The jumps season ends on Saturday, but Matty Sutcliffe believes there could be just one or two more outsiders to land a massive final payday before the flat takes over…
1:50 Sandown – Josh Gifford Novices’ Handicap Chase (GBB Race) (Class 2) (5yo+) – Inedit Star 12/1 1pt EW 3 places
INEDIT STAR was an eye-catcher in the Red Rum Handicap at the Aintree Festival last time out, jumping fluently throughout and staying on well to grab third a stride before the last. The race was dominated by the front running Sans Bruit, who franked the form well next time out in landing the Sussex Champion Chase from a 9lbs higher mark.
We can draw a line through his 18-length fifth here on his penultimate start given he bled from the nose, but prior to that he was only beaten a length in a three runner affair, with the winner going in since now rated 8lbs higher and the second has gone up 5lbs having won the Greatwood Gold Cup last time out.
He stayed on well there, as he did when a six length second to Fringill Dike in a 13k handicap at Bangor, who’s rated 8lbs higher now after winning since. While he was beaten seven lengths when last trying this trip, that came over hurdles and the manner within which he stayed on at Aintree suggests this 2m4f distance is worth another try off what is effectively bottom weight.
3:00 Sandown – bet365 Select Hurdle (Grade 2) (GBB Race) (Class 1) (4yo+) – Take No Chances 13/2 1pt WIN
TAKE NO CHANCES has drastically improved this season, with her form figures reading 3152133 and her sole effort from finishing out of the frame was in the Fighting Fifth, impressively won by Sir Gino where she was unfavourably pitched in rear, getting each of the last three flights wrong in the process.
She bolted up in Listed company prior to that, and her two length third at Cheltenham in December reads strongly now with the winner taking the Martin Pipe, the second winning the old Betfair Hurdle, and the fourth bagging listed honours two starts later.
She then won a G2 mares race at Ascot giving a pound to Kargese, and while that one mightn’t have been fully tuned up, she still franked the form when readily winning the County Hurdle next time out.
Take No Chances took her form to a new level when a nine length third in the Mares Hurdle at Cheltenham, with Lossiemouth a devastating winner. She was only a length behind the 151 rated second, and she backed up that run when third to Lossiemouth again at Aintree, albeit finishing eight lengths behind Wodhooh this time around.
Given she was ahead of Break My Soul there, she looks overpriced with Kitzbuhel who was only two lengths ahead of that one in the Red Mills Trial. This will be an easier test than her last two, and given her form around right handed tracks reads 1233121, Sandown should suit her well.
3:35 Sandown – bet365 Celebration Chase (Grade 1) (GBB Race) (Class 1) (5yo+) – Harper’s Brook 100/1 0.5pt EW 2 places
Not for one minute do I think HARPER’S BROOK can win this race, but it’s far from out of the realms of possibility he could nick a place. Jonbon is the most likely winner of this once more, as his record here reads 11111 including this race twice, but outside of that there’s questions about the rest.
Il Etait Temps has to prove welfare from a year off, Energumene was put in his place by Jonbon at Ascot and pulled up in the Champion Chase, Edwardstone is 0-7 and looks a shadow of his former self, Master Chewy benefitted from a pace collapse in the Game Spirit and was put in his place in the Ryanair, and Unexpected Party failed in his ‘Gold Cup’ when second in the Grand Annual last time out.
Harper’s Brook is certainly the least talented here on ratings, but he’ll almost certainly be dropped out in rear and a fiercely run two miles on good ground is exactly what he needs to unearth his undoubtedly high class ability.
He has his numerous quirks, but his career best RPR came over C&D last season and if he’s ridden to pick up the pieces here, there is a world in which he comes passed beaten horses late on and can grab second.
4:10 Sandown – bet365 Gold Cup Handicap Chase (Premier Handicap) (GBB Race) (Class 1) (5yo+) – Minella Cocooner 6/1 2pt WIN
The addition of Grangeclare West in here puts over half of these from out of the weights, but it certainly favours last year’s winner MINELLA COCOONER who although is 2lbs higher in the ratings this time around, he carries 8lbs less and looks primed to win back to back renewals.
He was a bet for the column in the Grand National and ran a huge race to finish seventh despite Jonathan Burke’s saddle slipping early on in the race, and had he been able to ride him with more control then he’d have arguably finished closer.
That said, he potentially shaped like a non-stayer when fading late on and the return to this distance can show him in a better light. His form this season can’t be taken on face value as he’s been hidden away in grade one contests, but he was only eight lengths behind the subsequent Grand National winner in the Bobbyjo Chase when the handbrake was let loose.
His form on good ground when ‘off’ reads 11221, and Danny Mullins retains the ride whose record on him reads 12331594.
4:45 Sandown – bet365 Handicap Hurdle (GBB Race) (Class 2) (4yo+ 0-145) – Electric Mason 12/1 1pt EW
ELECTRIC MASON struggled to get competitive in the Martin Pipe last time out but he was unable to adopt his usual prominent tactics and he can find this 0-145 much easier, with him effectively 5lbs lower this time.
His official mark of 130 looks workable given his earlier form this season. He beat Laurens Bay in November who latterly took the ever competitive G3 EBF Novice Handicap Hurdle Final here last month, and he was only beaten four lengths by The New Lion next time out, with the the subsequent Sidney Banks winner Califet En Vol in second. He was beaten further by The New Lion next time out, but he was carrying 5lbs more this time around which actually makes the performance in the Challow a notable one given his earlier defeat to The New Lion, and the Challow form has worked out in places outside the winner with the second winning well since now rated 143 after his Albert Bartlett fifth, the third filled that spot again in a similar event next time out, and the fourth is now rated 143 after his 1/2L second in Top Novices Hurdle at Aintree last time out.
He can jump to his right and his form this way around reads 231 so Sandown can suit, and if he can rediscover his earlier form from this season then I’d struggle to see him out of the frame in this much easier event than last time out.
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