Matthew Sutcliffe is looking to end Royal Ascot on a winning note and our value tipster has FIVE selections for day five of the meeting on Saturday 21st June, 2025. Check out his best bets here, which includes an eye-catching 50/1 pick in the Queen Elizabeth II Jubilee Stakes…
3:05 Ascot – Hardwicke Stakes (Group 2) (Class 1) (4yo+) – Candleford 25/1 1pt EW 3 places
CANDLEFORD has a strong record when fresh, having won a Windsor novice from a 65-day break, then landing the Duke of Edinburgh Handicap here in 2022 by six lengths from a 219-day break. He was winless that season thereafter, then he was beaten three lengths in listed company from a 223-day break, and then landed a listed contest at the Curragh last season from a 239-day break.
We haven’t seen him since his five lengths fourth to Isle Of Jura in this contest last term, but that looked a deeper renewal than this and given he was only two lengths behind Goliath, who was a further five lengths ahead of Rebel’s Romance when winning the King George here next time out, Candleford is wildly overpriced with the favourite.
The angle of sending him here first time out instead bodes well as does the firm surface which he revels on.
3:40 Ascot – Queen Elizabeth II Jubilee Stakes (Group 1) (Class 1) (4yo+) – Grand Grey 50/1 0.5pt EW 4 places
Despite what looks to be a belting renewal of this contest, the race has made a habit of throwing up a surprise with the last three winners returning at an SP of 14/1, 80/1 and 33/1 and the outsider GRAND GREY has a big chance if breaking on terms.
The Havana Grey colt ran a career best on yard debut for Kevin Ryan in the Abernant Stakes when racing keenly throughout in rear, and having not got the gap early enough, he just failed to get up from the well backed Sajir who bumped into Topgear next time out, who’s an 8/1 shot in here.
The third, Lethal Levi, franked that form when beaten a neck in the Greenlands Stakes next time out, where Grand Grey lost several lengths at the start. That said, he still managed to attach on the main body after two furlongs but while the damage was already done, he was only beaten four lengths when again short of racing room and hampered late on.
A race of this nature will suit him to a tee by travelling strongly in rear providing he breaks on terms and the gaps come, and he looks a shade overpriced for last years winning trainer, and Jamie Spencer who won this on Khaadem in 2023.
4:20 Ascot – Jersey Stakes (Group 3) (Class 1) (3yo) – California Dreamer 9/1 1pt WIN
Albany fifth CALIFORNIA DREAMER looks overpriced here particularly on the balance of her two-year-old form which saw her finish two lengths behind Commonwealth Cup hope Babouche in July. She was then only beaten a length over this trip behind Heavens Gate in G3 company, and proved to a degree she’s trained on when bolting up in a Dundalk maiden in February.
She weakened markedly in the Fred Darling in April, but bounced back to be beaten a length in G3 company at the Curragh. Before finishing a two length second to Lake Victoria in the Irish 1000 Guineas having forced the pace throughout. Nothing else got to her there including the Fred Darling winner, and a repeat performance down in trip could see him steal the win here.
5:00 Ascot – Wokingham Stakes (Heritage Handicap) (Class 2) (3yo+ 0-110) – Saint Lawrence 25/1 1pt EW 6 places
The 2023 winner SAINT LAWRENCE could only manage nineteenth in last year’s renewal, but little went right for him when keen and short of running room and I’d expect him to be much more competitive this time around from a 6lbs lower mark.
His subsequent form last term after the Wokingham read well, having been beaten a length in G3 company, before not disgraced in G1 company when four lengths behind Lazzat and only a length behind the second.
Another respectable G3 effort was proceeded by a two length eight in a Curragh handicap off joint top weight, and he’s 8lbs higher than that now. They’ve ran him on the all-weather or the last four starts and he looked in rude health on his penultimate effort when all dressed up with nowhere to go, finishing on the bridle and give one crack for good measure.
He’s on his lowest mark since 2021 and with the reapplied blinkers, he has to be considered with Colin Keane on board for the first time.
5:35 Ascot – Golden Gates Stakes (Handicap) (Class 2) (3yo 0-105) – Quai De Bethune 11/1 1pt EW 5 places
QUAI DE BETHUNE’s best furlong was his last one in the London Gold Cup over this trip at Newbury last month, and a stiffer test with a greater emphasis on staying may see him in a better light.
The son of Persian King was an eye-catcher in a back end Sandown maiden when behind Cosmic Year, and returned this year with a comfortable two length success over a mile at Kempton.
He bumped into some smart types subsequently, notably when five lengths behind Opera Ballo albeit just a neck behind the subsequent London Gold Cup winner, and six lengths behind the subsequent French Derby third Detain.
The London Gold Cup effort confirmed suspicions he won’t be at his best until going over further, and this may have been the plan given Andrew Balding won it with Foxes Tales in 2021.
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