Fresh from a 3pt winner on New Year’s Day at Cheltenham, our value tipster Matthew Sutcliffe attempts to continue the excellent start to 2025 and has FOUR selections for Sandown’s card on Saturday 4th January.
1:50 Sandown – Read Nicky Henderson’s Weekly Unibet Blog Handicap Chase (GBB Race) (Class 2) (5yo+ 0-145) – Carbon King 28/1 1pt EW 3 places
I wouldn’t call this a vintage 0-145 class two handicap. The top weight, Unexpected Party, is still 7lbs above his Grand Annual success, Etalon is another of the Skelton’s potentially minding his mark, though his form this season has been woeful compared to how progressive he was over fences this time last season. Hubrisko was beaten thirty lengths on his hurdles debut for Harry Derham in November since joining the yard from Willie Mullins and while his mark of 134 looks workable, I’d imagine he might need a bit more time, not to mention he developed much later in the season.
To my eye, there’s effectively three to the head of the weights who we can rule out, narrowing the field down to five with the next in there off 127. At first glance, I’d have expected this 0-145 to be a touch too competitive for Carbon King but given how weak it looks I’m happy to play him after his promising effort at Ascot in similar company last time out.
The prominent pair of Kotmask and Scarface were always suited by their pitch toward the head of affairs, with the winner well backed into 13/8 having placed twice behind the progressive Martator prior. Carbon King crept into the race nicely despite being posted wide throughout, and had he not jumped poorly over the last two, which seemingly knocked the stuffing out of him up the run in, he’d have got plenty closer.
That effort should have put him spot on for this, and Adam Wedge takes over for the first time since winning on him at Ffos Las last December. The likes of Jupiter Du Gite and Triple Trade will likely make it a good test, which will play into the hands of Carbon King who needs to come from off the pace to be seen to best effect.
2:25 Sandown – Try Unibet’s New Smartview Racecards Mares’ Hurdle (Listed Race) (GBB Race) (Class 1) (4yo+) – Good Luck Charm 10/1 1pt WIN
Della Casa Lunga is 9lbs clear of the field on ratings so it comes as no surprise to see her installed as favourite, but I’d be wary of the drop back in trip from three miles given how well she saw it out at Kempton when making all there just a week, and she’s likely to face competition for the lead this time from The Lord Maid and possibly Dameofthecotswolds.
Only 9lbs separate the other five, and while Good Luck Charm is worse off at the weights, she’s a mare that I’ve followed closely since her fourth in the Lanzarote at Kempton last January, where she ran a huge race to be beaten seven lengths faring the best of those ridden prominently. That was a career best RPR of 119 at the time, but she matched that when beaten four lengths in the G3 Heroes handicap here in February with the more patient tactics perhaps not showing her in a good light.
She went off the boil two starts later and wasn’t seen until early December, where she ran away with a C&D handicap back against her own sex, given her rider Chad Bament just his second win under rules. She’ll need to improve again to be winning listed contests, but possibly not too much to win this one and given she posted a joint career best RPR on her first run back of the season, she’s entitled to improve once more and rate higher yet.
Her record in mares’ hurdles when going right handed reads 1111 (4-4) and now generally seems to be when she’s at her peak, with her record in the months of November-February over hurdles reading 12113441 as opposed to 086. She’s a sound jumper with a game attitude, and the rare booking of Sean Bowen can only be a positive, with his all time record for the yard reading 15-4-2 (26.67%).
3:00 Sandown – Unibet Veterans’ Handicap Chase (2024 Veterans’ Chase Series Final) (Class 2) (10yo+) -Empire Steel 13/2 2pt WIN
Sandy Thomson rarely makes the long trip down south to Sandown having sent just five runners there throughout his training career, and his record in course handicaps chases reads 2-1-1. While he’s had a somewhat quiet time of things of late, January tends to be when his string bounce in to action, with a 21.35% all time strike rate (best month) and a £65.79+ to a £1 stake profit margin.
Empire Steel is his sole runner on the card along with Ryan Manias, and he looks to have an excellent chance off his last winning mark in only this second attempt in Veteran’s company. The Aizavoski gelding made his seasonal debut in a 0-150 Veterans’ Chase at Haydock last month, shaping as if needing the outing when beaten ten lengths off top weight. That was a promising return as he kept on having initially weakened, and second backed the form up when beaten a length in the Rowland Meyrick next time out.
He came on from last year’s reappearance when going one better at Kelso off this mark fending off the three time subsequent winner Nells Son, so it’s plausible to suggest that run should have be primed for this one particularly with the move away from top weight a bonus.
It should also be noted that Sandy Thomson’s sole winner at Sandown came in this race in 2021 with Seeyouatmidnight under Ryan Mania, who also made his seasonal debut in the same contest at Haydock as Empire Steel did last month.
3:35 Sandown – Free Bet With Unibet’s Betbuilder Rebound Handicap Hurdle (Challenger 2m Hurdle Series Qualifier) (Class 3) (4yo+ 0-140) – Spirits Bay 10/1 1pt WIN
Spirits Bay’s record right handed reads 1211 and he was an eye-catcher in a competitive 0-140 at Cheltenham last month won by the runaway winner Mirabad. Spirits came right from rear to jump the last run second, but understandably weakened up the run in to finish a solid fifth, two lengths behind the third.
He still remains very much an unexposed sort in handicaps and if he strips fitter for that last effort, he’ll be bang there.
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