Racing from Haydock and Ascot has come under the watchful eye of Matty Sutcliffe on Saturday. He has four value bets across the ITV cards, including a two-point Betfair Chase tip.
1:15 Haydock – Betfair Racing Podcasts Handicap Hurdle (GBB Race) (Class 2) (4yo+) – Dans Le Vent 50/1 0.5pt EW 4 places
I was hoping DANS LE VENT would be declared for the three-miler that he won a couple seasons ago, but with further rain forecast until Saturday, an extra surplus of stamina may favour him over this shorter distance particularly given N’Golo, Steel Ally and Josh The Boss are all likely to make it a strong test from the front.
I’ve been waiting to back this horse for some time now, since falling at the first when 12/1 in a G3 Handicap at the Aintree Festival in 2022. He’s only been seen four times since, but three of those were over fences which were seemingly a last resort at the age of nine turning ten, though he wasn’t entirely disgraced. He was third over an inadequate two miles at Hereford around a track sharp enough, then he was still going well when unseating Isabel Williams in a 21k novices handicap chase at Uttoxeter last year.
He confirmed his welfare when returning from a 573-day layoff over an inadequate two miles in a handicap hurdle at Chepstow last month, staying on from rear to finish fourth of seven. That will have brought him on physically, and he’s seriously well handicapped on older form. He took the G3 Stayers’ Handicap Hurdle later on the card off 135 in 2021, and was rarely disgraced off 142 in four runs since in graded company, including a seven length fourth in the G2 Relkeel Hurdle. Now on a mark of 125, if he retains any of that old ability and is primed for this then he can creep through the race in rear and pick them off late.
His record in November reads 1621, and Evan Williams has won this twice in the last decade.
2:30 Haydock – Betfair Stayers’ Handicap Hurdle (Premier Handicap) (GBB Race) (Class 1) (4yo+) – Phantomofthepoints 25/1 0.5pt EW 5 places
PHANTOMOFTHEPOINTS was a bet for the column last week when unfortunately a non runner at Cheltenham, and though a self certificate was the reason, I’d imagine the ground played a factor for all I thought the surface would’ve been fine. But as I mentioned there, it is interesting they’ve gone for this and I do think the trip can bring out further improvement.
I won’t reiterate the reasoning from last week as it largely remains the same, though the large majority was on the basis of him stepping back up in trip and David Pipe won this with Main Pipe in 2020, who’d predominantly spent his career over two miles prior to winning this. The yard remains in excellent form, and he’s got scope from 124 judged on numerous pieces of collateral form documented in last week’s column.
3:05 Haydock – Betfair Chase (Grade 1) (Registered As The Lancashire Chase) (GBB Race) (Class 1) (5yo+) – Royale Pagaille 9/2 2pt WIN
Frustratingly, our ante-post bet L’Homme Presse wasn’t confirmed for this, but that’s only heightened interest in the yard’s ROYALE PAGAILLE.
I wrote in the ante-post column that “This will be Royal Pagaille’s Gold Cup, and he is similar in that respect to Bristol De Mai. His record at Haydock reads 11211, his seasonal debut record reads 21221 and he’ll be contesting his third Betfair Chase, having finished second in it in 2021 behind A Plus Tard when sustaining a wound to his right hind pastern.”
With the ground seemingly set to be on the soft side, now surely has to be the time to catch him and the general 9/2 looks somewhat of a gift. Grey Dawning is terribly priced despite his potential as he falls short of the rating generally required to win this (160-174) and horses coming out of novice company tend to struggle in this contest, while Ahoy Senor tends to find his form later in the season. They’re the two that I’d be most worried about but for those aforementioned reasons, Royale Pagaille looks the standout bet.
3:20 Ascot – Lay & Wheeler Hurst Park Handicap Chase (GBB Race) (Class 2) (4yo+) – Frere d’Armes 8/1 1.5pt EW 3 places
With all due respect, I’d have preferred a more experienced jockey on FRERE D’ARMES but if he can’t go close here off effectively a mark of 118 then I’m unsure if he’ll win again.
He was beaten half a length off 8lbs higher (10lbs factoring in claim’s) by Boothill in this race last season and while he was receiving chunks of weight from him, Boothill has developed into somewhat of a genuine Graded chaser and there’s nothing of that calibre in here.
Frere d’Armes is fitter this time around having has three races already this season and two under Heidi Palin, who gave him a considerable ride in rear in the G3 Byrne Handicap over C&D earlier this month when 3lbs out of the handicap, but he has a swing in the weights with Martator this time around and if they have him handier this time around, I’d imagine he’ll fare much closer.
With 52k available to the winner, I’d be shocked if Dan Skelton isn’t trying here given it’s a very winnable contest and he’s come out of the blocks strongly in the trainers title this season.
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