With Kempton Park abandoned, our resident value tipster Matthew Sutcliffe has his fingers crossed that Ffos Las will take place and has a brace of selections for the Welsh action.
12:12 Ffos Las – DragonBet Supporting British Racing Maiden Hurdle (GBB Race) (Class 4) (4yo+) -Lagertha 66/1 0.5pt EW 3 places
I rarely dabble in maidens but with the weather causing havoc and yesterday’s studying all down the drain, perhaps a shift in lens will spark some positivity and LAGERTHA makes some appeal at the odds.
She’ll have to jump much better than she did on hurdles debut at Fontwell in October, but she returns from an 80 day break and hopefully she’s schooled with more promise over the winter. Her bumper form is what entices me, as she was pitched straight into the 59k Goffs UK Spring Bumper at Newbury in March won by Regent’s Stroll, and she was only three length behind the second who’s now rated 121 over hurdles. The fourth won his bumper for Willie Mullins next time out, the fifth is rated 124 over hurdles, the 7th 113, the 8th 112, and even the 10th is rated 115.
Lagertha proved it was no fluke when backing that run up to be beaten five lengths by Anno Power in a mades bumper at Cheltenham in April, so both those aforementioned pieces of form suggest she’s more than capable of being competitive maiden hurdles providing they’ve ironed out any jumping errors.
She’s out of the smart French mare La Grande Dame who was a nine lengths behind Hurricane Fly at Auteuil in 2008 before landing one herself then being beaten a length in G1 company, so she’s bred to have a future under rules and it’s positive that the yards regular rider Gavin Sheehan takes over from Shane Quinlan, with him boasting a 22.58% strike rate for the yard as well as boasting a 25% strike rate in non-handicap course hurdles over the last five seasons.
1:51 Ffos Las – DragonBet Still Best Odds Guaranteed Handicap Hurdle (Div I) (Class 5) (4yo+ 0-105) -The Blueberry One 7/2 2pt WIN
Harry Derham has got his string in fine fettle after failing to even train them during the storm before Christmas, and THE BLUEBERRY ONE makes great appeal off 101 for this handicap debut now stepping up in trip.
All three of his qualifying runs came in competitive C3 affairs at Newbury this time last year and while he was beaten 45L in the first and 33L in the last, the middle effort was full of promise given he was only beaten eight lengths in heavy going. The winner was rated 129, the second has won twice since and is now rated 129 as well, and the fifth is now rated 122, and given he was four lengths ahead of the seventh who was rated 119 and is now rated 125, the opening mark of 101 looks more than workable. The stablemate eight lengths back in ninth is now rated 105 after winning twice at the back end of the season, so the yard will likely know where they stand and any further market support will be telling.
His dam was a multiple winner over 2m5f so this step up in trip should suit on that basis.
1:35 Kempton – (2m4f110y) Coral Racing Club Join For Free Handicap Chase (Class 3) (5yo+ 0-140) – Carbon King 16/1 0.5pt EW 3 places
CARBON KING was well supported from 28s for us at Sandown prior to the meeting being called off last weekend, but this softer/heavier going will play to his strengths and given he’s 2-2 in class three company, he looks worth retaining the support. The original reasoning still stands:
“The prominent pair of Kotmask and Scarface were always suited by their pitch toward the head of affairs, with the winner well backed into 13/8 having placed twice behind the progressive Martator prior. Carbon King crept into the race nicely despite being posted wide throughout, and had he not jumped poorly over the last two, which seemingly knocked the stuffing out of him up the run in, he’d have got plenty closer. That effort should have put him spot on for this, and Adam Wedge takes over for the first time since winning on him at Ffos Las last December.”
2:10 Kempton – Coral ‘Pipped-At-The-Post’ And Win Handicap Chase (GBB Race) (Class 2) (5yo+ 0-145) – Annsam 16/1 0.5pt EW 3 places
A tricky renewal of this three-mile chase sees Venetia Williams’ Hunter Legend top the betting, with the forecast heavy/soft ground to suit more than most and given he receives two stone from Remastered at the head of the weights, it’s easy to envisage him taking this. That said, this is a big step up in class having won a fairly moderate class three at Leicester last time out, so while the low weight is an attractive prospect, I’d be slightly worried he could be out classed in this class two given five of the other seven runners have either won or placed in Listed/Graded company prior.
At the other end of the weights, it may pay to side with the 2023 renewal’s facile winner ANNSAM, who posted a career best RPR of 154 by blowing the field apart some seventeen lengths. That came off a 7lbs higher mark, but he took a class three off top-weight (12-2) off this mark of 142 in April so it’s certainly a workable one, providing they don’t have one eye on the Coral Trophy again, as they wouldn’t want to raise his mark much further now he’s a veteran.
We can probably draw a line through his last two efforts which came over hurdles from a 545 day layoff, as they were likely just to get some match practice back into him. Deep ground would raise a slight eyebrow as he’s yet to race on a heavy surface, but he’s won multiple times on soft going and with the yard in form, he’s worth a play at the prices to regain the winning thread.
3:18 Kempton – Coral Lanzarote Handicap Hurdle (GBB Race) (Class 2) (4yo+) – Santos Blue 25/1 0.5pt EW + Dans Le Vent 25/1 0.5pt EW 5 places
Dan Skelton has won the last two renewals of this race with SP’s of 33/1 and 12/1, and SANTOS BLUE looks overpriced at 25s having shaped as if needing the run at Doncaster earlier last month. He was travelling strongly throughout and jumped the second last marginally in front before a mistake at the last saw him lose momentum, but it was a promising comeback from a 272 day layoff and the winner of the Lanzarote in 2021, Cobblers Dream, won the same race en-route.
Since being beaten two lengths by Crambo on reappearance in the Jewson Handicap at Aintree last season, he’s long threatened to land a big pot given that one’s now rated 23lbs higher though he was able win twice subsequently, with the latter contest in April throwing up three subsequent winners.
He was en eye-catcher in the 71k handicap at Haydock last season when faring second best of those to come from rear/midfield only behind Crambo, shaping as if not quite staying a strongly run three miles and this drop back to a more suitable intermediate trip, where his form reads 12 over (also 111221015 between 2m3f-2m5f in handicaps), should suit.
The ground poses no concerns, he’s tactically versatile, and claimer ridden horses have won six of the last ten renewals.
I’d also like to chance DANS LE VENT, who’s 17lbs lower than when faring the best of those to race in rear in this contest in 2021 and he’s been steadily brought along this season having been off the track for 573 days.
He was a bet for us at Haydock when faring second best of those to come from rear to be beaten nine lengths and he was barely put into the race there, though seemed to cope with the worsen conditions fine.
He had his sights lowered at Chepstow next time out and was again waited with for too long, but now he’s had three runs under his belt this season he should be cherry ripe, and it’s only a matter before he comes good off a mark of 125 as he’s chucked in on older form.
Lanzarote Hurdle Preview – Resurgent Jipcot Can Relish Big Field Handicap Test
Though possibly in doubt due to the weather, the Lanzarote Hurdle has attracted a 20-strong field for a hugely competitive handicap on Saturday. With Kempton attempting to beat the frost, Joe Napier previews the race with his verdict. Dan Skelton claimed a number of big handicap prizes last season, but Jay Jay Reilly was one…
Thu 09 Jan 20253:55 Kempton – Coral ‘We’re Here For It’ Handicap Hurdle (Challenger Two Mile Hurdle Series Qualifier) (Class 3) (4yo+ 0-130) – Spirits Bay 9/2 2pt WIN
SPIRITS BAY was a 10/1 bet for the column last weekend before Sandown was called off, and the market support (into 4/1) was both telling and a tad frustrating! I’m happy to keep the faith this time around those and the original reasoning still stands:
“Spirits Bay’s record right handed reads 1211 and he was an eye-catcher in a competitive 0-140 at Cheltenham last month won by the runaway winner Mirabad. Spirits came right from rear to jump the last run second, but understandably weakened up the run in to finish a solid fifth, two lengths behind the third. He still remains very much unexposed in handicaps and if he strips fitter for that last effort he’ll be bang there”.
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