The weekend’s racing looks fiercely competitive and Matty Sutcliffe aims to land you the best profit possible with four selections.
1:50 Newbury – William Hill Top Price Guarantee Handicap Hurdle (Challenger Stayers’ Hurdle Series Qualifier) (Class 3) (4yo+ 0-135) – Kruger Park 7/1 1pt WIN
The infamous Paul Nicholls January dry spell appears to be clearing up, with three winners returning from his last ten runners including a further four places, so it may prove to chance KRUGER PARK and forgive him for throwing his race away at Uttoxeter last time out.
The Kapgarde gelding is far from straight forward, but the innate talent is evidently there as demonstrated when travelling all over the field at Uttoxeter, going clear by several lengths two out before wandering around and losing the race within the last few strides. I think Freddie Gingell would’ve learnt plenty more about him that day, such as not hitting the front too soon and if he holds on to him for a lot longer off what looks to be a strong gallop, he can pounce late on.
It was a similar case when he last won at Newbury in March by eight lengths, as he caught they eye travelling with ease three out alongside Il Va De Soi but as soon as he hit the front he began to wander and pull himself up. Gingell was clever in taking him to the rail to keep him straight a true, and he won cosily by eight lengths. The second has franked the form well since, now rated 18lbs higher with form figures of 1152, and they pulled over thirty lengths clear of the third.
The fact he’s been kept fresh since his last run and he returns back here to the scene of his last win is likely a signal of intent, and despite his quirks, Gingell’s record on him reads 123. The winner of his last race also franked the form well having finished off strongly to be beaten a length in a competitive 26k contest at Haydock now rated 6lbs higher, and given he improved with racing last season, Kruger Park should be primed for this off a handy low weight with the yard back in some form.
3:00 Newbury – William Hill Best Odds Guaranteed Game Spirit Chase (Grade 2) (Gbb Race) (Class 1) (5yo+) – JPR One 18/1 1pt EW 2 places
I’m under no illusion that Sir Gino may be the second coming, but we shouldn’t underestimate what a stiff task for a novice on his second start over fences this will be. The last novice to compete in contest was Altior in 2017 and Sir Gino would certainly have to be near his level at this stage to emulate that success, and it’s worth noting that the only other novice to have ran in the Game Spirit in the last ten years, Dodging Bullets, was beaten at 2/1 before going on to Clarence House/Champion Chase success the following year. My only other concern about Sir Gino is that while visually it was an incredible performance, he effectively beat a horse running a mile below his optimal trip, who absolutely clattered the last. He’ll face a completely different calibre of opponents this time around, who all possess much more natural speed than a Ballyburn over fences, and that’s why it’s worth exploring an each-way angle.
JPR ONE looks wildly underestimated at the rear end of the market. His only blot on his copybook over fences was when not seen to best at Cheltenham in the Arkle, but prior to that he was a comfortable winner on chase debut, he would’ve won the Arkle Trial prior to not unseating at the last, he a respectable fourth in unfavourable ground in the Henry VIII Novices’ Chase, and then he was electric in the Lightning Novices’ Chase at Lingfield when beating Matata a shade cosily given he idled in front, and he looks certainly overpriced with that one on that basis.
He then posted a career best on seasonal debut when landing the Haldon Gold Cup off top weight to easily see off the subsequent G2 Peterborough Chase winner in Djelo, and he ran right up to that form, if not bettered it, when beaten ten lengths by Jonbon at Sandown when not quite staying on up the hill. Jonbon was at his very best that day having come on for the run when beating Boothill and Edwardstone a couple lengths, and given Edwardstone was ten lengths behind Jonbon last time out at the winners peak, JPR One again looks overpriced with that one too.
The key to JPR One is a flat track where he can gallop and sit in behind the leaders, and with both Matata and Edwardstone likely to force a strong pace, this Newbury test could suit JPR One down to the ground. The Tizzard team have minded him carefully this season, and given his record fresh reads 11171, a short break will have him ripe for this contest and he can be the one to follow Sir Gino home, or even take advantage if this company is hot enough for him.
3:35 Newbury – William Hill Hurdle (Premier Handicap) (GBB Race) (Class 1) (4yo+) – Joyeuse 5/1 1.5pt WIN + King William Rufus 40/1 0.5pt EW 5 places
I’m playing this doubly pronged with a pair book ending the market, and I’ll begin with the mare JOYEUSE who can land successive renewals of this competitive handicap for Nicky Henderson and JP McManus. They took it with another 6yo in Iberico Lord last season on his third start of the season, and a mark of 123 will surely underestimate this relation of Epatante in time.
Joyeuse ran a race full of promise on seasonal debut in the Introductory Hurdler at Ascot, returning from a 319 day break after a win hat Taunton with the next three home all franking the form since. She was a staying on third to Celtic Dino who wasn’t entirely disgraced when beaten eleven lengths in the Challow behind Potters Charm next time out, finishing four lengths behind Good And Clever who was third a G1 at the DRF next time out. Wade Out was in second that day and won next time out, but Joyeuse took her form to a new level when a staying on second in a competitive Mares Handicap Hurdle at Cheltenham, where she might’ve won it had Nico found the gaps a touch earlier. She will have learn plenty from the hustle and bustle of a big handicap like that, and it was a good bit of form given the winner was completing a six timer for Gordon Elliott, and the third backed it up when beating Kargese in a G2 Mares race at Ascot.
She’s entirely unexposed in handicaps but is only going the right way, and this drop back in trip off a strong gallop can see her strike late.
The other I’d like to chance is a touch on the wayward side, but Chris Gordon won this in 2023 with Aucunrisque and he’s triply represented in here with that one, alongside Our Champ and KING WILLIAM RUFUS. It’s the latter who I’m most intrigued in though, not least because he carries absolutely no weight on what could be soft enough ground.
He has to bounce back from a below par effort at Chepstow when a beaten 5/4fF, but I’d say that race came far too soon after bolting up six lengths in an eighteen runner field at Ascot just a week earlier, and we can always forgive a horse for one bad run. On that Ascot run, it was the quickest time on the card closest to standard and visually it looked impressive. He led three out and none of those in behind could land a blow, as he won eased down under Freddie Gordon after a lovely jump at the last. The form might not be all the special, but the fourth was only beaten four lengths behind Altobelli in a competitive C2 Handicap at Ascot next time out.
The key piece of form that strikes him as overprice in here was his second at Kempton, where he was staying on to be beaten four lengths by Kabral Du Mathan, who’s now rated 16lbs higher having been beaten a neck in a G3 Handicap at Ascot, before beaten two length behind Secret Squirrel in an arguably stronger race at Windsor. That brings King William Rufus into play with the likes of Secret Squirrel, Navajo Indy and Fiercely Proud toward the head of affairs, and if a 43 day break has done him good then on the balance of his Ascot/Kempton efforts, he’s entitled to outrun his lofty odds.
It’s worth noting he has C&D form such as finishing three length behind Jeriko Du Reponet here in 2023 who’s rated 134 over hurdles, so while he might lack some of the potential of these, I’d say this mark of 122, with Charlie Maggs taking off 5lbs, makes him a lively outside contender.
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