The final weekend before the Cheltenham Festival may be quieter for most punters, but Matty Sutcliffe has kept his thinking cap on. He has four best bets across the ITV cards on Saturday at each-way prices.
1:50 Sandown – George’s Lad 6/1 2pt WIN
Nine of the last ten winners of this valuable novices handicap had landed this on their handicap debut, with eight of those winning already and four of those winning last time out. Unfortunately, we can only discount O The Jury and Illegal d’Ainay who’ve already played their hands, but of the ve who won last time out, the progressive GEORGE’S LAD makes the most appeal at the prices.
The Order Of St George gelding came on from his hurdles debut at Exeter when a staying on second to Miami Magic at Kempton next time out over two miles, with that one now rated 138 having placed second twice in grade two company since. He was again second when staying on to be beaten a length by Vanderpoel at Huntingdon, who bolted up next time out now rated 128, and was sent off only 6/1 for a Kelso G2 though failed to give his running. Rubber Ball was back in third there and he’s won twice in good style since now rated 126, with the three pulling twelve lengths clear of the fourth.
George’s Lad was eventually stepped up in trip to 2m3f at Doncaster and won in a common canter under Harry Cobden, who quite literally didn’t move a muscle to draw three lengths clear from Calimystic in second, who franked the form next time out with a seven length win now rated 118. The winner of last year’s race was Champagne Twist, who also came from that Doncaster contest, and this keen going gelding will be suited down to the ground in a race of this nature now stepping marginally up in trip on a stiffer track.
2:05 Hereford – Mackenberg 13/2 1pt WIN
MACKENBERG was around 20 lengths clear of the eventual winner when unseating at the last in this race last season having jinked violently left, and given he’s 9lbs lower this time around, he looks to have a strong chance providing any mishaps.
Some faith is required given he pulled up at Wetherby last time out, but prior to that he ran a solid race off top weight in a 0-135 at Doncaster beat ten length into third, and the cheek-pieces are now equipped to hopefully keep him focussed throughout. This small field will play into his strengths, as his record in fields of ve or less reads 12111113.
2:25 Sandown – Spirits Bay 10/1 1.5pt EW 5 places
Nigel Twiston-Davies has only sent two runners to this contest in the last nine renewals and both of them won, with Flying Angel (9/1) in 2016 and Mr Antolini (20/1) in 2018. That brings Big Ginge and SPIRITS BAY immediately into contention, and given prominent racers generally tend to struggle in here, the former can set it up for the latter.
Spirits Bay was a number of eye-catchers in the Catesby Estates Handicap Hurdle behind the runaway winner Mirabad at Cheltenham in November, travelling rapidly into contention two out from rear and becoming the first to stay on out of the pack before weakening into fifth on account of that early move. He received the highest RaceIQ jumping score with an index of 8.4/10, finishing first in the lengths gained department with 3.66L over the field and hitting the highest top speed with 38.77mph.
He folded tamely at Haydock next time out when looking the likely winner, for all he got to the front far too soon under Jordan Nailor, but he posted a career best effort next time out when beaten ve lengths behind Constitution Hill in the G2 Unibet Hurdle having chartered a wide course throughout. He was the lowest rated runner in the field, but he was only shaken up before the last and jumped it upside the 146 rated Brentford Hope, staying on to finish two lengths behind that one and three lengths ahead of the 146 rated Fils d’Oudaries. HIs jumping was again impressive according to the RaceIQ data, again posting a 8.4/10 jumping index with the winner posting an 8.6/10, finishing second in the length gained jumping department and posting the quickest top speed in the contest, for all the winner was hardly out of third gear.
The data backs up my visual suspicion that Spirit’s Bay is desperate for a strongly run contest where he can travel smoothly into it from rear, requiring one change of gear late on and that should suit him perfectly here.
His record right handed reads 1211 and he fared well on his sole course start. Sam Twiston-Davies takes the ride for the first time, and this could potentially have been the plan all season.
2:45 Wolverhampton – Whip Cracker 7/1 1pt WIN
I can only apologise for a flat selection (unless it wins…) with Cheltenham around the corner, but as it’s an ITV race I’m sure you, and the editors, will let me off. I’ve long thought WHIP CRACKER has the potential to be a smart type and the return to the all-weather for the first time since bolting up six lengths at Chelmsford in October can see him back in the winners’ enclosure.
He was second on seasonal debut last term in the Feilden Stakes to our selection that day Jayarebe, who finished the year rated 117 though sadly in a fatal manner. The third that day is now rated 104 having won next time out, and in fourth was no other than Ambiente Friendly, who finished second to City Of Troy in the Derby having won the trial at Lingfield on his penultimate start.
Whip Cracker is winless since, but a subsequent gelding operation saw him post two career best RPR’s of 102 on heavy ground behind some confirmed mudlarks, and the Newbury form was franked healthily with Bolster winning twice since now rated 111.
He has form figures of 223 when fresh and the return to a sharp, left handed track can suit for the in-form Richard Hughes.
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