping, future chaser and Bellewstown would have been sharp enough for him, which was evident given he didn’t travel or jump with much fluency throughout. Despite that, he showed a willing attitude and a nice turn of foot to gallop clear after the last from the Emmet Mullins favourite, with the third (116r) and fourth (119r) winning nicely since. 

He was easy to back there having drifted from 3/1 to 15/2, which suggests they didn’t expect much on debut, and he improved next time out when beaten a neck by a progressive Willie Mullins horse in a Cork Novice two weeks ago. He was novicey again at times there, already jumping like a chaser, but was slick in the main and displayed a gritty attitude when attempting to go past the eventual winner, beaten only in a head bob. That race was won by Streets Of Doyen in 2020, who followed up in this race next time out. 

He’s a half-brother to Whacker Clan for Henry De Bromhead who won the 3m Chase at this meeting last season, and his big galloping makeup should suit this course. His experience over hurdles will hopefully see him perfect his larger jumps this time around in order not to concede ground to his opponents, but he’s clearly a promising sort and can put his fitness to good use here. 

13:45 William Hill Betting Done Properly Novices’ Hurdle (GBB Race)

2:05 Doncaster – Join Century Racing Club Today Handicap (Class 2) (3yo+ 0-105) – Designer 14/1 0.5pt EW 4 places 

Plenty will have been aimed toward this 25K pot toward the end of the flat season, and several of the protagonists tie in with each on recent form. DESIGNER was second in this race in 2022 off a 6lbs higher mark, posting a joint career best in the process, and her season may have revolved around this contest. 

She’s clearly had issues to miss the majority of the season, particularly given she had her wind tweaked in May. As a result, she was entitled to need the run at York’s Ebor meeting in a race that she’d previously won twice in a row off marks of 87 and 92, but her last run at Haydock was much better and suggested that she may be coming into herself once more. 

Her best form tends to come either side of summer, with all of her four wins coming in either April, August or October, as well as being beaten two lengths in listed company in April/September, and as mentioned, placing in this race in 2022 on heavy ground. She still looked as if another run would sharpen her up last time out, given she was one of the first off the bridle and briefly came with what looked like a winning run before it paid unfavourable to race up the nearside, with the first four home eventual coming far-side/centre, so that effort should put her ripe for this and the 2lbs drop in the weights puts her a pound below her last win at York in a race which has worked out tremendously well. 

The yard’s among the winners and if she puts her best foot forward, she can take this comfortably with soft ground no issue. 

14:05 Join Century Racing Club Today Handicap
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2:40 Doncaster – William Hill Futurity Trophy Stakes (Group 1) (Class 1) (2yo) – Matauri Bay 13/2 1pt WIN 

I’m not sure this is the deepest renewal of the Futurity Stakes we’ve ever seen, but there are a plethora of highly promising colts who could easily make up in classic contenders next season. Wimbledon Hawkeye is 4lbs clear on official ratings with those who obtain one, but he’s already played his hand this season, which began in May, and I just wonder whether one of the more unexposed sorts who’ve only come to light within the last couple of months may have more improvement up their sleeve.

MATAURI BAY fits that suggestion, and this promising son of Lope De Vega can take this step up to G1 company in his stride. His full sister Aunt Pearl was unbeaten as a 2yo, with her season culminating with a win in the G1 Breeders’ Cup Fillies Turf Juvenile, and three of her other winning siblings were all winners over a mile, so this step up in trip on pedigree matches the visual suspicion that Matauri Bay will relish this galloping mile. 

He was a cosy winner on debut on quick ground at Leicester, drawing away clear from two subsequent winners now rated 93 and 103, before stepping up on that from when arguably an unlucky loser in the G3 Solario Stakes at Sandown. He ran a tad green once the pace lifted, and was caught in a pocket on the rail. Had Hector Crouch persisted in following Royal Playwright up the rail as opposed to conceding ground to Field Of Gold by angling out wide and letting him go past, then perhaps the placings between the top two may have been reversed. Matauri Bay clocked the highest finishing speed percentage there (106.30%), further suggesting that the mile trip will be better suited to him this time around. 

The winner backed up the form when beaten two lengths in the Group 1 Prix Jean-Luc Lagadere (5th Also won since), and the fact that Royal Playwright was able to get within a length of Wimbledon Hawkeye next time out suggests that Matauri Bay has nothing to find on collateral form with the ante-post favourite. The Solario Stakes is rarely won by a subsequent winner of the Futurity, but Kameko was second in the race en-route to Futurity success and Devils Point, who was 3rd in the race last season (RPR 92), stepped up to finish second to Ancient Wisdom in the Futurity next time out, so it can be viewed as a tried and tested trial. 

Ralph Beckett has had an excellent season, and has cemented himself a deserved place in the higher echelons of flat trainers. His string continues to be in fine form (21% SR of late), and he boasts an incredible £171.95+ profit from a £1 stake in the month of October.

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