Day three at Royal Ascot is another for punters to test themselves in big-field contests. Matty Sutcliffe has hunted value in five of the seven races to give you his best bets for Thursday at the royal meeting.
2:30 Ascot – Norfolk Stakes (Group 2) (Class 1) (2yo) – Afjan 9/1 1pt WIN
It could take something special to stop Charles Darwin from landing what looks a moderate enough Norfolk Stakes, but stall fifteen wouldn’t necessarily be a plus given the race has generally favoured the single figure draws of late and AFJAN is taken to topple the well touted favourite.
The son of Mehmas looked something out of the ordinary when displaying a sparkling turn of foot to charge down the outside a Chantilly on debut having been held up toward the rear for the most par. He pulled over a length clear from the Aga Khan favourite in second there who in turn pulled six lengths clear of the third.
It was as good a debut as we’ve seen in this lineup, and he’s more than bred for the job given both of his parents were runner up at this meeting in 2016 in their respective races.
3:05 Ascot – King George V Stakes (Heritage Handicap) (GBBPlus Race) (Class 2) (3yo 0-105) – Lightening Mann 14/1 1pt EW 5 places
Surprisingly only two of the last ten winners of this race had previously contested the London Gold Cup Handicap at Newbury earlier in the season, but that still bodes well enough for LIGHTENING MANN who gave a gallant front-running performance there, travelling well throughout and perhaps being held on to for a touch too long having been collared late on by the 11/4F Saddadd to lose by a neck.
Lightening Mann stuck to his task well there and that contest as ever is already working out, with the fifth beaten under a length at York next time out, the sixth cosily winning a maiden since now rated 88 and the seventh winning a handicap since now rated 86.
Channon’s charge previously landed a 0-95 at Newmarket on his penultimate start under a prominent ride, gamely fending off and rallying from the Godolphin trained Watching Starts who backed that effort up next time out, and the third won cosily at York next time out now rated 8lbs higher and 5/1 for this race. He’s only a pound worse off with that one which suggests he’s certainly overpriced and given his Nathaniel dam won over this distance, he can improve further for this trip for Jack Channon, whose old man won this with Elidor in 2013.
3:40 Ascot – Ribblesdale Stakes (Group 2) (Class 1) (3yo) – Ecstatic 20/1 0.5pt EW 4 places
Ryan Moore rarely chooses wrong for O’Brien in the Ribblesdale, having won four of the last nine renewals but I’m slightly surprised he’s jumped ship from ECSTATIC for Garden Of Eden, who has four lengths to find with Wayne Lordan’s mount on their Group 3 Curragh form.
Ecstatic split a pair of fillies subsequently second and third to Porta Fortuna next time out, and while she hasn’t gone on from that seasonal debut, there has been excuses. She reportedly didn’t handle the soft ground at Naas next time out, and she was given a rare misjudged ride by Ryan Moore in listed company at Newbury thereafter when not getting the original gap he wanted, and had to let the others get racing early before she saw daylight.
She finished off the race strongly under hands and heels there in the manner of one improving for further, and she’s bred to be much better than what we’ve seen thus far given she’s out of connections’ Group 1 winner and multiple Group 1 placed Magic Wand.
5:00 Ascot – Britannia Stakes (Heritage Handicap) (Class 2) (3yo 0-105) – Parole d’Oro 12/1 1pt WIN + Tribal Nation 22/1 0.5pt EW 4 places
Simon Crisford won this race with Ostilio (also tongue tied) in 2018 and bids to retain the Britannia Crown with the unexposed PAROLE D’ORO, who couldn’t quite sustain his challenge against the race fit Terroom giving him 2lbs at Thirsk when beaten 3/4L. He has 6lbs swing with that one now who’s also toward the fore of the market here, and the balance of his two year old form would also suggest this mark of 92 is more than workable.
I’d also like to chance TRIBAL NATION, who looks to have been carefully plotted for this contest after breaking his 2yo duck at Galway last season, pulling a length clear form Mississippi River giving him 7lbs who’s now rated 88.
If the Britannia was the plan, then connections had to mind a mark of 90 early on this season. He was sent to a Leopardstown Group 3 over seven furlongs and had travelled well prior to looking outpaced.
They then stepped him up to a mile off top weight in a Naas handicap and was given a tender looking ride. He was held up in rear throughout under Dylan Brown McMonagle and angled out wide for a run, but the first two home had got the jump on him early and he had to settle for plugging on into third. He was giving 9lbs to the winner who’s now rated 11lbs higher having gone in again next time out, and he looks to have been well placed here particularly being more than relieved of the burden of top weight.
6:10 Ascot – Buckingham Palace Stakes (Handicap) (Class 2) (3yo+ 0-105) – Northern Express 33/1 0.5pt EW 6 places
NORTHERN EXPRESS has been a stalwart in these big field handicaps over the years, and he finally landed a well deserved pot in the International over C&D off a pound higher, when never really looking like getting beaten from the front. He’s returned this season with three somewhat underwhelming efforts, but the latter pair were off top weight in mile handicaps, taking his record over the distance to just 1-14.
He was too keen over the trip when ridden uncharacteristically with restraint at York last time out, understandably not getting home over the mile. They’ve rode him in the same race the last season’s en route to the Buckingham Palace, but having ran well on each occasion he was risen 2lbs and 3lbs respectively, which won’t have aided his cause when finishing a length and six lengths behind the leader in this renewal.
He had to carry top-weight in last years’ renewal, whereas this year he carries 4lbs less. He generally runs a big race from in and around his mark particularly over these conditions, and this C&D winners has to be considered particularly with the yard running into some form.
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