The final day of the Craven meeting takes place at Newmarket on Thursday. Here, our value man Matty Sutcliffe gives his three top tips on the card.
2:25 Newmarket – Never Ordinary At bet365 Handicap (Class 4) (3yo 0-85) – Happy Banner 1pt WIN SP
Five of the seven winners of this contest were gelded after their two year old season which brings Canvas, Watching Stars and HAPPY BANNER into contention, and it’s the latter who gets the nod with Ryan Moore booked for a rare enough outing for the yard.
Walker and Moore have a respectable 22.22% strike rate when teaming up together, and Ed Walker has been profitable to follow in handicaps on the Rowley Mile over the last five seasons, with his record reading 45-9-19, returning a profit of £28.33 to a £1 stake. The son of Starspangledbanner showed little in his first two starts when held up in rear, but he was well backed at Kempton in December when making all to bet both of his market rivals in a convincing manner, drawing away in the manner of one who’d be suited to a mile.
He’s out of a High Chaparral mare from a family predominantly of milers, and this £230,000 Goffs Orby Book 1 purchase can make his mark in handicaps over this trip. The market is yet to align itself for this contest at the time of writing, but I’d expect him to open up around the 7/1 mark.
3:00 Newmarket – Japan Racing Association Handicap (Class 2) (4yo+ 0-100) – Mythical Guest 20/1 0.5pt EW 4 places
George Margason is another profitable trainer to follow on the Rowley Mile with his record here in handicaps over the last five seasons reading 15-3-4 (£22.00), and course winner MYTHICAL GUEST will be suited to this drop back in trip.
The Make Believe gelding won on his seasonal debut last term when a comfortable four length winner, with the second winning two starts later (now rated 11lbs higher), and the fourth, sixth and eighth all winning next time out.
Two starts later, he was a convincing winner of a class three 0-95 here over a mile and two furlongs, with the second franking the form by being beaten a length in the Royal Hunt Cup next time out before winning a 36k C2 at Doncaster now rated 6lbs higher.
He proved the drop back in trip to a mile was no issue when beaten half a length on the July Course next time out by the 8/15F, who’s franked the form well since with form figures of 3726, beaten only a combined distance of six lengths in those efforts now rated 13lbs higher. The third that day was won twice since, herself now rated 9lbs higher (14lbs factoring in the 5lbs claim that day), and the fifth also won cosily next time out albeit on the all-weather.
His form slightly tailed off since in some similar events, but he’s 2lbs below that July course second and he’s strongly handicapped on that form. The drop back to a mile on some softer going shouldn’t inconvenient him, nor should being reunited with Callum Shepherd who won here on him last May.
4:10 Newmarket – Aston Martin Handicap (Class 3) (4yo+ 0-95) – Spring Bloom 10/1 1pt EW 3 places
SPRING BLOOM has respectable form figures of 27214641144 on both courses here, and has finished second and sixth in the last two events of this contest off marks of 83, so he has to be considered off a 6lbs lower mark this time around.
He’s just 2lbs above his last winning mark which came on the July course under a four pound penalty when giving 6lbs to the eld, and his four subsequent starts saw him run close on each occasions including twice here.
The booking of Silvestre De Sousa catches the eye as he’s 2/8 for the yard and 1-1 for them in the last month, with Eddery already off the mark for the turf season.
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